Second-half Blue Jays: Have we learned anything for 2025?
If you had told Ross Atkins in spring training that Bowden Francis would throw eight innings of no-hit baseball in September for the second time in four starts, he'd have been somewhere between skeptical and elated. Probably a little of both.
And then, if you told the general manager that Francis was only in the rotation because the Blue Jays were deadline sellers and that they lost his latest no-hit bid anyway to fall to 69-78, he might've walked right into Lake Ontario.
The Bowden Francis story is the strangest part of a perplexing 2024 season for Toronto. Dumped from the rotation after a pair of lousy April starts, he went down to Buffalo before returning to the Jays for bullpen duty in the summer, where he was decent. Fine. Passable.
Put back in the rotation after the club traded Yusei Kikuchi, he then turned into Bowden Maddux. Or Pedro Francis. The numbers are bonkers: those two no-hit bids coming amid a stretch of eight starts in which he has posted a dazzling 1.54 ERA. Francis also has the lowest WHIP over a six-start stretch (0.40) in MLB history, and he's the first pitcher in 25 years to lose two no-hitters in the ninth inning in the same season. The last guy to do it: Nolan Ryan in 1989.
As best anyone can tell, Francis has been transformed by improved command and a better pitch mix, including significantly more splitters. That's not usually the kind of thing that turns you from Steve Rogers into Captain America.
This brings us back to the part about this being such a confusing Jays season. Can Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro trust that they've stumbled upon an elite major-league starter? Can they even be sure that Francis will be above average? As good as he's been for six weeks, there's an element of a golfer on a driving range who's in a groove and striping it. It's possible Francis goes to the first tee - in this analogy, that would be the start of 2025 - and hooks one into the parking lot.
But Francis is just one of many question marks. Dreadful offensive performance over the season's early months undid Toronto's playoff aspirations, including long barren stretches from proven hitters like George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Alejandro Kirk.
Springer had a great July and is having a nice September, but his age and contract aren't going to improve. Can the front office really expect Kirk to be a regular at this level any longer? An All-Star in 2022, he's now gone two campaigns with below-average offensive production.
Bichette's drop-off this season was even more precipitous, going from Toronto's best hitter last campaign to one who managed four home runs in a half-season before injury derailed the year. Where once there were rumors that the 26-year-old was looking to play out his contract next campaign and then leave as a free agent, Bichette last week told Sportsnet that he wants to stay with the Jays and win a championship alongside pal Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Has time away from the game helped Bichette realize what he enjoyed about the Blue Jays organization? Possibly. Did he muse about a long-term future here in hopes Toronto would sweeten a possible extension? It's also possible. Whatever his motivations, it leaves the front office with an uncomfortable decision: offer a lucrative deal and hope this season was a blip, or trade Bichette when his value has never been lower.
At least the decision is clearer with Guerrero. After a poor April, he's been an elite hitter the rest of the season and is among the American League leaders in a pile of offensive categories. Maybe all it took was the return of the home run jacket.
And while management might be leery of expecting more of this year's great production when Guerrero might revert to the merely good form of the past couple of seasons, they'd be foolish not to pay the man. You sign a kid with great promise as a teenager, and he develops into a spectacular hitter and is the face of the franchise. If you aren't willing to give that guy a monster contract before he hits free agency, why even be in the baseball business?
As for the rest, more questions: The bullpen was historically bad, and its key guy, Jordan Romano, missed almost the entire season. Even assuming a rebound from the would-be closer, which is a big assumption, the Jays need something like five new relief arms. That's a lot of arms.
The kids, meanwhile, have shown promise, but that was only possible after the deadline sell-off freed up all kinds of playing time for prospects. How many of those guys can Toronto pencil in for regular lineup spots? Spencer Horwitz appears to have earned one with a strong half-season, but Davis Schneider might've played his way out of one. Will Wagner? Addison Barger? Joey Loperfido? Leo Jimenez? Orelvis Martinez? Having a bunch of young players trying to prove themselves at the major-league level makes sense for a certain kind of team - and indeed did for the Blue Jays of 2019 - but every signal this organization has given is that it intends to be a playoff contender in 2025.
For that kind of team, management is still left with a great many unknowns. At least they can be sure they've locked down a starting rotation spot in Francis. Probably.
Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore