Stay or go? How MLB players with opt-outs should handle free agency

The offseason is officially underway with the conclusion of the World Series. There are a handful of marquee players who can add additional star power to this offseason's free-agent market if they opt out of their current deals. A decision on their contract must be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. We take a look at each case and weigh the pros and cons of each player's decision. Statistics are from 2023, ages as of Opening Day 2024.

Javier Báez, Tigers

Position: SS
Age: 31
What he'd give up: 4 years, $98M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2023 stats

To call the first two years of Báez's tenure in Detroit rocky would be an understatement. He's posted the worst offensive numbers of his career since joining the Tigers, owning a 77 OPS+ with just 26 homers in 280 games. In one of the first series of the season, he was benched by manager A.J. Hinch after an egregious baserunning gaffe. There were, however, no further incidents the rest of the year, and Báez's glove - still his true calling card - did bounce back in 2023. The majority of his value going forward will remain on the defensive side, and that is important for a young team.

Should he opt out? No. Báez's star has fallen dramatically, and he wouldn't come close to matching the money he'd leave behind if he walked away from the Tigers. This is a marriage that feels doomed, but one that both sides are going to have to make work.

Josh Bell, Marlins

Position: 1B
Age: 31
What he'd give up: 1 year, $16.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2023 stats

Bell struggled in the first half of the season after inking a two-year contract with the Cleveland Guardians. The 2022 Silver Slugger posted a .701 OPS with 11 home runs and 48 RBIs in 97 games before he was dealt to the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. Bell rediscovered his stroke at the plate in Miami, hitting 11 home runs with a .818 OPS in 53 games.

Should he opt out? This is a tricky one that ultimately comes down to whether Bell can expect to get $16.5 million per season on the open market. If he decides to opt out to try and secure another multi-year contract, it's hard to envision a scenario where a team guarantees him the $33 million he received from Cleveland last offseason. Bell should take the $16.5 million and lock into a comfortable situation with the Marlins for 2024.

Matt Carpenter, Padres

Position: 1B/DH
Age: 38
What he'd give up: 1 year, $5.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Carpenter landed a one-year, $6.5-million contract with a player option for 2024 after a shocking resurgence with the New York Yankees in 2022. But the veteran couldn't build off that success, as he struggled at the plate in his first season with the Padres and was limited to 76 games.

Should he opt out? Absolutely not. With his advanced age and declining skills, it's fair to wonder if Carpenter would be able to land with another team if he were to test free agency. It's far from a guarantee that he ultimately starts the 2024 campaign with the Padres, but there's virtually no chance that he turns down $5.5 million considering the circumstances.

Michael Conforto, Giants

Position: OF
Age: 31
What he'd give up: 1 year, $18M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

Conforto turned in a solid, if unspectacular, comeback season with the Giants after missing all of 2022 recovering from shoulder surgery. He got on base at a reasonable .334 clip, hit 15 homers, and made it through the season relatively healthy. Combine that with the lack of a qualifying offer because he declined one from the Mets two years ago, and agent Scott Boras has a solid sales pitch. But he did struggle against left-handers, owning a .598 OPS with only five extra-base hits in just 102 plate appearances against southpaws this year. He also hasn't been able to replicate his career-best 2017 campaign or 30-homer surge of 2019. Will the money he wants be out there?

Should he opt out? Yes. From Conforto's standpoint, the pros should outweigh the cons. This is a good year for him to be a free agent. He doesn't have a qualifying offer, and the outfield market is very thin. While there likely isn't a nine-figure contract in his future, Conforto should easily be able to find a multi-year deal worth more guaranteed money.

Chad Green, Blue Jays

Position: RHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $6.25M (conditional)
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Green returned to action after missing more than one year of action following Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old had a bumpy debut outing for the Blue Jays but showed flashes of his vintage form. It's clear he still has plenty left in the tank to help a bullpen.

Should he opt out? Green has a complex series of options. If the Blue Jays decide to decline a club option covering the 2024-26 campaigns for $27 million, Green then gets a one-year, $6.25-million player option with up to $2 million in bonuses based on games pitched. Should Green decide to forego that option, the Blue Jays get another option for two years and $21 million. If it comes down to it, Green should opt out of the one-year deal and roll the dice that the Blue Jays will pick up the final two-year option. And if they don't, he should be able to land a contract on the open market for more than his player option is worth.

Andrew Heaney, Rangers

Position: LHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $13M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

The Rangers signed Heaney to be a back-end starter behind the star names in their revamped rotation, but he didn't finish the year as a starter. Heaney did pretty much what was asked of him, providing near-average production while surpassing the 140-IP mark for only the second time in his career. But his K/9 rate dropped significantly, while his walk rate spiked above three batters per game. He had a rough September after being moved to the bullpen and was inconsistent in the playoffs, failing to get out of the first inning in the ALCS but also turning in a couple of solid outings in both the division series and World Series.

Should he opt out? No. Given the surplus of mid-rotation and back-end arms available this winter, it might be hard for Heaney to stand out on the open market after his up-and-down 2023 season. There may be a better deal than his player option out there somewhere, but his safest bet from a financial standpoint would be to stay in Texas for one more year, where he'll likely start 2024 in the rotation.

Seth Lugo, Padres

Position: RHP
Age: 34
What he'd give up: 1 year, $7.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Lugo hadn't started a game since 2020 and hadn't been a full-time starter since 2017 until signing with the Padres last winter. He grabbed the opportunity by the horns and proved without a doubt that he's a starting pitcher, tallying career bests in multiple categories. Although his K/9 rate dropped, his walk rate also fell slightly and he stayed relatively healthy.

