In Flight: Blue Jays at crossroads ahead of trade deadline

This is the 2024 campaign's eighth edition of "In Flight," where we take a biweekly look at the state of the Toronto Blue Jays.

With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, the Blue Jays appear to be in a position to sell for the first time since 2019. It's a bitter pill to swallow for a team that's been a buyer over the past few seasons, but there's an opportunity to restock a farm system that ranks in the bottom third of the league on most lists.

There are a couple of routes Toronto could look at. Here, we investigate the options ahead of a crucial period for the team's short and long-term future.

Retool, trade rentals

This feels like the most likely scenario. It's hard to imagine ownership green-lighting a complete teardown after sinking $400 million into renovating Rogers Centre. They can't afford the precipitous decline in attendance that would come with several years of non-contending. In 2019, the last year the Blue Jays weren't in postseason contention, they were 22nd in attendance at an average of 21,606 fans per game. They were eighth in both 2022 and 2023, and are 10th so far this season.

The Blue Jays have a handful of impending free agents that would be of varying degrees of interest to contending clubs.

Yusei Kikuchi: The left-hander righted the ship over the past two seasons after a rough first year in Toronto. His ability to miss bats - as evidenced by a recent 13-strikeout performance against the San Francisco Giants - is the type of skill teams look for on the trade market. Kikuchi might not crack a deeper postseason rotation, but he could help a team lock down a division title or a playoff spot over the season's final few months.

Justin Turner: Turner was excellent in April, dreadful in May, and solid again in June. The veteran doesn't have the pop he used to but is still a patient hitter with a history of delivering in clutch moments and with runners in scoring position. Turner has a .830 OPS in 86 postseason games and would make for an excellent bat off the bench for a team with ambitions of a deep run in October.

Yimi García: García's missed a chunk of time with an elbow injury but was enjoying one of the best seasons of his career until he got hurt. The 33-year-old has struck out 11.89 batters per nine innings with a 2.57 ERA and a 2.89 FIP, and has permitted a paltry .116 batting average against his fastball. García's also been excellent in high-leverage situations, holding hitters to a .121 average and a .419 OPS. He would be a huge boost to any team looking to shore up its bullpen.

Kevin Kiermaier: The decision to bring back Kiermaier for $10.5 million was a bit puzzling at the time - and that sentiment has only been validated amid the veteran outfielder's rough season at the plate. The Blue Jays recently placed Kiermaier on waivers, hoping a contender would take on his salary. He's best suited to be a fourth outfielder or a defensive replacement, as the 34-year-old still ranks in the 95th percentile in Statcast's outs above average and the 97th percentile in arm strength.

Danny Jansen: After trading Gabriel Moreno, the Jays would be in a precarious situation behind the plate if they move Jansen. Although he's slumped after a hot start offensively, Jansen still profiles as an above-average catcher. That said, he's the most likely candidate of this group of rentals to remain in Toronto beyond the trade deadline and potentially negotiate a new contract that keeps him with the Blue Jays.

Complete rebuild

The club hasn't generated much value from the draft over the last five or six years, instead relying on the trade and free-agent markets to bolster the roster. That issue's been particularly obvious on the pitching side, as the current rotation is comprised entirely of external additions. With the AL East as imposing as ever, it looks like the Blue Jays' competitive window is nearly closed - if it hasn't already slammed shut entirely.

The problem with tearing it down is that a lot of the big pieces with control beyond 2024 are struggling this season. Bo Bichette's having the worst campaign of his career by a wide margin and Kevin Gausman's ERA has risen by more than a run from his first two years in Toronto. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s found his stride after a slow start and Chris Bassitt continues to be the model of consistency on the mound. Trading any of these players would net the Blue Jays a decent return but would leave the franchise looking at at least a few years of being nowhere near playoff contention.

Possible trade targets

The Blue Jays should look for controllable talent with major-league experience as they try to bolster the roster moving forward.

Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians starting pitchers

Both Allen and McKenzie were optioned to Triple-A after struggling on the mound this season. McKenzie pitched through an elbow issue, registering a 5.11 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 16 starts. The 26-year-old hasn't been the same pitcher since a breakout 2022 campaign in which he posted an 11-11 record with a 2.96 ERA and 190 strikeouts across 191 1/3 innings. McKenzie is arbitration-eligible for another two years and would be an interesting target for Toronto.

Allen struggled in 2024 after a strong rookie season during which he amassed 1.7 fWAR with 8.55 K/9 and a 3.81 ERA over 125 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old allowed too much hard contact this season but has shown he's capable of stringing together good results in the major leagues.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder

Walker was one of the top prospects in baseball entering the 2023 campaign and enjoyed a strong rookie season, hitting 16 home runs with a 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He made strides elevating the ball down the stretch, leading many to predict a huge breakout in 2024. But things didn't go that way for Walker: He hit just .155 with zero homers and a 50% groundball rate in 20 games before he was demoted to Triple-A. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, either, with just four homers and a 76 wRC+ in 59 games. Though the Cardinals will likely ask for a decent haul to trade Walker, who's still only 22 years old, he'd be a compelling option for the Jays.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds first baseman

Encarnacion-Strand burst onto the scene in 2023, hitting 13 home runs with a 112 wRC+ in 241 plate appearances. The 24-year-old couldn't find his footing this season, posting a 41 OPS+ with just two homers in 116 at-bats before a wrist injury sidelined him, likely for the remainder of the campaign. The Reds moved Encarnacion-Strand to first base before he went down, but he's also capable of playing third base and in a corner outfield spot.