2024 HOF preview: Will controversial candidates ever find momentum?

With the Baseball Hall of Fame's class of 2024 announcement approaching, it's time to review this year's ballot. Today, we look at the returnees whose stellar numbers are overshadowed by on- and off-field controversies that have stalled their candidacies - and, for one player, sent it spiraling out of control. Can any of them gain momentum?

Note: All WAR figures from Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.

Carlos Beltrán

Position: OF
Teams: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
JAWS: 57.3 (9th at CF)
WAR: 70.1 (8th)
Year on ballot: 2nd (46.5% in 2023)

In his prime, Beltrán was arguably his generation's best two-way center fielder. He never led a major offensive category and missed a few milestones because of hard-luck injuries, but he stood tall year after year as a cornerstone switch-hitting, five-tool center fielder for two decades.

Beltrán's Hall of Fame credentials can sneak up on you if you're not looking for them. He's one of just eight players with 300 home runs and 300 stolen bases, a testament to his all-around impact. An excellent baserunner, he was caught stealing just 49 times over his career, owns the highest stolen-base percentage ever among players with at least 300 attempts, and sits 29th in doubles and 25th in extra-base hits. Beltrán's 38 defensive runs saved place third among center fielders since 2003. He's a hair below the average HOF center fielder in JAWS and WAR, but everyone above him in both categories, aside from Mike Trout, is already in. Throw his incredible playoff production on top of all that, and it's easy to wonder why this is taking so long.

Beltrán's case was always going to need a couple of years to grow for some voters. However, what's holding him back at this point is his prominent role in the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scheme, as he was the only active player named in commissioner Rob Manfred's report on the scandal. And despite being cited as a key participant early on in the investigation, Beltrán initially denied wrongdoing. The Mets had also recently hired Beltrán as their manager when MLB discovered the scheme, and the two sides agreed to part ways before he even managed a game.

The history of illegal sign-stealing in baseball is long and well documented; suffice to say, the Astros were hardly groundbreakers. Voters seem to have at least recognized that much, with Beltrán in no danger of dropping off the ballot. So the question is, how long will this "punishment" continue?

Beltrán's candidacy is often compared to Roberto Alomar, who was denied first-ballot entry largely due to his infamous spitting incident before sailing in with more than 90% the next year. But there's a key difference between them, as Alomar's on-field case was a slam dunk outside of the spitting. By contrast, Beltrán may not feel like that obvious choice for many. If the sign-stealing scandal never happened, he'd probably still need at least two years, if not three, to collect 75%.

Beltrán's polling at 68.4% on Ryan Thibodaux's tracker. He's gained 21 votes from 2023, easily the highest among returning candidates, albeit with a net gain of just 15. Still, that percentage is well ahead of his final pre-announcement tally last year, so he's on the right track as far as controversial candidates go. But since he'll also likely never convince some to change their minds due to the scandal, this will still take time. A goal for this year would be to cross 50%, and it feels like that's doable.

Andy Pettitte

Position: SP
Teams: Yankees, Astros
S-JAWS: 47.2 (81st at SP)
WAR: 60.2 (65th)
Year on ballot: 6th (17.0% in 2023)

Pettitte has the Yankee charm on his side, and it's probably why he keeps hanging around. He never won a major award, but he was a constant and consistent presence on the mound for most of his career. He also tops the Yankees' record books in many pitching categories. Pettitte's weaker regular-season numbers are somewhat offset by his stellar postseason resume, which includes eight World Series appearances, four rings, the 2001 ALCS MVP, and multiple records, including the most wins (19) in playoff history.

One likely reason he continues to flail away in no man's land is that his name was in the Mitchell Report alongside other PED users. Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormone shortly after the report's release but said he only did it to speed up his recovery from an elbow injury in 2002 and never used any steroids. Pettitte's specific case is an outlier because HGH, while a banned substance, is technically not a steroid. He also never tested positive for any banned substance after MLB began its drug testing program in 2004.

Statistically, Pettitte's far from a lock, which in some ways makes it easier to brush him aside in this vote. Even if that one incident never happened, his Cooperstown credentials are borderline at best and rely heavily on the extra points for his playoff dominance. To date, he's lost six public votes in the tracker, as good a sign as any that he'll continue to languish in no man's land.

Manny Ramírez

Position: OF
Teams: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
JAWS: 54.6 (10th at LF)
WAR: 69.3 (8th)
Year on ballot: 8th (33.2% in 2023)

When Manny wasn't busy being Manny, he was a destroyer of baseballs. One of the most dangerous hitters of his generation, Ramírez was an integral piece of pennant winners in Cleveland and champions in Boston. He also won nine Silver Sluggers and ranks 12th all time in slugging, 15th in homers, 11th in OPS, and 20th in RBIs. It's hardly an exaggeration to call Ramírez one of the greatest right-handed hitters since the Second World War. On paper, he's a no-brainer who should have been in years ago. Unfortunately, his two positive performance-enhancing drug tests - the second of which led to him suddenly retiring in 2011 rather than serving a 100-game suspension - are a massive stain on his resume and continue to keep him on the outside.