Should he opt out? Yes. Lugo is reportedly planning to opt out, and it's the right call. Now that he's finally established himself as a starter, the soon-to-be 34-year-old is well-positioned to take advantage of the weak market and find himself a nice salary increase.

Sean Manaea, Giants

Position: LHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $12.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Manaea filled a swingman role for the Giants in 2023, making just 10 starts in 37 appearances. The left-hander posted the highest K/9 (9.79) of his career. Manaea has a proven track record of success as a starting pitcher, and quality left handers always carry good value on the open market.

Should he opt out? Yes. It's always tough to turn down $12.5 million, but Manaea's skillset and track record should be enough to land him a decent commitment from a team in free agency.

Nick Martinez, Padres

Position: RHP
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 2 years, $16M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Martinez opted out of his previous four-year deal with the Padres last winter, only to quickly re-sign days later. This time around, the Padres must first decide whether to exercise their two-year, $32-million club option. If San Diego declines, Martinez then gets a two-year, $16-million player option.

For the second straight year, Martinez opened his season as a starter before moving to the bullpen. His 69 strikeouts as a reliever ranked second on the Padres behind Josh Hader, and he only allowed eight homers in 67.2 innings out of the bullpen. Overall, his numbers remained solid and in some cases even improved from a year ago.

Should he opt out? Yes. Since the value of his contract will drop if the Padres decline their half of the options, this should be an easy decision for Martinez if it comes to that. He can easily get that extra $16 million back as a free agent.

Eduardo Rodríguez, Tigers

Position: LHP
Age: 30
What he'd give up: 3 years, $49M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

Speculation is already mounting that Rodríguez is planning to opt out and test free agency after a very productive 2023 campaign for the Tigers. Rodríguez utilized his no-trade clause to block a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline, and the prospect of him leaving for nothing will not make him very popular in Detroit. The left-hander is a strong target for teams who aren't willing to get in on the likely bidding wars for top-tier free agents such as Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Should he opt out? Absolutely. At age 30, this is likely Rodríguez's last chance to land a lucrative, long-term contract.

Jorge Soler, Marlins

Position: OF/DH
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $9M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Soler put together a terrific campaign, hitting the second-most home runs of his career while posting his highest wRC+ in a season since 2019. He also cut his strikeout rate from 2022 by nearly five percent and increased his walk rate. The 31-year-old doesn't provide much defensive value and is likely best served as a pure designated hitter at this stage of his career, but he can play a corner outfield spot when needed.

Should he opt out? Yes. In a free-agent market somewhat bereft of high-end offensive producers, Soler's proven power and ability to hit in the middle of a lineup should enable him to easily surpass the $9-million player option he carries for the 2024 campaign.

Ross Stripling, Giants

Position: RHP
Age: 34
What he'd give up: 1 year, $12.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Stripling joined the Giants on the heels of one of the best seasons of his career. Unfortunately, his first year in San Francisco was a difficult one. Stripling's numbers last year were the worst of his career in a full season. He missed a large chunk of time with back injuries, and when he was healthy, he bounced in and out of the rotation.

Should he opt out? No, and this might be the easiest call here. Stripling confirmed in September that he isn't planning to opt out.

Marcus Stroman, Cubs

Position: RHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $21M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

Stroman struggled through injuries in 2023, posting his highest ERA in a season since 2018. The veteran still brings a great deal of determination and competitiveness to the mound each time he takes the ball, and he hasn't lost much in terms of stuff as he's entered his 30s.

Stroman continues to rack up ground balls at an excellent clip, as he induced opposing batters to hit it on the ground more than 57% of the time in 2023. His potential departure would leave a gaping hole in the Cubs' rotation.

Should he opt out? Yes. Even if he is no longer the pitcher he once was, there is no disputing that Stroman can still help a team as a mid-rotation option. Proven starting pitchers are usually in high demand on the open market, so it's a good bet that Stroman will be able to at least match the $21 million on his 2024 player option, while also adding a few guaranteed years.

Justin Turner, Red Sox

Position: 1B/DH
Age: 39
What he'd give up: 1 year, $6.7M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

It took some time to get used to seeing Turner playing for a team that isn't the Dodgers. The veteran continues to hold off Father Time, as he put together a strong season at the plate and established himself as one of the leaders in the clubhouse for the Red Sox. Any team looking for a proven hitter who can deliver in a multitude of situations would be wise to take a long look at signing Turner.

Should he opt out? Yes. While the remainder of his deal would pay him $13.4 million in 2024, opting out secures Turner a $6.7-million buyout. So, all he has to do is make up the balance ($6.7M) which should be simple given he's shown no signs of slowing.

Michael Wacha, Padres

Position: RHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 3 years, $18.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

Like his Padres teammate Martinez, Wacha owns a unique opt-out structure. The Padres must first decide whether to exercise a two-year, $32-million club option. If they decline it, he gains a three-year, $18.5-million player option.

Wacha seemed to enjoy his time in San Diego. He only made 24 starts but posted his lowest ERA since 2018 and bumped his K/9 rate up by more than a full batter. He also did a good job limiting the long ball and dropped his contact rates.

Should he opt out: If the Padres decline their option, yes. Wacha isn't a star, but after the season he just had, the thin market should allow him to beat that player option on a new multi-year deal.