2023 MLB mock draft: Skenes vs. Crews, who goes No. 1?

The 2023 MLB Draft gets underway July 9. Here's a look at how the first round, featuring 28 selections, could shake out.

Each pick is accompanied by its league-mandated value, the total bonus pool for that particular team, and where that bonus pool ranks in MLB. Individual pick values are added up to calculate a team's total bonus pool. Clubs are allowed to sign prospects above (over slot) or below (under slot) the expected value of the pick but can't exceed their total bonus pool when signing all drafted players.

Every team will make at least one selection in the first round other than the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, whose first-round pick drops 10 spots as a result of exceeding the first threshold of the luxury tax by $40 million or more.

Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU

Pick value: $9,721,000
Total bonus pool: $16,185,700 (1st)

There are rumors heading into the draft that high-powered agent Scott Boras is telling the Pirates not to take his client Dylan Crews, which could lead them to select his LSU teammate and ace Skenes. If the Bucs decide Crews is their guy, there's little recourse for Boras - Crews wouldn't go back to college and risk injury just to re-enter the draft next year. But it's considered a near coin flip for who's the better prospect between Crews and Skenes, and Pittsburgh might opt away from the headache.

Dylan Crews, OF, LSU

Pick value: $8,998,500
Total bonus pool: $14,502,400 (3rd)

The Nationals will almost certainly take whichever of the LSU two is left, but that doesn't mean Crews is a consolation prize. The outfielder basically went wire-to-wire as the class' best and most polished prospect. He was probably a first-round talent coming out of high school but wound up slipping in the pandemic-shortened draft as teams opted for collegiate players. This is Crews' time, and he brings a 70-grade hit tool and 60-grade power the Nats would love to build around.

Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

Pick value: $8,341,700
Total bonus pool: $15,747,200 (2nd)

It's Scott Harris' first draft as the Tigers' president of baseball operations after previously serving as the Giants' general manager. He oversaw some bold picks during his tenure in San Francisco but frequently opted to take a polished college bat. We're sticking with that trend with Langford, who might have the best power in the class. If Detroit wants to get a little crazy and flex the league's second-highest bonus pool, perhaps the club goes with Virginia catcher Kyle Teel or two-way prep star Bryce Eldridge in hopes of going over slot later in the draft.

Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (N.C.)

Pick value: $7,698,000
Total bonus pool: $9,925,300 (16th)

Langford seems exactly like the type of player the Rangers would want, but one of the top three teams would likely have to take a high schooler for the Florida product to slip to No. 4. Instead, we've got the Rangers taking the top prep bat on the board in Jenkins, who seems very advanced for an 18-year-old. However, the Rangers are a bit of a wild card here. Despite picking fourth, they have only the 16th-largest bonus pool. Texas could be forced to get creative.

Max Clark, OF, Franklin HS (Ind.)

Pick value: $7,139,700
Total bonus pool: $14,345,600 (4th)

The Twins have a history of success drafting prep outfielders in the first round, selecting Alex Kirilloff in 2016 after picking Byron Buxton second overall in 2012. Clark is arguably better than Jenkins, with higher grades in run, arm, and fielding. The Vanderbilt commit looks like a sure bet for Minnesota if he's still available. Gatorade's National Baseball Player of the Year has been mentioned as a wild card to go first overall if the Pirates spread out their bonus pool money.

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

Pick value: $6,634,000
Total bonus pool: $14,255,600 (5th)

The A's have spent the last seven years loading their farm system with position players selected in the first round, so the timing feels right for them to choose a college arm. Dollander and Rhett Lowder are the top collegiate pitchers available after Skenes. Dollander's arsenal features a 99-mph fastball and a wipeout slider, but he comes with command concerns. The Tennessee grad has front-end starter stuff and could jump into Oakland's rotation in the not-too-distant future.

Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (Ore.)

Pick value: $6,275,200
Total bonus pool: $13,785,200 (6th)

With the A's opting for a college arm, that leaves Meyer - arguably the best pitcher in the draft after Skenes - for the Reds to gobble up. The 6-foot-5 righty is already capable of touching triple digits regularly and still hasn't fully grown into his frame. This pick would be oddly similar to when Cincinnati drafted Hunter Greene in the first round in 2017. That worked out pretty well, so why not go back to the well?

Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

Pick value: $5,980,100
Total bonus pool: $12,313,500 (9th)

This is J.J. Picollo's first draft at the helm since being named general manager and executive vice president of the Royals. Expecting any substantial change in Kansas City's draft strategy would be foolish since Picollo was former team president Dayton Moore's right-hand man. We've got the Royals opting for a shortstop with premium contact skills. It's not a common first-round target for them, and they could opt for more pitching. But, as an organization, the Royals have shown an interest in players like Wilson.

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

Pick value: $5,716,900
Total bonus pool: $11,909,800 (10th)

Despite their general inability to develop any, the Rockies love taking pitching early. However, Lowder seems like a great organizational fit. The righty has a repeatable delivery and has shown an ability to induce weak-contact groundballs. Lowder may not make it this low, and Colorado could have its eye on Meyer if he slips. The Rockies have also loved picking prep hitters in this range, so this could be the ceiling for Colin Houck.

Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Fla.)

Pick value: $5,475,300
Total bonus pool: $12,829,600 (8th)

Nimmala is one of the most intriguing prospects on the board. His development has been relatively non-linear, he doesn't have a long track record, and he'll be one of the youngest players selected at 17 years old. Scouts who like Nimmala seem to be high on him, and he might go surprisingly early. But there are a lot of other scouts who seem averse to the risk, as he's a very raw hitter.

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

Pick value: $5,253,000
Total bonus pool: $8,328,900 (23rd)

Drafting for need in baseball rarely happens, but the Angels have done it in recent years. They'll likely continue doing it if they think it means pushing their team closer to immediate contention to retain Shohei Ohtani. It seems likely that L.A. will take a pitcher who might be close to MLB-ready, and Waldrep is a reasonable target. The Florida righty doesn't have nearly the command of the zone that Reid Detmers flaunted in his draft year, but he might have a slightly higher ceiling. If Lowder or Dollander slip, expect the Halos to go with one of them over Waldrep.

Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS (Ga.)

Pick value: $5,043,800
Total bonus pool: $11,084,300 (11th)

The Diamondbacks have shown an impressive ability to react to prep prospects slipping lower than expected. In this version, we've got Houck being the latest. Nimmala might also make sense here.

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt

Pick value: $4,848,500
Total bonus pool: $8,962,000 (19th)

A future outfield featuring Bradfield and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Windy City? That sounds pretty sweet. Both players are 21 years old, play stellar defense, and run really fast. Bradfield makes a ton of sense here, with the Cubs shifting their organizational philosophy toward improved defense.

Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford

Pick value: $4,663,100
Total bonus pool: $10,295,100 (15th)

Under Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox have gone pretty off-the-radar a couple of times, especially preferring prep middle infielders. Now we have them sticking in the infield but going with a more advanced hitter in Troy. He flaunts a very advanced plate approach.

Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

Pick value: $4,488,600
Total bonus pool: $9,072,800 (18th)

Teel is the top catcher on the board, and it's not even particularly close. It's been a while since the White Sox selected a backstop in the first round, going back to Zack Collins in 2016. However, this would seem like the floor for the Virginia product.

Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison HS (Va.)

Pick value: $4,326,600
Total bonus pool: $9,916,900 (17th)

Two-way players are a scarce breed, and teams willing to give one a shot in development are even rarer. The Giants are just one year removed from taking Reggie Crawford, who's working on pitching and hitting. Perhaps San Francisco corners the market on these types and selects Eldridge.

Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

Pick value: $4,169,700
Total bonus pool: $10,534,800 (14th)

This is the lowest first pick for the Orioles since 2017 when they selected DL Hall 21st overall. That was before Mike Elias took over the general manager role, so projecting the club's direction is difficult. We've got them taking Shaw, one of the top college shortstops still on the board with a very good bat and plate approach. He likely doesn't stick at short, though.

Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

Pick value: $4,021,400
Total bonus pool: $10,950,600 (12th)

Taylor will almost certainly become the first TCU position player to go in the first round and has a good chance of getting selected before the Brewers are on the clock. With a small-market, risk-averse front office, Milwaukee loves taking polished college bats. Taylor fits that bill very well. If he isn't available, perhaps one of the shortstops in Troy or Shaw make it to them. This could also be a great spot for Jacob Gonzalez.

Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS (Ill.)

Pick value: $3,880,100
Total bonus pool: $10,872,100 (13th)

Showing a recent penchant for prep hitters, the Rays also have an organizational history of targeting guys with game-breaking speed, and that's Head. Unlike other speedsters in the class, Head also has a pretty advanced bat and is by no means a one-trick pony. Think more of Jose Siri as opposed to Jarrod Dyson.

Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton HS (Texas)

Pick value: $3,746,000
Total bonus pool: $6,529,700 (26th)

The Blue Jays' farm system is pretty light on catching prospects after trading Gabriel Moreno to the D-Backs. Adding Mitchell could give them something credible at the position in future years. The Texas high schooler also flaunts a great arm, touching 97 mph as a pitcher, and that's becoming a more premium tool behind the dish with more stolen bases in the majors.

Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic

Pick value: $3,618,200
Total bonus pool: $6,375,100 (27th)

Schanuel hits bombs. The wooden-bat Cape Cod League ate him alive, so it's clear he needs some development once he goes pro. But he has a very advanced eye, posting a .615 OBP and .868 SLG over 59 games this past season while crushing 19 homers. If he pans out, he's a steal.

Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (Fla.)

Pick value: $3,496,600
Total bonus pool: $13,170,900 (7th)

The Mariners have picked high-school position players in the first round of the past two drafts and could hit gold if Miller lands in their lap at No. 22. The Arkansas commit projects to go as high as No. 13. However, some analysts have him dropping out of the first round after a broken hamate bone cost him most of his senior year. His power alone is worthy of being picked by this point in the draft.

Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

Pick value: $3,380,900
Total bonus pool: $8,736,700 (20th)

This would be quite a fall for Gonzalez, perhaps the class' most under-appreciated hitter after posting a .999 OPS in the SEC this past season. Gonzalez isn't especially quick and may need to move off shortstop, but he could certainly hang at second base, and his bat should play. He could easily wind up being the best middle-infield prospect in the class.

Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy HS (Mass.)

Pick value: $3,270,500
Total bonus pool: $8,341,700 (22nd)

White might follow through on his commitment to Vanderbilt if he goes any lower, so signability is a bit of an issue. But the lefty has an impressive arsenal and might be lured by the Braves' recent ability to develop pitchers and accelerate them through the minors like Spencer Strider and AJ Smith-Shawver.

Kevin McGonigle, 2B/SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (Pa.)

Pick value: $3,165,400
Total bonus pool: $5,416,000 (28th)

McGonigle is one of the top prep hitters available thanks to his high contact rate. While the Pennsylvania native and Chase Utley fan looks like a better fit for the Phillies, it's doubtful he'll make it past this point.

George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Fla.)

Pick value: $3,065,000
Total bonus pool: $5,299,400 (29th)

Lombard isn't a first-rounder on a number of notable mock drafts, but we like the son of former big-leaguer George Sr. going to the Yankees. Most of New York's top prospects are pitchers, so it makes a lot of sense for the Bronx Bombers to add a future corner infielder with solid hitting and power.

Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian HS (Fla.)

Pick value: $2,968,800
Total bonus pool: $5,185,500 (30th)

One of the youngest players in the class, Soto will still be 17 on draft day but stands 6-foot-5 and boasts a deep repertoire for a high schooler. The righty will try to follow in the developmental footsteps of Mick Abel and Andrew Painter.

Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock HS (Texas)

Pick value: $2,880,700
Total bonus pool: $6,747,900 (25th)

This is the Astros' first draft under new general manager Dana Brown, who comes over after being the vice president of scouting for the Braves. With that track record, Sykora fits in well as a flame-throwing prep ace.