2023 Baseball HOF preview: Can these candidates finally make it?

With the Baseball Hall of Fame's class of 2023 announcement approaching, it's time to review this year's ballot. Our final installment looks at the five returnees whose cases continue to trend upward and have the best chance at induction this year. Can any of them finally make it?

Todd Helton

Position: 1B
Teams: Rockies
JAWS: 54.2 (15th at 1B)
WAR: 61.8 (17th)
Year on ballot: 5th (52% in 2022)

It took Larry Walker's election for voters to finally wake up to Helton's case, but it shouldn't have come to that. Helton, the Rockies franchise icon, absolutely raked at his peak, averaging 35 homers a year during his first seven full campaigns while winning four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. His best season came in 2000 when he led the NL in hits (216), doubles (59), RBIs (147), and all four slash-line categories. He's one of only three players with multiple seasons of 100 extra-base hits, alongside Hall of Famers Chuck Klein and Lou Gehrig.

Yes, Helton spent his entire career playing home games at Coors Field, a factor that was held against him even when he played. But he's no different from any other offensive superstar who padded their numbers in an extremely friendly home environment. Gehrig and Babe Ruth spent decades hitting bombs into Yankee Stadium's short porch that was built specifically to aid Ruth. Philadelphia's Baker Bowl - a long-forgotten bandbox featuring a 280-foot right-field fence - essentially turned Klein into a Hall of Famer. Helton absolutely had the Coors advantage, but he still had to hit the ball, which he did with authority.

Helton may not have reached any round counting numbers normally associated with first basemen, but he put together a resume that stands with most of his peers. He scores above the positional average in JAWS and seven-year peak WAR while sitting a few points below average in career WAR. These facts were always there for anyone to see, but it was only once Walker cracked the Mile High wall for Rockies players that voters finally started to come around on Helton. In the two years since, Helton's overall support has jumped 78%, with a surge among private voters specifically helping him pass the 50% mark last January. His numbers on public ballots this cycle (79% with 28 gained votes as of Jan. 20) suggest he's now benefitting greatly from the backlog having cleared up spots on many ballots.

It's starting to look obvious that Helton's time is coming. Sneaking in this year would still be a surprise, but he should end up in perfect position to get a phone call in 2024.

Andruw Jones

Position: CF
Teams: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
JAWS: 54.6 (11th at CF)
WAR: 62.7 (14th)
Year on ballot: 6th (41.1% in 2022)

Jones has a legitimate case as the greatest defensive center fielder ever. His 10 Gold Gloves - only Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente won more in the outfield - don't even tell the story of how incredible he was. You have to see it for yourself:

Jones' defense credibly builds his entire Hall of Fame case. If he hadn't declined so quickly at age 31 or spent his final two seasons in Japan, he likely would have reached 2,000 hits and maybe even taken a run at 500 homers. He still has several very good individual offensive seasons, most notably his 51-homer campaign in 2005. But without the round numbers, his defense carries the load. It's the reason it's taken so long for voters to wake up to his case.

Jones started very slowly, failing to crack 8% of the vote in his first two tries before support began to grow steadily. This year, he's clearly benefitting from both the thin crop of first-time candidates - he's already gained 23 votes from returning voters who ignored him last year - as well as the changing electorate, with 87.5% of first-time voters giving him a checkmark. Younger voters, many of whom would have grown up watching Jones, are more likely to be swayed by this kind of non-traditional Hall of Fame case. Even if his numbers once again take a slight hit among private voters, Jones is tracking to eclipse the 50% mark on Jan. 24 with four years left in front of the writers. There's plenty of reason for optimism in Curacao.

Scott Rolen

Position: 3B
Teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Reds
JAWS: 56.9 (10th at 3B)
WAR: 70.1 (10th)
Year on ballot: 6th (63.2% in 2022)

Perhaps the best defensive third baseman of his era, Rolen played the position with natural elegance. His eight Gold Gloves rank third at the position, and he's third among third basemen in the fielding runs metric, trailing only the great Brooks Robinson and eventual inductee Adrian Beltre. But he wasn't a one-trick pony. Rolen never led in any major offensive category but was a consistent and excellent hitter and places ninth among primary third basemen (minimum 7,000 plate appearances) in OPS+ and fifth in slugging.