MLB's drug testing program discovered Ramírez's positive results, which makes his case different from the likes of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and others who've merely been linked to PED use. Being suspected of doping during the sport's pre-testing era isn't the same as getting caught after the rules were implemented. It's understandable why voters continue to shy away from Ramírez.

The only solace for Ramírez is that he's currently polling at 37.4% on the tracker, up 1% from his final public total last year. But that percentage means nothing because his net gain from returning voters is minus-1. His final number will no doubt drop again once private ballots are included. Manny's going nowhere fast.

Álex Rodríguez

Position: SS/3B
Teams: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
JAWS: 90.9 (2nd at SS)
WAR: 117.5 (2nd)
Year on ballot: 3rd (35.7% in 2023)

One of the most decorated and iconic players of all time, Rodríguez redefined the shortstop position before a pretty impressive second act at third base. The raw numbers speak for themselves: three MVPs, four Hank Aaron Awards, 10 Silver Sluggers, top-five all time in home runs and RBIs, top-10 in extra-base hits, total bases and runs scored, top-15 in both versions of WAR (and second among shortstops), and one of four players with 3,000 hits and 600 homers. If that's not a Hall of Famer, what is?

Alas, nothing is that simple with A-Rod, whose on-field brilliance was usually overshadowed by controversy, scandal, and - most notably from a Hall of Fame perspective - PEDs.

Sports Illustrated's Selena Roberts and David Epstein first connected Rodríguez to steroids in 2009, reporting that he was among the 104 players who tested positive during the league's supposedly anonymous round of testing six years earlier. Rodríguez eventually admitted to using PEDs while with the Rangers from 2001-03 (before MLB began its drug testing program) in an attempt to live up to the pressures of his record contract.

But it would be easy to wave off if juicing during the pre-testing era was his lone drug-related transgression. However, Rodríguez found himself at the center of baseball's Biogenesis scandal in 2013 when the Miami New Times linked several stars - Rodríguez the most notable - to the anti-aging clinic that supplied them with PEDs. MLB eventually suspended 14 players, with Rodríguez getting the harshest discipline: a 211-game suspension that was reduced to the entire 2014 season after a lengthy and messy appeal.

A-Rod is obviously in a category unto himself within the PED crowd, both before and after drug testing began. There's no easy way to get around it, and voters still don't know what to do with him. His early tracker numbers (40.6% of known ballots) look OK given his situation, but like his first two years, that's probably a mirage. Private voters tend to shy away from players with even the most tangible PED connections, and Rodríguez hasn't made too many friends, even among those who release their ballots. There's no sign that a momentum shift is imminent.

Omar Vizquel

Position: SS
Teams: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
JAWS: 36.2 (46th at SS)
WAR: 45.6 (30th)
Year on ballot: 7th (19.5% in 2023)

During his long career, Vizquel was regarded as the AL's version of Ozzie Smith. There's no denying he was a great defensive shortstop - 11 Gold Gloves count for something - but the metrics show Vizquel wasn't quite at that level. He ranks 18th among shortstops in fielding runs, and he posted negative total zone run numbers in two of his Gold Glove-winning seasons. Vizquel's bat also doesn't come close to that of Smith, even when accounting for both of their offensive shortcomings. He retired as the all-time hits leader among Venezuelans and ranks 13th in games played for major leaguers, but he only got to those marks while in part-time roles until age 45.

Nonetheless, his fielding, longevity, and status as a respected leader of Cleveland's iconic 1990s teams helped Vizquel cross the 50% mark in 2020, usually a sign of eventual induction. That climb was stopped in December 2020 following an investigation by The Athletic's Katie Strang and Ken Rosenthal into domestic violence allegations from Vizquel's second wife, Blanca. Vizquel denied all the allegations and was never charged with any crime. He and Blanca have since divorced.

The following August, a former bat boy with autism for the Double-A Birmingham Barons sued Vizquel and the White Sox (Birmingham's parent team), alleging that Vizquel, then the Barons' manager, sexually harassed and exposed himself to the bat boy in the shower in 2019. The White Sox suspended Vizquel with pay while investigating his conduct before firing him in September 2019; both he and the White Sox reached settlements with the bat boy in 2022. MLB also opened an investigation, the results of which are unclear.

Many voters had already cast their 2021 ballots before Strang and Rosenthal's report was published, so Vizquel's historic fall only truly began in 2022. He tumbled last year to 19.5%. With only 16 public votes thus far, Vizquel is now destined to spend the rest of his eligibility at the bottom of the ballot.