2024 MLB futures: Best bets to win NL Cy Young
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We recently took a closer look at the AL Cy Young market, highlighting a few arms that stood out. Let's do the same for the National League.
Note: only listed players with odds 40:1 or shorter.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | +450 |
| Zack Wheeler | +850 |
| Logan Webb | +1000 |
| Max Fried | +1200 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +1200 |
| Zac Gallen | +1200 |
| Tyler Glasnow | +1600 |
| Kodai Senga | +1800 |
| Aaron Nola | +2000 |
| Freddy Peralta | +2000 |
| Justin Steele | +2000 |
| Bobby Miller | +2500 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +3000 |
| Jesús Luzardo | +3000 |
| Sonny Gray | +3000 |
| Chris Sale | +3500 |
| Eury Pérez | +3500 |
| Hunter Greene | +4000 |
| Joe Musgrove | +4000 |
| Merrill Kelly | +4000 |
| Mitch Keller | +4000 |
| Shota Imanaga | +4000 |
| Yu Darvish | +4000 |
Spencer Strider (+450)
Strider is quickly emerging as the best pitcher in baseball. He is an absolute flamethrower who tosses nothing but strikes and has the ability to blow pitches past hitters even when behind in the count.
Last season, Strider threw strikes at a higher rate than anyone in the league and led the field when it came to inducing swinging strikes, doing so more than 20% of the time. Nobody else even reached 17.5%.
He also showed incredible control with his pitches, leading the league in strikeout per walk ratio.
His ground ball rate isn't as high as I'd like it to be, but Strider can combat that with his almost unmatched ability to prevent hitters from putting the ball in play in the first place. Only Blake Snell did a better job in that regard last season.
If healthy, Strider is likely to lead the majors in strikeouts while piling up the wins as he's backed by what should be the MLB's highest scoring offense.
Logan Webb (+1000)
Webb isn't as flashy as some of the other top aces, but he's effective and in the perfect situation for his play style.
No starter in the majors induced grounders as frequently as Webb last season. He posted a 62.7% ground ball rate, while no other starter even touched 60%.
There's reason to believe he could reach even greater heights this season.
With some of the offseason additions made by the Giants, like adding one of the best defensive players in the league in Matt Chapman, Webb can expect even more of the grounders he creates to result in outs.
He should also get more run support with Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee, which could translate to more wins.
If Webb can drop his ERA while an improved supporting cast converts more quality starts into wins, he should be in the mix for some hardware.
Freddy Peralta (+2000)
Peralta fared better than Corbin Burnes last season in terms of strike percentage, strikeout percentage, xwOBA, and line drive rate, and he induced swings and misses at a higher clip. But Burnes understandably has the shortest odds to win the AL Cy Young.
Peralta finds himself at the top of the rotation for this year's Brewers. That should lead to some extra innings and batters faced, and a real shot at being near the top of the leaderboard in strikeouts.
With a career 61% win rate, and an average of nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, Peralta profiles as someone who can be one of the best pitchers in baseball any given year.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.