As voters started to recognize his brilliance, Rolen began a truly incredible jump up the ballot that's about to pay off. He started at 10.2% in Year 1 before a series of sudden spikes bumped him to 63.2% last year, a total that trailed only 2022 inductee David Ortiz and final-year controversial candidates Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. That set Rolen up to take advantage of this year's thinner crop and complete his climb.

Indeed, his public vote totals have surged in January following a very slow start, jumping him to 79.6% in the tracker. Reason for optimism, to be sure, although a closer look shows that he's far from in the clear. Rolen's net gain on the tracker is just 11 thus far, suggesting - as The Athletic's Jayson Stark first theorized in November - the correlation between continued Rolen voters and former supporters of Bonds, Clemens, and Curt Schilling. He still doesn't seem to be getting enough new support, at least publicly, compared to Jones or Helton.

Rolen is the only man who can stop another Hall of Fame shutout on Tuesday, and the margin will likely be razor-thin on either side of 75%. Here's hoping the electorate does its job and finally puts him in.

Gary Sheffield

Position: OF/3B
Teams: Brewers, Padres, Marlins, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Tigers, Mets
JAWS: 49.3 (24th at RF)
WAR: 60.5 (18th)
Year on ballot: 9th (40.6% in 2022)

For a player as supremely talented and intimidating at the plate as Sheffield was, it's taken a long time for his career to start gaining recognition. His support is finally picking up, but is it too late?

Sheffield was a natural hitter with raw power that put him in the 500 home run club, as well as great contact abilities that won him a batting title. He never struck out more than 83 times in a season and finished top-10 in home runs seven times. In addition to raw numbers that should please traditionalists, he ranks top-50 all time in OPS+, 21st in walks, and was an MVP finalist three times. Sheffield also anchored the Marlins' 1997 World Series-winning lineup and reached the playoffs six times.

Several factors contributed to his slow start in voting. First, he was awful defensively, to the point that his porous glovework at multiple positions significantly detracts from his overall metrics despite his bat. Had Sheffield even held his own defensively, he'd be much closer to the average Hall of Fame right fielder. He also has one connection to PEDs, having admitted to using a cortisone cream containing testosterone in 2002 that was given to him by Greg Anderson, the trainer at the center of the BALCO scandal. Sheffield said he only used the cream once and stopped immediately after finding out it was a steroid; he also never failed a drug test after MLB began its testing program in 2004. Finally, his outspokenness, brashness with the media, and occasional penchant for controversy may still cause some voters, especially in the older guard, to shy away.

Sheffield finally started getting some of the bump he needed the last two years, and the cleared-out ballot is helping him this year - he's already gained 24 votes - but he needs more. His numbers will almost certainly drop when the private ballots are counted. Still, at this moment, he's setting up to be one of this year's big winners if things break right.

Billy Wagner

Position: RP
Teams: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
JAWS: 23.7 (20th at RP)
R-JAWS: 24.9 (6th)
WAR: 27.7 (14th)
Year on ballot: 8th (51% in 2022)

A reliever really has to stand out from the pack to be considered for the Hall of Fame, and even then, it's often difficult to evaluate them properly. Wagner stood out during his career as one of baseball's premier closers and is among the best southpaw relievers ever.

Among his credentials: "Billy Wags" ranks sixth all time in saves, has a lower WHIP than Mariano Rivera (albeit in fewer innings), and owns the highest K/9 rate among pitchers with at least 800 innings since 1901, per FanGraphs' Jay Jaffe. He never led in saves but ranked top-10 in 10 of 16 seasons and even cracked the WAR leaderboard once.

On the other side, Wagner's 903 innings is a very low total, even for a one-inning reliever; he'd be the first pitcher (excluding Negro Leaguers) to make it with fewer than 1,000 big-league innings. He ranks low in both WAR and traditional JAWS score, although Jaffe's new "R-JAWS" metric - which offsets starting pitcher WAR to help better evaluate relievers - bumps him up to sixth, with only five Hall of Famers ahead of him. Wagner also struggled mightily in the playoffs and never closed for a World Series-winning club.

Wagner's overall body of work has finally started to gain some recognition. Perhaps aided in part by Lee Smith's 2019 election, his support has steadily climbed in the last three years and crossed the all-important 50% plateau - which usually foreshadows eventual election - in 2022. Another climb is surely in store this year, and he's already gained 26 net votes this cycle. With only two years left, it appears as though he might finally be getting the breaks he needs at the exact right moment.