MLB Monday best bets: Expect offensive explosion in Baltimore

Last week was very up and down on the diamond. There's no better encapsulation of that than sweeping the board Thursday, only to go 0-3 on Friday.

We'll look to get back on track with three plays for Monday's small but fruitful card.

Reds (+115) @ Orioles (-135)

Offense, offense, offense. That's what I expect to see when these two sides collide in Baltimore.

The pitching matchup is primed for the picking for these offenses, with both Brandon Williamson and Cole Irvin entering this game in poor form.

Williamson owns a worryingly low strike rate of 43.4% over the past month. He's allowing a barrel rate of 13%, inducing ground balls 30% of the time, and his xwOBA is approaching .400.

He's paying the price on the scoreboard, conceding an average of 3.6 earned runs over five starts in the last 30 days - including three or more to teams like the Royals, Rockies, and Cubs.

I expect the Orioles - who slot top 10 against lefties in xwOBA this season - to give Williamson a very tough time from the word go.

If any team can keep up with what the Orioles may do against Williamson, it's the Reds.

First and foremost, they rank second to the Dodgers in slugging percentage versus lefties over the last 30 days. They're hitting for a ton of power - and we all know the speed they possess on the basepaths.

They should be able to cause all kinds of trouble for Irvin, who owns a 7.71 ERA through 23 innings of work this season.

I expect the star bats to make plenty of noise for both sides en route to an exciting and high-scoring affair.

Bet: Over 9.5 -125 (playable to -135)

Andrew Heaney under 6.5 strikeouts

Heaney has gone under this total in 11 of 14 starts this season (79%), including six in a row.

That's not a sign of bad luck or a difficult stretch of opponents. He's failed to get the job done against teams like the Rockies, Athletics, and White Sox.

I don't see Heaney flipping the switch and turning into a strikeout machine against the Tigers.

While the Tigers may seem like an easy opponent on the surface, they're actually a very potent offense against left-handed pitching. They sit second in xwOBA - behind only the Dodgers - over the past month and rank top five in terms of contact rate.

Unsurprisingly from a team making consistent contact, Detroit is striking out very little. It's been sat down just 15.6% against lefties over the last month, the lowest rate in the league.

Heaney has very good stuff, so this may be tight. However, he's consistently failed to get the job done in more opportune matchups. I don't believe he'll buck the trend in this one.

Odds: -135 (playable to -145)

Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases

Seager is one of the league's best hitters against left-handed pitching. He owns a whopping .350 batting average, .385 on-base percentage, and .401 xwOBA this year.

His 53.8% hard-hit rate leads a lethal Rangers offense, and he's barreling up on the ball nearly 20% of the time. He's hitting for a ton of power and consistently finding ways to get on base.

Seager has gone over this number in 16 of 25 home dates, good for a 64% hit rate.

I expect he'll be able to build on that further against Matthew Boyd, whose stuff rating is below 70 over the past month. That's quite low.

Against left-handed pitchers with stuff ratings of 80 or below, Seager has managed a .427 xwOBA, barrel rate of 25%, and an OPS well over 1.000.

He should make plenty of noise at the plate and go over this total with just one good swing of the bat.

Odds: +105 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.