Signing Carlos Rodon: Pros, cons, predictions

Carlos Rodon bet on himself last offseason when he signed a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants that included a player option for 2023. The left-hander put together a career season and is poised to secure a lucrative long-term contract this winter after exercising his opt-out.

Let's break down some of the pros and cons of signing the talented but oft-injured Rodon, as well as make some predictions about where he might land.

Pros

Rodon has an electric arm. The 29-year-old averaged nearly 96 mph on his fastball in 2022 and also boasts an elite slider. That nasty one-two punch enabled him to set career highs in K/9 (11.98), ERA (2.88), and fWAR (6.2).

Historically, teams are frequently drawn toward left-handed starting pitchers who can miss bats. Robbie Ray signed a five-year, $115-million contract last year, coming off a similarly dominant campaign as the one Rodon just authored.

Rodon curbed his home-run rate over the past two campaigns. In each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Rodon allowed fewer than one homer per nine innings after allowing more than one per inning from 2016-20.

Set to enter his age-30 season, Rodon likely has a number of productive years in front of him, provided he can stay healthy.

Cons

Injuries and durability are the biggest red flags associated with handing Rodon a long-term deal. The hurler eclipsed 170 innings and 30 starts for the first time in his eight-year career last season. Despite those concerns, Rodon is reportedly looking to secure at least seven years on his new contract, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Rodon previously missed large stretches of time due to injury and has undergone Tommy John and shoulder surgeries.

Pitching in the friendly confines of Oracle Park in San Francisco and the NL West likely paid a part in helping Rodon to a career season. Rodon went 8-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 15 home starts, compared to a 6-6 record with a 3.73 ERA across 16 road outings.

Potential suitors

San Francisco Giants: Why mess with a good thing? Rodon clearly felt comfortable pitching in the Bay Area despite San Francisco's disappointing season. The Giants are armed with money to spend and have a lot of question marks in the rotation behind stalwart right-hander Logan Webb. The Giants missed out on signing Aaron Judge, so a pivot to keeping Rodon in the fold would be a sensible alternative for Farhan Zaidi.

New York Yankees: The Yankees averted disaster when they inked Judge to a monstrous nine-year contract. However, general manager Brian Cashman can't be complacent. He must look to address other areas on the roster, and adding Rodon would be a tremendous boon to an already strong rotation in New York. The Yankees reportedly like Rodon's makeup and believe the left-hander would handle the pressure of pitching at Yankee Stadium.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are at an important point in their rebuild as they look to return to playoff contention after a few lean years. The front office made a splash last offseason with the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. Cubs starting pitchers ranked in the bottom third of the league in K/9, fWAR, and ERA in 2022. President Jed Hoyer said the club will be looking for pitchers who can provide quality innings and make the club better. The addition of Jameson Taillon was a nice floor-raising move, but adding Rodon would give manager David Ross a legitimate ace to build his rotation around.

Los Angeles Dodgers: If a reunion with the Giants doesn't materialize and Rodon wants to stay in the NL West, the Dodgers could emerge as a strong contender. Rodon struck out 18 and allowed just a .177 batting average in three starts against the Dodgers last season. With the injury to Walker Buehler, the Dodgers are likely to be aggressive in adding at least one more impact arm after bringing back Clayton Kershaw on a one-year deal.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have plenty of needs to address this offseason but improving their rotation is near the top of the list. Red Sox hurlers ranked 21st in innings pitched, 22nd in ERA, and 18th in fWAR last season. The club is hoping for a return to form and health for Chris Sale and a breakout season from Brayan Bello. Even if both of those things come to fruition, the Red Sox will still need more impact from their rotation.

Prediction: Rodon signs with the Yankees on a six-year, $140-million contract.