Playoffs have a powerful lesson to teach Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays offseason had barely begun when Ross Atkins did what he's best known for: saying something that drives the team's fans crazy.
Asked about the Jays' dire need for home runs, the Toronto general manager responded: "Power is low-hanging fruit to add."
This sentiment was confusing. If home-run power is easy to find, and you need home-run power - the Jays were 26th among 30 Major League Baseball teams in home runs - then ... shouldn't you just add some? Why go after the harder-to-reach fruit?
Atkins elaborated: Power can also mean strikeouts.
"It's clear that contact is exceptionally important in the playoffs," Atkins added. "That's proven. So balancing that with power additions is obviously very important."
But is it? Jays fans can be forgiven for hoping that Atkins has been closely watching the World Series, where power has ruled the day.
The New York Yankees were poised to win Game 1 on a Giancarlo Stanton bomb - right up until Freddie Freeman hit his walk-off grand slam in extra innings. The Los Angeles Dodgers shelled the Yankees in Game 2 with three homers in a no-doubt win. Freeman hit a two-run shot in the first inning of Game 3, and the Dodgers never looked back. And Game 4, which also began with a Freeman blast, turned on a grand slam from New York's Anthony Volpe.
That may seem anecdotal, but the pattern extends far beyond one series. Teams that out-homer their opponents are 23-7 in the 2024 playoffs. They were 25-4 in the previous postseason, and 22-6 in the one before that. In 2021, the team with more home runs in a playoff game went 25-2.
Contact is exceptionally important in the playoffs, Atkins says? What about dingers?
The 2024 Blue Jays had precisely one guy with serious pop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his 30 home runs. Toronto seems to have spent much of the past two seasons actively discounting the value of power in both word and deed. After the 2022 playoffs, the Jays prioritized run prevention, which coincided with their drop from seventh in MLB in home runs to 16th in 2023 before this season's further decline. Bench coach Don Mattingly said in April that he was leery of chasing power. "I don't really see us as a huge power club," he said. "But we do have a chance for, I think, four or five guys hitting 20 (home runs) or above."
Not quite. Besides Guerrero, George Springer hit 19 homers and the club got 18 from Daulton Varsho, but no one else even managed 15 home runs.
Conveniently for Atkins and the Blue Jays, this offseason's free-agent market features some sluggers. Anthony Santander (44 home runs), Juan Soto (41), Pete Alonso (34), and old friend Teoscar Hernández (33) are among many available big bats.
The Jays' need to add power is underscored by the fact that the roster is reasonably set elsewhere. One thing these World Series teams don't have? Stellar pitching rotations. The Dodgers, beset by injuries, can only muster three starters, and one of them is deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole, who hasn't been lights out; Carlos Rodón, victim of Game 2's shelling; plus Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt. A Toronto playoff rotation of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt wouldn't look totally out of place.
The Blue Jays' 2024 bullpen was, of course, a tire fire, but again, modern playoff rosters aren't teeming with pricey relievers. The Yankees are backstopped by Luke Weaver, a 30-year-old journeyman who took over the closer role from Clay Holmes and shut down the Dodgers late in Game 4 when the outcome was still in the balance. The Dodgers lost closer Evan Phillips to injury in the NLCS and yet took a commanding World Series lead while using other relievers in high-leverage spots. If nothing else, these star-laden teams with massive payrolls are demonstrating that bullpens don't need to be stocked with Grade-A pitchers in order to manufacture playoff success. This season produced two of the most dominant bullpens in the game's history in Cleveland and Milwaukee, but the Guardians and Brewers are sitting at home after their relievers got lit up in key moments.
The 2024 Blue Jays looked nothing like a playoff team. As Atkins and the front office attempt to build one of those, their starting point should be obvious. Toronto needs power bats, and more than one of them. It's those guys who are consistently turning losses into wins in October.
There's no reason to overthink it. Just grab some of that low-hanging fruit.
Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.