Breaking down the historic AL MVP race between Judge, Ohtani

We're just over halfway through the MLB season and we've already been treated to superstar trade rumors, electric rookie debuts, and some all-time pitching performances. But with each passing game, it feels more likely that this season will be defined by one epic showdown: Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani.

Those two stars have been the story of the season, posting historic numbers to fuel one of the more compelling AL MVP races in recent memory. As of Friday, Judge was dealing as the -134 favorite at Barstool Sportsbook, though Ohtani was favored just a few weeks ago and could easily swing this race at any moment.

Which one is worth betting to win AL MVP? Here's the case for each:

Case for Aaron Judge

Judge's case to win baseball's highest honor is straightforward but profound: he hits a lot of home runs.

Sounds simple enough, right? In today's game, that alone can propel an MVP case, and nobody is better at leaving the yard than Judge. Entering Friday, the Yankees slugger had smacked an MLB-best 39 home runs in just 97 games. That's seven more than any other batter in either league and equals his total from the entire 2021 season - when he finished fourth in MVP voting.

Let's put that number into context. Judge is hitting roughly one homer every two and a half games, and he's on pace to finish the season with 64 home runs if he plays every game down the stretch. That's only happened five times in MLB history - all between 1998 and 2001, when steroid use was rampant - and two resulted in MVP honors.

That's not all Judge is doing, though. He also leads the majors in runs (82) and total bases (241) and leads the AL in RBIs (83); his .653 slugging percentage ranks second in the league. He's also hitting .293 at the plate, which ranks 16th in the AL and third among players with at least 15 homers.

He doesn't show any signs of slowing, either. His walk-off home run on Thursday was his sixth home run in eight games since the All-Star break - during which he's hit .387 with a ridiculous 1.519 OPS. Good luck catching up to that pace.

Case for Shohei Ohtani

While we've never seen a home run pace like this outside of the steroid era, we've also never seen a player quite like Ohtani - who is arguably having a better season than the one that earned him unanimous MVP honors a year ago.

Let's remember how that race played out. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. threatened for the AL Triple Crown in one of the better offensive seasons we've ever seen. How many MVP votes did he garner? Zero. That's how special Ohtani was last season, and he's been arguably even better this year.

Here's how ridiculous the Angels' two-way sensation has been through 96 games. As of Friday, Ohtani was tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win AL Cy Young (+1200), ranking second in fWAR (3.3) and FIP (2.37) and leading all qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (13.1). That's just as a pitcher. As a hitter? He also ranks ninth in home runs (21), eighth in RBIs (59), and 14th in stolen bases (11).

He hasn't been quite as prolific at the plate as he was last year, but he's been arguably the most electric pitcher in baseball - as evidenced by his 11-strikeout performance in six innings on Thursday. Had Ohtani won that game, he would have been the first MLB player since Babe Ruth to win 10 games as a pitcher with 10 home runs as a batter. He seems like a near-lock to reach that mark within a few weeks, which would add yet another exclamation point to his historic campaign.

Verdict

At this rate, both players will reach rarified air with their 2022 seasons, but only one will win MVP. And oddsmakers can't seem to make up their mind on which it will be.

Truthfully, we can't either, and this will almost certainly come down to which player has a better stat line and more "signature moments" down the stretch. That seemingly favors Judge, whose Yankees own the best record in the AL while Ohtani's Angels appear destined to miss the playoffs once again.

Of course, we've seen players win MVP on losing teams before - Ohtani did it last year - but at some point it'll cost Ohtani to put up what many voters may consider to be empty numbers on a team with a losing record. It's also incredibly hard to win back-to-back MVPs; only 13 players have done it in MLB history and none since 2012-13 (Miguel Cabrera).

Could we see that from Ohtani? Perhaps, though his brilliance comes in the shadow of Judge's dominant run under the lights of Yankee Stadium. It's not just the pinstripes boosting his profile, either: even Ohtani's combined fWAR as a pitcher (3.3) and hitter (1.9) pale in comparison to what we've seen from Judge (5.8) in virtually the same number of games.

If Judge's home run pace falters, his candidacy will, too, which would open the door for Ohtani to steal the top spot with another dominant pitching performance or two. But Judge has been a run-producing machine for one of the best teams in baseball, which gives him the nod in our eyes in a race that's truly too early to call.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].