2025 Baseball HOF preview: Will Beltrán, Wagner finally make it?

With the Baseball Hall of Fame's class of 2024 announcement approaching, it's time to review this year's ballot. Today, we highlight the returnees poised to make serious gains in voting and perhaps even enter Cooperstown. One of them appears to finally be ready for his long-awaited moment. Will anyone else get a phone call next week?

Note: All WAR figures from Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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Andruw Jones I Chase Utley I Billy Wagner

Carlos Beltrán

Position: CF
Years: 1998-2017
Teams: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
JAWS: 57.3 (9th at CF)
WAR: 70.1 (8th)
Year on ballot: 3rd (57.1% in 2024)

In his prime, Beltrán was arguably his generation's best two-way center fielder. He never led a major offensive category and missed a few milestones because of hard-luck injuries, but he stood tall year after year as a cornerstone switch-hitting, five-tool center fielder for two decades.

Beltrán's Cooperstown credentials can sneak up on you: He's one of just eight players with 300 home runs and 300 stolen bases. An excellent baserunner, Beltrán owns the highest stolen-base percentage (86.4%) among players with at least 300 attempts and sits 29th in doubles and 25th in extra-base hits. His 38 defensive runs saved in center field since 2003 place him third at the position. He's a hair below the average HOF center fielder in JAWS and WAR, and everyone above him, save for the still-active Mike Trout, is already in.

His prominent role in the 2017 Astros' sign-stealing scheme has kept him from being enshrined for the first two years. Beltrán was the only active player named in commissioner Rob Manfred's report on the scandal. He initially denied wrongdoing, but the league cited him as a key participant early in the investigation. The Mets hired Beltrán as their manager around the time MLB discovered the scheme, and the sides agreed to part ways before he ever managed a game.

The history of illegal sign-stealing in baseball is long and well-documented. Suffice to say, the Astros were hardly groundbreakers. Voters at least recognized that much, as Beltrán's never been in danger of dropping off the ballot. Had the scandal never happened, he'd likely still have needed a couple of years to grow his case. So, the question surrounding Beltrán has morphed from why he's being "punished" to how long this will continue.

Beltrán is polling well above 75% in the tracker for the first time - he's at 80.2% as of Sunday. His net gain of 31 votes was the biggest of 2024, and he's leading that category again this year at plus-20. Beltrán needs to start flipping the more conservative private voters, which won't be easy in light of the scandal.

There's now an outside chance Beltrán can stay above 75% and go into the Hall on Tuesday. Even if that doesn't happen, he'll come out of this cycle in perfect position to headline the class of 2026, when he'll be the most qualified candidate on a wide-open ballot.

Andruw Jones

Position: CF
Years: 1996-2012
Teams: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
JAWS: 54.6 (11th at CF)
WAR: 62.7 (14th)
Year on ballot: 7th (61.6% in 2024)

Jones has a legitimate case as the greatest defensive center fielder ever. He's got the hardware to prove it: only two outfielders - Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente - won more Gold Gloves than Jones' 10. The stats back it up, too: Jones' 235 fielding runs, which track defense across all eras, are 50 ahead of second-place Mays in center. And the eye test? Oh, you better believe he passes.

Jones' defense was so great that it credibly builds his entire Hall of Fame case, even when accounting for his rapid decline at age 31. Without that sudden drop-off and a late-career move to Japan, he likely would've reached 2,000 MLB hits. However, the BBWAA has never elected an expansion-era player (since 1961) into the HOF with less than 2,000. Jones also might've taken a run at 500 homers since he was no slouch offensively, winning the Hank Aaron Award for his 51-homer season in 2005. But without the round numbers, defense carries the load. That's why it's taken so long for voters to see his case.

Jones failed to crack 8% in his first two tries before support began to grow steadily. His overall climb can be attributed to the changing electorate, as younger voters are more likely to be swayed by his nontraditional Hall of Fame case. First-time voters played a huge role in Jones' jump above 50% in 2023 - 64.7% in that category last year - and that's continuing this year, with new voters checking his name at a 66.7% clip (70.6% when including tallies from two returning voters who sat out last year's election).

