Winners, losers, takeaways from Day 1 of the 2022 MLB Draft
The first 80 picks of the 2022 MLB Draft are complete. Let's break down the major storylines and pick out some winners and losers from Day 1 of the event, which now opens the midsummer festivities.
Sons keep shining
Offspring of former MLBers have already started taking over MLB. There's Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette ... the list is always growing. And it'll get significantly longer very soon.
By calling Jackson Holliday's name first overall, the Baltimore Orioles became the first team to select a son of a former big leaguer at No. 1 since the Seattle Mariners drafted Ken Griffey Jr. in 1987. The Orioles will undoubtedly be hoping Matt Holliday's son continues to draw comparisons to The Kid.
It didn't stop there, though, as the Arizona Diamondbacks landed Druw Jones, son of five-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winner Andruw, at No. 2. It's the first time two second-generation players were taken at the top of the draft.
Even further, Justin Crawford - son of Carl - went 17th overall to the Philadelphia Phillies, while Cam Collier - son of Lou - went 18th to the Cincinnati Reds. (As a footnote, Elijah Green, who went fifth to the Washington Nationals, is the son of two-time Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green.)
Moneyball was right
For a deeper dive into how the Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta-led draft revolution has been vindicated, check out our recent breakdown from Travis Sawchik.
We're just going to focus on one facet today: pitchers. This is the first year in recent memory that fewer than 10 hurlers went in the opening round, with nine getting selected. Interestingly, high school aces remained relatively well represented despite seemingly not being a great class heading into the event.
Year | Pitchers in Round 1 | HS pitchers in Round 1 |
---|---|---|
2022 | 9 | 4 |
2021 | 14 | 5 |
2020 | 11 | 2 |
2019 | 10 | 3 |
2018 | 11 | 7 |
2017 | 14 | 5 |
2016 | 10 | 6 |
2015 | 10 | 4 |
2014 | 15 | 5 |
2013 | 11 | 4 |
2012 | 13 | 5 |
What is common knowledge now was revolutionary 20 years ago: Arms are fickle and incredibly hard to project. Thus, one of the central tenets of the Moneyball draft strategy was to avoid them - particularly high school arms - with high picks. In fact, Michael Lewis' book famously featured Beane deriding the New York Mets that year for using their No. 15 pick on prep lefty Scott Kazmir. Pitchers have fallen further down draft boards since then, but never as far as this year.
One could argue, too, that if the Mets didn't fail to sign their top pick last year, 2021 would've been a strong contender against 2019 for the worst pitching draft in history.
Year | 1st pitcher taken | Pick | 1st HS pitcher taken | Pick |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | Kumar Rocker | 3rd | Dylan Lesko | 15th |
2021 | Jack Leiter | 2nd | Jackson Jobe | 3rd |
2020 | Max Meyer | 3rd | Mick Abel | 15th |
2019 | Nick Lodolo | 7th | Quinn Priester | 18th |
2018 | Casey Mize | 1st | Ryan Weathers | 7th |
2017 | Hunter Greene | 2nd | Hunter Greene | 2nd |
2016 | Ian Anderson | 3rd | Ian Anderson | 3rd |
2015 | Dillon Tate | 4th | Kolby Allard | 14th |
2014 | Brady Aiken | 1st | Brady Aiken | 1st |
2013 | Mark Appel | 1st | Kohl Stewart | 4th |
2012 | Kevin Gausman | 4th | Max Fried | 7th |
Winners
Kumar Rocker
Rocker is almost undoubtedly the biggest winner here. Forced to take a year off after going unsigned by the Mets last year, Rocker re-entered the draft as a 22-year-old who had undergone a shoulder procedure last fall. To put things into perspective, Hunter Greene is now an impact starter for the Reds and is merely three months older than Rocker.
Not only did Rocker not have to settle for less money from the Mets in 2021 after they uncovered some questionable medicals while drafting him 10th overall, but the right-hander wound up going even higher this year and will join fellow Vanderbilt product Jack Leiter in the Texas Rangers' system.
The Rangers come out of this as winners as well, reportedly landing Rocker on an under-slot deal. It's a brilliant bit of work after they were forced to surrender a pair of high picks and had their bonus pool drastically reduced as a result of signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien this past offseason.
MLB and the draft itself
The draft continues to grow more watchable for fans, this time also featuring a bit of Hollywood's glitz and glamor. More prospects are showing up, showcasing their personality in live interviews, and interacting with the crowd.
As with baseball's on-field product, there was a pace-of-play issue this year. Eighty picks were made on Day 1, which is probably too many to cram into the first-day broadcast. The event began at 7:00 p.m. ET and continued for 5 1/2 hours before ending at 12:30 a.m. ET. That's more than four minutes per pick, which is far too long for a draft where trades aren't even allowed.
Still, it's a step in the right direction to making the draft at least a somewhat marquee event for MLB.
Losers
Brock Porter
Depending on who you asked prior to the draft, Porter was either the top high school pitcher on the board or second behind Dylan Lesko, though most evaluators had Lesko slightly lower due to his ongoing recovery from Tommy John surgery.
Lesko wound up being the first prep pitcher off the board, regardless, going 15th to the San Diego Padres. Meanwhile, Porter is still waiting for his name to be called heading into Day 2, and as a Scott Boras client, could end up going to Clemson after falling out of the first round.
In all likelihood, Porter will now follow through on his commitment to the Tigers, with whom he'll work on improving his stock before re-entering the draft in a couple years - likely as a sophomore.
Rockies
Zigging while other teams are zagging is usually something to applaud - especially in baseball. So a club taking a pitcher with an early pick in a year when arms seemed to be overlooked felt like a possible route to success.
Enter the Colorado Rockies, who decided to burn their 10th overall pick on safe but ultimately uninspiring Gonzaga right-hander Gabriel Hughes, the third-ranked college arm in the class. And while his numbers are good, a lot of that production came against inferior opponents.
Cade Horton, the top college pitcher in the class, according to MLB Pipeline, was already off the board. However, it would take another 38 picks before the second-best collegiate hurler, Connor Prielipp, went to the Twins. That suggests there wasn't much value in the Rockies jumping at the chance to select Hughes.
The Rockies entered the draft with the fifth-highest bonus pool, which should be used to take guys who are tougher to sign. That means prep pitchers with higher ceilings like Porter, Dylan Lesko, Brandon Barriera, Robby Snelling, and Jackson Ferris - who were all ranked higher than Hughes - should've got a more serious look from Colorado.
Perhaps the Rockies intentionally avoided high school pitchers since they haven't fared well with those in the past. The last time they went with a prep arm early was Riley Pint at No. 4 in 2016, and he's still struggling to progress.
In fairness, it wasn't all bad. Landing outfielder Sterlin Thompson, who fell into their lap at No. 31, was a nice way to leverage one of their extra picks. The same goes for polished college outfielder Jordan Beck at No. 38. But a lot is expected of a team with three picks in the top 40, particularly when that team has had so much trouble drafting and developing pitchers.