The Juan Soto sweepstakes are over.
After weeks of speculation about the 23-year-old star's future ahead of Tuesday's MLB trade deadline, the Nationals agreed to trade Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for a package that includes top prospects MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, and James Wood.
The blockbuster deal instantly vaults the Padres into title contention and prompted a swift reaction in the betting market, where San Diego's title odds were nearly halved to 12-1 - the sixth-shortest odds of any team to win the World Series.
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +325 |
| New York Yankees | +350 |
| Houston Astros | +425 |
| Atlanta Braves | +700 |
| New York Mets | +700 |
| San Diego Padres | +1200 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +1400 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +2000 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +3000 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +3300 |
| Chicago White Sox | +3500 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +3500 |
| Seattle Mariners | +3500 |
| Minnesota Twins | +4000 |
| San Francisco Giants | +7500 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +8000 |
| Boston Red Sox | +8500 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +25000 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +50000 |
| Miami Marlins | +50000 |
| Texas Rangers | +50000 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +100000 |
| Chicago Cubs | +100000 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +100000 |
| Colorado Rockies | +100000 |
| Detroit Tigers | +100000 |
| Kansas City Royals | +100000 |
| Oakland Athletics | +100000 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +100000 |
| Washington Nationals | +100000 |
We highlighted the Padres as a potential second-half value just two weeks ago, when they were still dealing at 22-1 to win it all. Since then, San Diego landed Brewers reliever Josh Hader - who leads MLB in saves (29) - and secured the biggest prize of all in Soto, who slots into a lineup that also features MVP contender Manny Machado and young superstar Fernando Tatis Jr.
Those three will anchor a Padres lineup that had ranked in the bottom half of the majors in most metrics entering Tuesday. Injuries have played a key role there: Machado (ankle) missed time in late June and had hit just .206 since, while Tatis (wrist) has yet to make his season debut. Those two should be healthy down the stretch alongside Soto, who ranks fifth in the NL in OPS (.894) and already led the majors in walks (91) before being surrounded by superstar bats.
While Soto's arrival should help reshape San Diego's order, this team already had a title-worthy pitching staff even before adding Hader out of the bullpen. The Padres entered Tuesday ranked eighth in ERA (3.74) and FIP (3.73), and their opponent wOBA (.295) is fifth-best in the bigs. They won't have emerging righty Gore after dealing him to Washington, but a rotation anchored by Yu Darvish (3.24 ERA), Sean Manaea (4.25), Blake Snell (4.43), and newly inked ace Joe Musgrove (2.65) should be enough to support San Diego's star trio at the plate.
Even with this week's moves, the Friars still lag behind the division rival Dodgers (+325), who own the best record in baseball (70-33) as of Tuesday. They also own an 11.5-game lead over the Padres in the NL West, forcing San Diego to claim one of the three wild-card spots just to punch its ticket to the postseason. The team currently owns a 3.5-game lead over the Phillies and Cardinals for the second spot.
Unsurprisingly, the move did very little to affect the title outlook of the last-place Nationals, who are tied for the longest odds to win the World Series and owned the worst record in baseball (36-69) even before trading their franchise star. Tuesday's move is reminiscent of Washington's deadline dump from a year ago, which nearly propelled the then-favorite Dodgers to the World Series if not for a late rally by the eventual champion Braves.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
