Signing Cody Bellinger: Pros, cons, prediction

Cody Bellinger picked the perfect time to have a comeback season. After turning in his best all-around campaign since winning the NL MVP in 2019, the 28-year-old is on the open market and stands as the best free-agent bat still available.

Let's break down Bellinger's free agency by looking at the pros and cons of signing him, evaluating his fits with potential suitors, and predicting where he'll ultimately end up.

Pros

When he's healthy, as he showed this past year with the Chicago Cubs, Bellinger is a unique and multi-tooled weapon who can help a team in many ways.

Bellinger's always brought plenty of pop from the left side, hitting at least 25 homers in all but one of his five seasons in which he's played at least 100 games. His speed makes him a lock for at least 15-20 steals a season. An overlooked part of Bellinger's comeback season was his career-best 15.7% strikeout rate, an impressive feat for a hitter who's always had high strikeout totals.

Defense is also a calling card for Bellinger, who happens to be one of the premier utility players in today's game. He offers plus defense at both center field and first base, bouncing between the two positions with ease this past year. Bellinger also won a Gold Glove in right field and could shift to either corner if necessary. Defense alone won't get you the big bucks, but this kind of versatility is rare and valued by most teams.

The most important aspect of Bellinger's comeback season, however, was that he showed his struggles in 2021 and 2022 were the result of a shoulder injury. Had he not missed a few weeks in June with a knee contusion, his 2023 numbers might have been even better than what they were over 130 games. He doesn't have to match his MVP numbers to the decimal point on his next deal to make himself worthy of the money he wants, and the money he's going to get.

Cons

Bellinger comes with a considerable amount of risk for the team that likely hands him a nine-figure contract. He is just one year removed from posting consecutive miserable offensive campaigns in 2021 and 2022. Bellinger was a below-average offensive player in each of those seasons, sporting a 47 wRC+ in 2021 and 83 wRC+ in 2022.

Although he rebounded in 2023, there are still some concerning red flags in Bellinger's batted-ball profile. Bellinger was able to register an impressive .525 slugging percentage despite only ranking in the 10th percentile among all batters in hard-hit rate. He also struggled against pitches of at least 95 mph last season.

Teams will also likely consider Bellinger's health when evaluating him. He injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason, which hampered him through his turbulent offensive season in 2021. Bellinger also dealt with injuries to his calf, knee, and rib cage over the past two seasons. It's fair to wonder how Bellinger will age with some of the wear and tear he's already accumulated. Is he one shoulder injury away from being borderline unplayable again?

Best fits

Cubs: There's a strong argument to be made that Bellinger should stay where he was able to resurrect his career. The Cubs could certainly use Bellinger's presence in the lineup as new manager Craig Counsell looks to get the team back into the postseason for the first time since 2020. Chicago has a major void in the middle of the lineup and currently projects to have Mike Tauchman as the Opening Day center fielder.

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays tried to add more balance to their lineup last season, but it didn't have the desired effect, as the team regressed in several key offensive categories in 2023. Toronto was interested in Bellinger last offseason, and he acknowledged the Blue Jays were a possible destination.

"I definitely considered it," Bellinger said, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. "I've heard nothing but good things about everything. It was definitely an option."

Bellinger's ability to pull the ball and hit for power would be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays team that fell short in its pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. He would give Toronto another premium glove in the outfield while also adding some much-needed pop from the left side.

Mariners: Bellinger's bat would give Seattle's lineup the boost it needs. He'd have to shift back to right field to make this work since Julio Rodríguez is entrenched in center, but that's a small problem to overcome. Bellinger fits the needs of this team better than most other hitters available. The Mariners spent the early months of the offseason clearing out salary and are in dire need of help.

Giants: Signing Jung Hoo Lee was a good start, but the Giants could make a second splash by luring Bellinger to the Bay Area. His presence in right field would allow San Francisco to deal one of Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, or Mitch Haniger for help elsewhere. Bellinger could also slot in at first base on occasion, where he'd be a defensive upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr. He'd make the Giants a more complete club overall.

Prediction

Bellinger heads north of the border for an eight-year, $210-million contract with the Blue Jays that includes player options after the 2025 and 2027 seasons.