MLB Rookie of the Year odds: Skenes pulling away, AL remains wide-open
Two intriguing Rookie of the Year races are developing in MLB, with Paul Skenes trying to pull away in the National League and a potential five-horse race taking shape between Luis Gil, Wyatt Langford, and three others in the American League.
Skenes burst onto the scene when he was called up for the Pirates in May, racking up seven strikeouts in his first start and then pitching a six-inning, 11-strikeout gem in his second outing. The 22-year-old holds a 2.02 ERA in nine starts with 70 strikeouts in 52.1 innings pitched.
Those incredible numbers from the 2023 first overall pick have landed him atop the oddsboard for National League Rookie of the Year.
All odds via theScore Bet.
| Player (Team) | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | -275 | 73.3% |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +375 | 21.1% |
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Gavin Stone (LAD) | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | +2200 | 4.3% |
The Padres' Jackson Merrill is Skenes' closest competition. Merrill is hitting .293 with 12 homers and 43 RBIs in his rookie campaign. The 21-year-old centerfielder was the second youngest player on an Opening Day roster behind the Brewers' Jackson Chourio.
Both Skenes and Merrill were +3000 to win NL ROY before the season.
The American League has an ongoing duel between Gil and Langford, with Colton Cowser, Mason Miller, and Wilyer Abreu all within reach.
| Player (Team) | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Gil (NYY) | +200 | 33.3% |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | +225 | 30.8% |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | +550 | 15.4% |
| Mason Miller (OAK) | +650 | 13.3% |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +650 | 13.3% |
Gil wasn't even listed on the oddsboard at the beginning of the season, and when he was, his opening odds were +2200 in the middle of May. Thanks to a 9-4 record and an ERA of 3.41, Gil's rocketed up the board to claim the favorite position. The 26-year-old leads the stout Yankees' rotation with 102 strikeouts.
Langford entered the year as the third favorite at +800 to win AL ROY behind teammate Evan Carter and Baltimore's Jackson Holliday. He dropped all the way to +3000 at one point but has climbed back thanks to a .309 average in June.
Cowser and Abreu were long shots before the season began. Cowser was +3000 at the beginning of the season and at one point jumped into the favorite spot at +105. Abreu wasn't listed before the season, and his longest odds of the campaign were +1400.
There was also some early-season confusion surrounding Miller's rookie eligibility since he pitched 33.1 innings in 2023. However, once it was determined he was still eligible to win this year's award, he entered the market at his current price of +650 and was also the favorite for a brief period.
With plenty of drastic swings atop the AL ROY betting board through the first three months of the season, it's safe to expect there will be more movement unless someone begins to separate from the pack.