Jones' net gain of 44 votes in 2023 was a catalyst for his 41% spike in year-over-year support and jump above 50%. But he followed that up with a net of just plus-nine in 2024 and only nine thus far in '25. His 72.1% tracker total is impressive and might even rise above 75% before Tuesday, but it'll also fall sharply when private tallies - the group he's still struggling to reach - are added in. Still, Jones is in great shape with two years to go.

Chase Utley

Position: 2B
Years: 2003-18
Teams: Phillies, Dodgers
JAWS: 56.9 (12th at 2B)
WAR: 64.5 (15th)
Year on ballot: 2nd (28.8% in 2024)

Few athletes personified Philadelphia quite like Utley, the hard-nosed soul of the Phillies' great late-aughts teams. He was also one of the best in the business at the keystone, placing a hair below the average HOF second baseman in JAWS and WAR and well above the mean in seven-year peak WAR (49.3).

From 2005-11, Utley hit .293/.383/.513 (131 OPS+) while averaging 25 homers, 88 RBIs, and 15 steals a year. He scored 100-plus runs in four of those campaigns, including a National League-best 131 in 2006, and tallied an MLB-best 122 defensive runs saved for good measure. Only Albert Pujols accrued more WAR over that span than Utley's 49.3. He did all that while leading the Phillies to five straight NL East crowns and the 2008 World Series title - where he made his signature play late in the clinching Game 5.

Utley's shorter career cost him important traditional counting numbers. But he made up for those shortcomings with a 118 wRC+ that matches Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar's and is better than Craig Biggio's and Ryne Sandberg's. His 64.5 career WAR is fourth among players with less than 2,000 hits (Mookie Betts passed him in 2024). The low hit total is easier to overlook when you add Utley's high OBP (.358) and stellar baseball IQ as an elite baserunner and defender.

Speaking of defense, Utley - who inexplicably won zero Gold Gloves - is one of the greatest defensive second basemen ever. He's seventh at the keystone in fielding runs (131), which spans all eras, and second in DRS (123) since 2003. One of just 22 players with 100 career DRS across all positions, Utley also owns five of the top 30 single-season DRS seasons at second.

For such a nontraditional Hall of Fame case, Utley started his journey strong, debuting at 28.8% last year. This time around, he's up to 53.5% in the tracker with a net gain of 11, putting him in position for a massive gain even if that percentage drops in the final vote. Utley's on the right path long term, and that's excellent news.

Billy Wagner

Position: RP
Years: 1995-2010
Teams: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
R-JAWS: 24.9 (6th at RP)
WAR: 27.7 (14th)
Year on ballot: 10th (73.8% in 2024)

A reliever really has to stand out from the pack to be considered for the Hall of Fame. Wagner, perhaps the best southpaw closer ever, did that and then some over a 16-year career that's brought him to Cooperstown's doorstep.

Among his credentials: "Billy Wags" ranks eighth all time in saves, owns a lower WHIP than Mariano Rivera (albeit in over 300 fewer innings), and has the highest K/9 rate (11.9) among pitchers with at least 900 innings. He never led in saves but ranked top-10 in 10 of 16 seasons, had four 100-K campaigns, and earned Cy Young votes twice, including a fourth-place finish in 1999. Wagner even cracked the pitching WAR leaderboard once, placing 10th in the NL in '99.

On the other side, Wagner's 903 innings is a very low total, even for a one-inning reliever. Excluding Negro Leaguers, he'd be the first Hall of Fame pitcher with fewer than 1,000 big-league innings. While Wagner is right behind five of the eight Hall of Fame relievers in R-JAWS (Jay Jaffe's metric that offsets starting pitcher WAR to help better evaluate relievers), he's well back of the average HOF stopper in traditional JAWS, WAR, and seven-year peak WAR. Wagner also struggled in the playoffs and never closed for a World Series champion.

Wagner's overall body of work finally gained recognition in the last few years. After a 33.5% spike of support in 2023, Wagner was set for a call last year but fell short by five votes. That's not happening again. He's already picked up nine votes with no losses in the tracker and is polling at 84.9%. Come Tuesday, Wagner will pass the title of "best reliever outside Cooperstown" to someone else because he's heading to the Hall of Fame.