MLB Wednesday best bets: Offenses to awaken in St. Louis
We started the week on a good note Monday, winning two of three best bets for a profitable night.
We'll look to pick up where we left off with three more plays for Wednesday's MLB card.
Astros (+100) @ Cardinals (-120)
The series opener was a bit of a snoozer offensively, with the two sides scoring just six combined runs. I'm expecting a much different turnout this time around.
Miles Mikolas owns some pretty concerning numbers beneath the surface. Over the past month, he's thrown strikes just 43% of the time, which is a very poor rate.
When you can't hit the strike zone, you're consistently falling behind in counts and playing into the hitter's hands. That's not ideal - especially when you can't overpower the opponent and get yourself out of trouble when facing batters head-on.
Although the Astros haven't hit the ball that well lately - and are dealing with several key injuries - a date with a pitcher struggling to throw strikes could raise their offensive ceiling.
On the flip side, Cristian Javier looks more hittable than his recent results suggest. He owns an 11% strikeout rate over the past month and has walked nearly as many batters as he's sat down.
His strike rate (42.1%) is putrid, and he's struggled to keep the ball in the dirt, inducing grounders just 26% of the time in the last 30 days.
For all their faults, the Cardinals have a lot of power in their lineup. They sit tied with the Rangers for fifth in homers versus righties in June.
Javier's inability to throw strikes - or keep the ball on the ground - could come back to haunt him against a team with such power.
I think this total is half a run too low.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-130)
Logan Gilbert under 5.5 strikeouts
Gilbert started the season very strong, recording six strikeouts or more in nine of his first 10 games. He's since cooled way down, going under in four of the past five while averaging just four strikeouts per game.
That coincides with a big change in Gilbert's underlying metrics. He had a strike rate of 50.7% and induced swinging strikes nearly 14% of the time over his first 14 starts. This came while holding opposing batters to a low .264 xwOBA.
The numbers we've seen in his last five starts don't hold a candle to those. Gilbert's strike rate is down to 44.4%, which puts him in company with Mikolas, Kyle Freeland, and Joey Wentz among Wednesday's projected starters.
His swinging-strike percentage sits at 11.7%, and his xwOBA of .349 suggests teams are hitting him pretty well.
Gilbert is going to have a tough time righting the ship against the Nationals - at least in regards to strikeouts. No team has been sat down at a lower clip versus righties over the past few weeks. And only the Diamondbacks have posted a higher contact rate.
Look for Gilbert to go under for the fifth time in six starts.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Joey Wentz under 4.5 strikeouts
Wentz isn't a big strikeout pitcher. He's recorded four or fewer in 10 of 15 starts this season, which equates to 66.66% of the time.
Although he did squeak out five against the Rangers last time the two sides met, I don't see history repeating itself here.
The Rangers absolutely nuke left-handed pitching. They own a .294 team batting average and rank among the best in the league in on-base percentage, xwOBA, barrel rate, home runs, and - important to note - strikeout rate.
They hit for average, they hit for power, and they don't strike out very often.
Wentz has given up a ton of runs this season, and his indicators are all alarmingly bad. He's someone offenses can consistently get to, as evidenced by the fact he's conceded at least two earned runs in 11 of his last 12.
Look for the Rangers to chase him from Wednesday's game before he has time to grab a handful of strikeouts.
Odds: -115 (playable to -130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.