Should the Blue Jays just pay Guerrero what he wants?

The Toronto Blue Jays and star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. avoided arbitration last week, agreeing to a one-year, $28.5-million contract for 2025. It will be Guerrero's final year under team control before hitting free agency.

Earlier this winter, Guerrero acknowledged he would not negotiate an extension after spring training starts, and it was reported the sides are close to $100 million apart.

With time ticking on an extension, our editors Brandon Wile and Josh Goldberg discuss whether it's time for the Blue Jays to just pay Guerrero what he wants.

Pay the man!

Sometimes it's OK to admit you've lost your leverage and accept it. That's where the Blue Jays' front office finds itself with Guerrero. The opportunity to sign him to a long-term extension earlier in his career is gone, and the market is totally different after Juan Soto's contract. It's time to throw out whatever evaluation they had and just get a deal done.

The Blue Jays swung and missed on Shohei Ohtani. They swung and missed on Soto. They demonstrated they have the cash to pull it off, and you'd better believe Guerrero was watching it all unfold, likely asking himself why they aren't backing up the truck for him. Guerrero knows he has the upper hand at this point, and his side has played the negotiations well. He said earlier this winter that Toronto's offer wasn't close to what he wanted, and he has the court of public opinion on his side, even as he seeks close to $450 million, which would be the third-richest contract in MLB history. He's done, and said, all the right things to put pressure on the front office.

While history would say a first baseman is not worth that type of contract, baseball has changed in recent years; younger players are getting paid more. Guerrero will be entering his age-26 season in 2025, which is one of the main reasons why his value will be so high.

"The market is driven by different factors. To get a player, you have to pay a certain price," Red Sox president Sam Kennedy told NESN on Saturday when speaking generally about free agency. "So, you didn't overpay, you paid what you need to pay to get the player."

Considering where the Blue Jays are at, there will be no overpay with Guerrero. It will be the cost of doing business. While Toronto would be bidding against itself right now, the cost could go even higher if he reaches free agency. We watched how this winter played out with Soto and how one aggressive owner can drive up the price to a previously unthinkable number.

The reality is, at this point, the Blue Jays need Guerrero more than Guerrero needs the Blue Jays.

Toronto is coming off a last-place finish in the AL East. The farm system ranks among the worst in baseball as this regime has traded away a lot of prospect capital while simultaneously struggling to develop talent to supplement the major-league club. The Blue Jays' reputation for failing to attract free agents is a bit of a misconception, but they've watched a number of key targets sign elsewhere in recent years. The most difficult thing to do in pro sports is to acquire star talent, so when you do, it's essential to do everything possible to keep them signed long term.

After spending over $300 million in renovations, the Blue Jays can't risk attendance taking a dive in upcoming years. This front office and ownership can't risk the reputation hit that would come with having Guerrero walk. Seeing Guerrero hit free agency and potentially sign with a division rival could cause irrevocable damage to the fan base. There will be no shortage of suitors next winter when Guerrero would headline the position-player class.

Baseball has no salary cap, and the Blue Jays have a lot of money coming off the books in upcoming years. They could comfortably absorb whatever extension Guerrero receives. He's been open about wanting to stay, and the fan base adores him. Is there significant risk involved? Of course there is. There's risk in every contract signed. But sometimes you have to roll the dice and hope it works in your favor. It's time for the front office to accept reality and pay Guerrero what he wants and use him as the foundational piece you build around for the next decade. - Wile

No. There has to be a limit

I'm not saying the Blue Jays should walk away from Guerrero without making an effort to retain him. It's more a case of having a number in mind and a willingness to hold firm. This is the most prominent contract negotiation in the history of the franchise. Guerrero is a homegrown star that fans have been drawn to since he was signed as an international free agent in 2015. But he isn't without some flaws.

Guerrero has had two explosive offensive seasons during his career. If he could consistently approach that level of production for the remainder of his playing days, signing him long term would be the easiest decision a front office ever faced. However, the situation is a little bit more nuanced than that. Guerrero posted a 166 wRC+ in 2021 and a 165 wRC+ in 2024. He accompanied those two monster campaigns with fWARs of 6.3 and 5.5. Those are valuable figures at a position like first base that historically depresses a player's overall WAR as a result of defensive value. But beyond those two seasons, Guerrero's been more of a very good player than a truly great one.

The market has certainly changed over time, but it's still notable that first basemen historically get less in free agency than other positions. Miguel Cabrera inked an eight-year, $248-million extension with the Detroit Tigers in 2014 at the age of 31. Albert Pujols joined the Los Angeles Angels on 10-year, $254-million deal ahead of his age-32 campaign in 2012. Guerrero's age makes the situation a different one, but it nonetheless complicates the idea of ponying up for somebody that isn't a five-tool player.

The Blue Jays are not in an enviable position. The farm system is thin, and even if Guerrero stays long term, the future doesn't look incredibly bright. However, that doesn't mean they should feel forced to give him an exorbitant contract. The Blue Jays should make their highest offer, and if Guerrero doesn't take it, test the trade waters and see what they turn up. The Blue Jays missed their chance to sign Guerrero for a lower number. It could end up costing them his services in the long run. - Goldberg