Never too early: Breaking down the AL wild-card race

It's easy to say June 1 is way too early to look at the MLB standings, but wins in April and May count the same as August and September.

Teams that play themselves into an early hole have a difficult time digging out. Since MLB expanded the postseason field in 2022, nine of the 12 AL clubs to qualify for the postseason held playoff spots heading into June.

The Blue Jays were the only team outside the AL playoff picture on May 31, 2023, to qualify for last postseason, and they only grabbed the final spot. Toronto was 3.5 games out of a playoff position heading into June and jumped over the Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, and New York Yankees to qualify. Toronto went 60-46 over the final four months, while the Yankees, decimated by injuries, went 48-56 to finish seven games back.

The Cleveland Guardians sat 3.5 games back of a playoff spot May 31, 2022, while the Seattle Mariners' early poor play had them 5.5 games out. Cleveland would erase a six-game deficit to the Minnesota Twins to capture the AL Central, while Seattle's 69-44 (.627) run landed the club the second wild-card spot.

Seven teams are within 7.5 games for the final AL wild-card spot heading into June. The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals have created a bit of separation already, so we'll exclude them from this exercise. Four of the clubs outside the playoff picture were in the postseason last year, including the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers. Here's a look at the teams' current playoff odds and why each might, or might not, reach the postseason. Division and playoff odds provided by FanGraphs.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 32-25
Division odds: 30.8%
Playoff odds: 71.2%

Reason for optimism: Despite numerous injuries, the Twins rank 12th in MLB in OPS and have already rattled off a 12-game winning streak. That doesn't happen by fluke. Joe Ryan looks to be a legit ace and the lineup features plenty of versatility that will cause problems for opposing teams when at full strength. The bullpen also features an elite tandem of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Reason for pessimism: Will the team ever get to full strength? Health continues to be a concern as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis have all hit the injured list this season. The Kansas City Royals and Guardians look much more legit than in previous years, making it unlikely the AL Central crown will be claimed with 87 wins again. Pablo López has really struggled with consistency. That 12-winning streak mentioned above was followed by a seven-game losing streak 10 days later, so there's the potential for more volatility.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 29-29
Division odds: 0.4%
Playoff odds: 13.4%

Reason for optimism: The Red Sox have stayed in the fight despite unrelenting injuries to key players. Rafael Devers continues to provide excellent production, while the young offense is athletic enough to score runs in different ways. The pitching staff has been transformed under Andrew Bailey, and even with some expected regression, it should still be good enough to keep the team competitive, especially with an improved defense.

Reason for pessimism: Boston cannot afford to lose any other key players to injury. The club has the second-hardest schedule remaining this season and is 9-19 against teams .500 or better. They've really struggled at Fenway Park (12-16), too. With the Red Sox going through another transition year, it doesn't feel like chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will part with any prospects at the trade deadline, so the club will likely opt to sell off players on expiring deals.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 28-29
Division odds: 3.4%
Playoff odds: 18.5%

Reason for optimism: The starting pitching has been excellent. Reese Olson is enjoying a breakout season, Jack Flaherty's been an incredible signing, and Tarik Skubal might be the early AL Cy Young favorite. There are some solid offensive pieces if the club can get them all going at the same time. Detroit's already 3-0 against the White Sox and will get to play them 10 more times, which could serve as a major advantage over the AL East and West teams also chasing a wild-card spot.

Reason for pessimism: For once, playing in the AL Central isn't really an advantage outside of Chicago, making the division likely out of reach. Detroit is looking up at three teams and already sits 10 back of the Guardians and six behind the Royals. Spencer Torkelson has hit just four homers and Javier Báez continues to be an offensive liability. It feels like the club is still a few key players away from really going on an extended run.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 28-30
Division odds: 0.7%
Playoff odds: 22.7%

Reason for optimism: The Rays always seem to find a way - even when it seems like they're finally taking a step back. Tampa Bay ranks 25th in OPS and 23rd in ERA but still has managed to go 9-14 against teams without losing records. Kevin Cash always seems to get the best out of his club, and struggling hitters Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena should eventually turn it around.

Reason for pessimism: Tampa Bay has the hardest remaining schedule, and that's a tough task for even the deepest clubs. With four key starting pitchers on the IL, maybe this is a bridge year to 2025 when the arms get healthy again. Even if Díaz and Arozarena get going, there seems to be a lot of holes in this lineup. These Rays aren't the fundamentally sound team of previous years, leading to plenty of self-inflicted issues that have been hard to overcome.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 27-29
Division odds: 0.8%
Playoff odds: 22.3%

Reason for optimism: There's enough individual talent on this roster to feel like the Blue Jays could make a run if they ever snap out of this malaise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have picked it up after slow starts, and the rotation remains very strong. This front office has been aggressive at the deadline in this competitive window, and ownership has put in considerable financial resources into the roster and stadium, so the team should be motivated to add if close to a playoff spot near the deadline.

Reason for pessimism: It won't be easy to dig out of this hole. The division is essentially out of reach, and the Blue Jays have already dropped their season series with the Royals, meaning they lose that important tiebreaker. They might be fighting with these seven teams for one spot. The offense remains extremely frustrating to watch, and they really need struggling veterans Justin Turner and George Springer to turn it around quick. Toronto has so many players set to hit free agency in the next two seasons and an underwhelming farm system, so maybe the front office views this as the time to retool for 2025.

Texas Rangers

Record: 27-30
Division odds: 12.8%
Playoff odds: 19.6%

Reason for optimism: Texas slogged through the first half of last season before turning it on in the final months en route to its first World Series title. Corey Seager is starting to heat up, and we've seen how terrifying an offensive club the Rangers can be when things are clicking. Despite numerous injuries, the team is only four games back in the division. Texas owns a top-10 farm system, so it should have the pieces for deadline additions.

Reason for pessimism: Injuries have plagued the club - especially the pitching staff - but Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are expected to return at some point. However, given their injury history, how much can the club really expect from either this season? The bullpen is a major problem, posting the second-worst ERA in MLB. The team was able to address it ahead of last postseason, but there's a lot of heavy lifting to be done this year.

Houston Astros

Record: 25-33
Division odds: 24.1%
Playoff odds: 35.4%

Reason for optimism: How could you doubt this core? The Astros have made seven straight ALCS appearances and have reached the World Series in two of the last three years. Kyle Tucker is having an MVP-type season, Jose Altuve remains one of the game's best second basemen, and Yordan Alvarez is still sitting in the middle of the order. Despite the rough start, Houston's only 6.5 games back in the division and has the third-easiest schedule remaining.

Reason for pessimism: The gap is sizeable and six teams are ahead of them. The pitching staff continues to deal with injuries, and the bulk of the depth arms filling in are getting thrashed. The rotation ranks 26th in MLB in ERA. Cristian Javier was placed on the IL twice in May, and it may not be wise to rely on Justin Verlander to carry the club at age 41. With a depleted farm system, Astros GM Dana Brown might see this season as an opportunity to sell despite previous proclamations that the team would not go in that direction. Still, Houston would need to really fall out, as the years of control with this core are shrinking.