MLB wild-card best bets: Gausman to mow down Twins
The MLB playoffs begin today with four wild-card games. Let's waste no time in getting to our best bets for what should be an exciting, and dramatic, day of baseball.
Rangers (+130) @ Rays (-150)
It's no exaggeration to say the Rays are the hottest team in the majors. They finished the season on a 19-11 run, which was the best 30-game segment we saw from any of the teams still playing.
I like them to hit the ground running against the Rangers in Game 1 of their series. For one, they have a big pitching advantage with Tyler Glasnow taking on Jordan Montgomery.
Glasnow hit a couple of bumps toward the end of the season, and yet his profile is still extremely good: He posted a 3.53 ERA and struck out 162 batters in just 120 innings of work.
He enters Game 1 in better form than his recent counting numbers would indicate. Glasnow owns a sparkling .240 xwOBA and 36% strikeout rate over the past month - not surprising given the lethal stuff he has to work with. If anybody can slow down a Rangers offense that finished the year on a high, it's the talented - and playoff-tested - Glasnow.
The Rays are in a much better position for success at the dish. They have absolutely teed off against lefties of late, hitting .308 and posting a league-high 11.4% barrel rate in the month of September.
Montgomery is a solid pitcher, but he can't overpower Rays hitters. He will need to be very methodical, which is a lot to ask of a contact pitcher who's also thrown balls at an above-average clip the past month.
I think the Rays will get a couple of runs against Montgomery in the first half of the game, which should be enough to carry a lead through five.
Bet: Rays F5 -0.5 (+100)
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts
Gausman has consistently gone over this strikeout total throughout the season, posting a 61% success rate. That's impressive considering his outputs fell off down the stretch due to a stiff schedule featuring disciplined teams like the Guardians, Rangers, and Orioles.
He finds himself in a high-end matchup in his series-opening start against the Twins: Although they are a potent offensive team, they strike out a ton.
They ranked bottom 10 in strikeout percentage versus righties in September and had a lot of high-strikeout games. If you exclude the Twins' final series against an abysmal Athletics squad (which isn't a good measuring stick for anything), then seven of the last eight right-handed starters they faced managed to go over the strikeout line.
Hunter Greene (14), Zack Littell (8), Glasnow (8), José Ureña, Taj Bradley (7), and Connor Phillips (7) all piled up strikeouts effortlessly against this Twins team.
Yes, there is generally a shorter leash for starters in the playoffs - especially in a three-game series. But Gausman is an experienced ace and strikeout artist going up against a team that's very susceptible to striking out in bulk. He should be able to clear this line.
Odds: -120 (playable to -135)
Corbin Burnes over 1.5 walks
Although Burnes is a very good pitcher, control can be an issue for him. He has walked multiple batters in 22 of 32 starts this season, which equates to a healthy 69% clip.
He hasn't shown any improvement in that regard either: Burnes walked at least two batters in seven of his last 10 starts and owns an above-average ball rate over the past month.
He tends to waste a lot of pitches and produce drawn-out at-bats, which is not a recipe for success against this Diamondbacks team. They are seeing the ball very well and drawing a ton of free passes, having earned at least two against seven consecutive right-handed starters.
It's also worth noting that Burnes walks lefties at a higher rate than righties. The Diamondbacks can play into that with three projected starters hitting from the left side of the plate, as well as two switch-hitters.
Odds: -125 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.