AL pennant odds update: Who will emerge from wide-open race?
The race for this year's American League pennant is as wide-open as I can remember.
It's usually a two- or three-horse race with the rest of the pack falling a couple tiers below, but this season is an entirely different animal. There's a handful of good - but not great - clubs in the AL, and no team has clearly separated itself.
Each contender comes with concerning flaws or glaring question marks, whether it's pitching, injuries, or overall performance simply trending downward at the wrong time.
Let's take a look at where things stand as we head down the home stretch of the regular season.
Team | AL pennant odds |
---|---|
Houston Astros | +300 |
Baltimore Orioles | +400 |
Tampa Bay Rays | +400 |
Seattle Mariners | +550 |
Texas Rangers | +550 |
Minnesota Twins | +900 |
Toronto Blue Jays | +1400 |
(Note: Only listed teams 15-1 or shorter)
The defending champions currently hold the second wild-card slot yet are favored to come out of the AL, which tells you how competitive this league is.
The Astros are playing some of their best baseball of the season, having won five in a row and 18 of the past 30. Led by Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are firing on all cylinders at the plate. They sit third in xwOBA - and first among AL sides - during August.
While the addition of Justin Verlander helps, pitching remains a bit of a concern. The Astros are sandwiched between the Tigers and White Sox in xwOBA allowed in August - not ideal company. Those question marks - and the fact they might need to go through the high variance wild-card round - make it risky to get behind Houston.
Next in the pecking order are a couple of AL East teams in the Orioles and Rays. The Orioles are tied for second in MLB in wins and are well-positioned to contend for a long time, but this year might be a little early. Their rotation is not great and their record is inflated by unsustainable success in one-run games. In terms of Pythagorean record, Baltimore is the seventh-best team.
The Rays are tough to evaluate. Despite losing Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen - among others - over the course of the season, their pitching continues to be very good. The offense has sputtered in recent months, though, and will likely remain inconsistent with Wander Franco on administrative leave while under investigation by MLB and Dominican authorities.
Next up are two AL West sides. We'll start with the white-hot Mariners, who are a remarkable 23-7 over their last 30 games. They rank fourth in xwOBA at the dish in August while their starting rotation also slots top five in xwOBA allowed. They are one of two teams - the Braves being the other - that ranked top five in both categories in August.
With Julio Rodríguez playing at an MVP level and a dominant rotation, Seattle is a real threat to make noise in the playoffs.
The Rangers are heading south in a hurry. They have played .500 baseball over the last 30 games and, on the season, are below .500 against teams with a winning record. Even without Jacob deGrom, the talent is there to contend in the AL. But can they put the pieces back together?
Rounding out the group are the Twins and Blue Jays. The Twins have a strong rotation and their offense is heating up. In fact, they ranked seventh in xwOBA - and third in homers - during the month of August. Are they legitimately good or have they benefited greatly from playing in the sport's worst division? That's the big question.
Everyone knows the story with the Blue Jays: The pitching is very good but doesn't get much run support. The Jays' offense lacks raw power and, for whatever reason, has struggled mightily with runners in scoring position. Forget winning the AL; it's a real possibility that Toronto will miss the playoffs.
A few weeks ago, the Jays were -250 favorites to earn a spot at the dance. Now, they carry -110 odds - indicating it's essentially a coin flip whether they can leapfrog a team in front of them.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
HEADLINES
- Pirates' Pham suspended 1 game for inappropriate actions to fans
- Report: Cubs backed out of Luzardo trade due to medical concerns
- Covering the Bases: The best stuff happening in MLB this week
- MRI reveals no structural damage in Snell's shoulder
- Ragans has mild groin strain, status for next start unknown