Blue Jays must navigate murky waters to return to playoff contention
The Toronto Blue Jays head into the offseason with things looking as dire as they've been at any point over the last five or six years. The team took a major step back in 2024, finishing 74-88, after consecutive postseason berths.
The disappointing campaign had fans calling for major changes, pointing at general manager Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider for an inability to get the team to where it needed to be. That level of change is not happening, however, as both Atkins and Schneider are returning in 2025. The Blue Jays have made it abundantly clear they have no intentions of rebuilding and hope to quickly rebound and return to the postseason. There's plenty of work to do before that can become a reality.
Here, we look at what lies ahead for the Blue Jays and how the club can get back in the mix in what's expected to be an extremely competitive AL East next season.
The Vladimir Guerrero situation
Guerrero is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason and is projected to earn $29.6 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors. The 25-year-old rebounded in a big way in 2024, hitting 30 home runs with a 165 wRC+ and .323 batting average in 159 games. Guerrero's repeatedly said he hopes to stay in Toronto, but there hasn't appeared to be much momentum toward a long-term contract.
With Bo Bichette also only under team control for one more season, the Blue Jays face the potential doomsday scenario of losing both players in free agency for nothing more than compensatory draft picks. Guerrero's undecided future could even affect the decisions of other free agents considering Toronto as a potential destination. The club's future will depend on how it proceeds with its homegrown stars.
What to do about Bichette?
Bichette had a nightmare season, playing just 81 games due to a calf strain and fractured finger. The two-time All-Star struggled through the worst offensive campaign of his career, hitting .225 with a 71 wRC+ and four home runs across 336 plate appearances. Committing to Bichette long term is a lot more difficult than it was at this time last year, and Bichette seems more likely than Guerrero to be playing elsewhere in 2025. It only makes sense for him to play out the remaining year of his deal in the hope of bouncing back heading into free agency. That also makes trading him at his lowest value this offseason an unlikely scenario. The best course of action is to start the season with Bichette, see if he can rebuild his value, and then, either make an attempt to re-sign him or move him at the trade deadline to get some assets in return.
Finding more thump for the lineup
The Blue Jays regressed from being one of the league's most fearsome offensive teams to a below average group in 2024. Toronto's hitters finished 23rd in runs scored and 26th in home runs, continuing a downward trend over the past few years. Outside of Guerrero, there weren't any players who struck fear into opposing pitchers. Atkins made a conscious decision to move away from power in favor of defense and fundamentals following the 2022 campaign. The experiment hasn't gone well, and it's past time for the Blue Jays to once again embrace the long ball. Acquiring some power via trade or free agency should be near or at the top of the offseason wish list, though Atkins notably said last month that just adding power is "low-hanging fruit."
There are a handful of free agents who should be of interest to the Blue Jays if they decide to add more power.
Juan Soto, OF
Soto is one of the biggest free agents to ever hit the market and is a lock to sign a record contract. Soto leaving New York feels like a long shot, whether that means staying with the Yankees or going to the Mets. Regardless, the Blue Jays (and every other MLB team) should be calling and making an aggressive offer for someone who's on track to be one of the greatest offensive players of all time.
Pete Alonso, 1B
Alonso would certainly bring power to Toronto. The Mets slugger is second to only Aaron Judge with 226 home runs since making his debut in 2019. Signing Alonso would force Guerrero to move back to third base, but the offensive impact would likely be worth the defensive sacrifice.
Christian Walker, 1B
Walker has become one of the most underrated first basemen in baseball. He's an excellent defender and hit 95 home runs over the past three seasons. Walker will turn 34 in March, so there's a bit of concern about his age. However, he hasn't shown any significant signs of decline, so it's reasonable to expect solid production moving forward.
Teoscar Hernández, OF
Blue Jays fans are still sour about the trade that sent Hernández to the Seattle Mariners in 2022. Hernández is coming off a strong season for the Dodgers after signing a one-year deal. The Blue Jays passed on Hernández last offseason, so it's fair to wonder if they will even show interest this time around. Considering what he brings to the table both on and off the field, they would be wise to think long and hard about a reunion.
Anthony Santander, OF
Santander set himself up to cash in this offseason after setting career highs with 44 home runs and 102 RBIs. The 30-year-old is a switch-hitter, which adds a layer of value. Santander's hard-hit rate fell from 2023, but he capitalized on a 54.8% fly-ball rate by hitting over 17% of those for home runs. It's always risky to pay for a career season in free agency, but Santander should still be able to settle in as a consistent 30-homer hitter.
Tyler O'Neill, OF
O'Neill would become a fan favorite in Toronto as a native British Columbian. The 29-year-old has found it difficult to stay healthy throughout his career but has been productive when on the field. O'Neill hit 31 home runs with a 131 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in 113 games with the Red Sox in 2024. Strikeouts are always a concern, as he sports a 30.8 career K%. There will be peaks and valleys with O'Neill, but his raw power is as potent as almost anyone's in baseball.
Alex Bregman, 3B
The Blue Jays aren't strangers to signing a linchpin from the Astros dynasty after poaching George Springer ahead of the 2021 campaign. Bregman struggled out of the gate in 2024 but finished the season strong with 14 home runs and an .834 OPS after the All-Star break. The Blue Jays have a need at third base, but it might be a stretch to expect them to be hyperaggressive for Bregman after letting Matt Chapman depart for the San Francisco Giants last year.
The bullpen needs a complete overhaul
The Blue Jays' bullpen was a disaster in 2024. Toronto's relievers ranked in the bottom three in the league in ERA (4.82), strikeouts (502), and home runs allowed (92). Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson missed large chunks of time due to injury and saw their performance fall off a cliff from 2023 when they were trusted members of a surprisingly strong bullpen group.
Romano is projected to earn almost $8 million in his final year of arbitration, and it's not a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays will sign up for that salary for a pitcher who was trending in the wrong direction in some metrics before his injury-plagued season. Atkins has never been one to give out multi-year deals to relievers given how volatile the position can be. He might be forced to change that strategy if the Blue Jays want to bring in the type of impact arms that can resurrect one of the league's worst bullpens.
Luckily, the relief market is stocked with options that could immediately boost the bullpen in 2025.
Tanner Scott, LHP
Scott is the marquee reliever on the market after a tremendous campaign split between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins. The left-hander posted a 1.75 ERA with strong strikeout numbers in 72 innings. Scott's been excellent since the start of 2023, amassing a combined 4.4 fWAR with a 2.04 ERA, 224 ERA+ (100 is league average), and 11.3 K/9.
Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Signing Hoffman would be something of a full-circle moment after he left as a big prospect in the 2015 Troy Tulowitzki trade. Hoffman never found his footing as a starting pitcher but has become an elite option out of the bullpen. The 31-year-old made his first All-Star Game appearance in 2024 and owns a 2.28 ERA with a 12.0 K/9 in 122 appearances since the start of 2023.
Clay Holmes, RHP
Holmes appears to have worn out his welcome among Yankees fans but would still represent a major upgrade for a beleaguered Blue Jays bullpen. The two-time All-Star has been an excellent reliever for three straight years, and Holmes' sinker continues to be a dominant offering when he's able to command it. A change of scenery could benefit Holmes, and the Blue Jays should be among the teams in the mix.
Carlos Estévez, RHP
Estévez had a strong season with the Phillies and Angels and has a wealth of experience pitching in high-leverage situations with 57 saves over the past two seasons.
A.J. Minter, LHP
Minter carries some injury risk after a hip issue prematurely ended his 2024 campaign. The 31-year-old has been a dependable option for most of his career with a 3.28 ERA and 10.9 K/9 over eight MLB seasons.