What the odds say: Which team will land megastar Ohtani in free agency?
Baseball's unicorn is heading to free agency.
After a disappointing end to his Angels tenure, Shohei Ohtani will get to pick his next team when he signs a massive new contract this offseason.
Every team in baseball will - or at least should - be putting together their best offer to land the dual-threat star. However, it'll likely come down to only a handful of teams that are willing and able to give Ohtani what could be the largest contract in MLB history.
Odds to sign Ohtani
| Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +300 | 25% |
| Yankees | +500 | 16.7% |
| Giants | +500 | 16.7% |
| Mets | +700 | 12.5% |
| Mariners | +700 | 12.5% |
| Phillies | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Padres | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Angels | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Rangers | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Red Sox | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Braves | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Orioles | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Blue Jays | +3500 | 2.8% |
Odds via theScore Bet. Teams priced at +4000 and above aren't listed.
Surprise, surprise! The Dodgers and their infinitely deep pockets are the favorites to sign Ohtani and keep him in L.A.
Oddsmakers have given the Dodgers a 25% implied probability of signing the 29-year-old, which is nearly double any other team's chances.
It's worth mentioning that the Dodgers' team physician, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, performed surgery on Ohtani's elbow earlier this month - an injury that'll keep Ohtani off the mound until 2025 but allow him to hit next season.
The Yankees and Giants are the next two most likely candidates to land Ohtani. Combined, they're given a 33.4% chance. Neither the Yankees nor the Giants will play postseason baseball this season, but they'd likely be one of the favorites to contend next season if either can sway the Japanese star.
The Mariners - and their rich history of signing top Japanese players - are an interesting landing spot with +700 odds. They're in the thick of a wild-card race this season, and adding Ohtani to a lineup that includes Julio Rodríguez would make them a powerhouse in the AL West for years to come.
Finally, oddsmakers are giving the Angels a 5.9% of bringing their superstar back to play alongside Mike Trout. However, given their lack of success with those two in the lineup for the past six seasons and a messy end to Ohtani's stint with the Angels, a reunion seems unlikely.
So, who do you think Ohtani will play for in 2024?