2024 MLB futures: Best bets to win AL Cy Young
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The 2024 MLB campaign gets fully underway later this week. With that in mind, we'll take a closer look at futures markets and highlight spots where I see the most value.
Let's start with the AL Cy Young Award.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | +800 |
| Kevin Gausman | +850 |
| Luis Castillo | +850 |
| Pablo López | +850 |
| Cole Ragans | +1000 |
| Framber Valdez | +1000 |
| Tarik Skubal | +1000 |
| George Kirby | +1400 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | +2000 |
| Logan Gilbert | +2000 |
| Joe Ryan | +3000 |
| Kyle Bradish | +3000 |
| Shane Bieber | +3000 |
| Zach Eflin | +3000 |
| Carlos Rodón | +4000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +4000 |
| José Berríos | +5000 |
Corbin Burnes (+800)
Burnes is getting a lot of love heading into the year and rightfully so. He's one of the league's best strikeout pitchers and should benefit greatly from the trade to Orioles. With run support from one of the most talented offensive teams in MLB, his margin for error will be much higher than it was with the Brewers.
Baltimore's park factors could also help him keep the ball in the yard, which was a bit of an issue last season. Only 24 pitchers conceded more homers than Burnes did. Milwaukee has the fourth-most hitter-friendly stadium in terms of home runs, according to Ballpark Pal, while the Orioles are 20th.
Burnes has to contend with some high-powered offenses in the AL East, but playing a healthy chunk of his games at Camden Yards should help bring his home-run numbers down. Consider he could also flirt with 200 strikeouts while piling up wins on an elite team and there is a ton to like with Burnes.
Framber Valdez (+1000)
Valdez checks all the boxes for a potential Cy Young winner: He eats innings, he consistently induces grounders, he doesn't allow a lot of hard contact, and he grinds out wins.
I think he can and will be better than a year ago, when he still put together a strong season. He should be able to cut down on his homers allowed. Even pitching in the Astros' hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, he did a great job on that front in 2021 and '22, and there's no reason he can't return to form.
His potential wins should be as safe as any those of any starter when he leaves the game. The likes of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and offseason acquisition Josh Hader will be chomping at the bit to come in and shut down opposing hitters.
Valdez could threaten for the league lead in innings pitched and should be at or near the top of the list in terms of wins. If he can cut down on the long ball the way we've seen in the past, the sky is the limit.
Zach Eflin (+3000)
Eflin made the leap from from good to great in his first season with the Rays. Among all pitchers to start at least 15 games last season, Eflin ranked 12th in strike percentage, second in walk rate, and fourth in xwOBA.
He painted the strike zone early and often and was able to consistently work from ahead in the count. He did so masterfully, locating his pitches very well and inducing a lot of grounders on balls that were put in play.
With Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs sidelined after Tommy John surgeries and Tyler Glasnow shipped off to the Dodgers, Eflin finds himself at the top of the rotation. I think he'll put together another excellent campaign for a Rays team that always manages to be competitive.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.