Signing Blake Snell: Pros, cons, prediction

Blake Snell entered free agency at an opportune time after winning the second Cy Young of his career following a remarkable campaign with the San Diego Padres.

Snell's market had been quiet while he awaited Yoshinobu Yamamoto's decision, but things should pick up at a furious pace for the southpaw now that the Japanese hurler has reportedly agreed to a 12-year, $325-million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Let's break down Snell's pros and cons, take a look at his best fits, and predict where the strikeout artist will play the next few years of his career.

Pros

Snell is one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers of his era and has been able to maintain strong swing-and-miss stuff as he enters his age-31 season. The southpaw owns a 31.7 K% since 2018, which is nearly identical to his 31.5 K% from last year, while his 37.3 Whiff% from 2023 was the second-highest mark of his career.

The one-time All-Star - yes, he has more Cy Young Awards than All-Star appearances - is also one of the game's best at keeping runs off the board, evidenced by his two ERA titles. He also rarely allows homers (career 1.05 HR/9) and doesn't allow much contact, as his 5.7 H/9 led the majors last season.

The former Rays ace has shown he can adjust to pitching in both leagues and hang tough with the AL East's elite offenses, as well as the high-powered Los Angeles Dodgers, who he's held to a .171 batting average throughout his career.

Lastly, Snell does a terrific job of stranding runners, posting a ridiculous 86.7 LOB% last season, which was tops in the majors among starters and more than 6% ahead of AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. That was integral to limiting damage as Snell issued an MLB-worst 99 walks (which we'll touch on below).

Cons

No one allowed more walks than Snell in 2023, as he led the majors with 99 walks and a 5.0 BB/9. The free passes didn't seem to bother Snell, who said he didn't "look at them as a bad thing," but they were certainly a point of contention when he was being considered for last season's NL Cy Young.

Stranding runners allowed Snell to keep his ERA down, but continuing to walk hitters at a high rate could come back to bite him more often if he winds up pitching in a more hitter-friendly park. Snell pitched his home games in one of the least-friendly parks for opposing batters the past three seasons.

One of the biggest knocks that's followed Snell throughout his career is a lack of durability. He's thrown 180 or more innings just twice, and his 992 2/3 innings pitched since 2016 ranks 30th among big-league starters behind names like Zach Davies and Sean Manaea.

Snell's starts and innings pitched by year

Snell made 32 starts last season, but questionable past health could be a factor in who signs him. He's been on the injured list seven times in his eight big-league seasons, with issues like left shoulder fatigue and loose bodies in his throwing elbow.

Lastly, Snell rejected a qualifying offer in November, meaning whoever signs him will forfeit a draft pick. Other hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito wouldn't be as costly from that perspective, meaning teams could turn to them instead.

Best fits

Giants: A recent report from USA Today's Bob Nightengale had the Giants as front-runners to land Snell, which makes a ton of sense. The Giants have a lot of payroll flexibility, even after signing outfielder Jung Hoo Lee for $113 million, and the organization has been on the hunt for a big-ticket name for years, missing out on Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and Shohei Ohtani in recent offseasons. The Giants could pair Snell with Logan Webb to form co-aces, giving them their best shot at reclaiming the division title for the first time since 2021. Snell would also reunite with manager Bob Melvin, who switched to the Giants after spending the last two seasons with the southpaw in San Diego.

Yankees: The Yankees were heavily invested in Yamamoto before he signed elsewhere and are reportedly expected to remain aggressive in free agency. That could mean Snell - the next-best starter available in free agency - ends up in Yankee pinstripes next season alongside Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Co.

Braves: The Braves have been one of the busiest teams of the offseason, with president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos swinging multiple deals to better a club that finished with 104 wins last season. One area they haven't improved, however, is the starting rotation. They were connected to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray before missing out on both, so a run at Snell would make a ton of sense. A rotation anchored by Snell and Spencer Strider would be one of the most fearsome pairings in the bigs.

Cubs: The Cubs have been suspiciously quiet, making some minor moves despite being connected to names like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Jeimer Candelario, and Rhys Hoskins. While it appears that they're interested in re-signing Cody Bellinger, they also need a starter after Marcus Stroman opted out of his deal. Snell would be a major improvement over Stroman and presumably do well with a terrific Cubs defense behind him.

Red Sox: The Red Sox were also connected to Yamamoto as they sought to improve a rotation that was near the bottom of the league in ERA, FIP, fWAR, and innings pitched last season. Landing Snell would be quite the prize for new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow in his first year on the job.

Angels: The Angels were given the last shot to outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani and decided to walk away, which likely means they have money to spend. A report stated they've had a recent dialogue with Snell, who'd be a solid replacement for the departed Ohtani at the top of the Angels' rotation.

Mariners: The Mariners feel like a long shot for a few reasons. They already have one of the best rotations in the majors and appear to be cutting salary instead of adding it. But signing a Seattle native like Snell would be a huge get, which could translate to more ticket sales. Snell reportedly would love to sign with his hometown team and made appearances around the community in November - sparking rumors in the process - so the fit is there even though the Mariners would benefit more from spending money to improve an underwhelming offense.

Prediction

Snell makes the Bay Area his new home, signing a six-year, $180-million contract with the Giants that includes an opt-out clause after the second year of the deal.