Scherzer signing represents fun gamble for Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have certainly kept things interesting this offseason.

It was a disappointing start to the winter for general manager Ross Atkins. The club took big swings in pursuing Corbin Burnes, Juan Soto, and Roki Sasaki but walked away empty-handed. However, persistence - and a lot of money - paid off in recent weeks, with the club adding reliever Jeff Hoffman, outfielder Anthony Santander, and, on Thursday, starter Max Scherzer.

Hoffman and Santander will likely provide the biggest impact, but Scherzer might be the most intriguing acquisition the Blue Jays make this winter. While Scherzer's best years are behind him, bringing in a future first-ballot Hall of Famer will always cause a stir.

We break down the pros and cons of the Blue Jays' reported signing of Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5-million deal.

Pro - Blue Jays get Mad Max: Fury Road

Even at 40 years old, Scherzer will draw a crowd.

As much as Scherzer will want to win, he'll also be be chasing down some major milestones: He's 122 innings away from 3,000 and 93 strikeouts away from 3,500. Only nine pitchers in MLB history have reached the 3,500-strikeout plateau.

But Scherzer isn't just in Toronto to pad stats to cap off his career. Though he's battled injuries (we'll touch on that later), Scherzer's remained an effective starter when he's been able to take the mound. He posted a 3.95 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts across 43 1/3 innings last season. Those aren't ace numbers, but any team would love those results from the back end of its rotation.

There's no denying Scherzer's stuff is in decline, but his chase rate (36.4%), whiff rate (29.2 %), and walk rate (5.6%) from last season all remain strong, and that's coming off back surgery. Scherzer's 8.31 K/9 last season was the second-worst rate of his career but still represents a respectable number, and it was higher than Kevin Gausman (8.06 K/9) and Jose Berrios (7.16) in 2024.

While the Blue Jays have struggled to draft and develop pitching in the lower levels, the club has had success keeping its veteran starters healthy. Chris Bassitt, Gausman, and Berrios have all made at least 30 starts in their combined eight seasons in Toronto. That's important when considering Scherzer's biggest red flag is his injury history.

Scherzer's addition not only solidifies the back end of the rotation but also pushes Yariel Rodríguez into the bullpen. A depth starter who can also slot in as a reliever feels like a more appropriate fit for Rodríguez.

Adding veteran leadership is often overstated, especially considering this isn't a young Blue Jays team. Bo Bichette made that clear last season. But it never hurts to bring in someone with Scherzer's resume: three-time Cy Young winner, eight-time All-Star, two-time World Series champion. He brings credibility to the organization and can also help mentor young starters.

"Obviously, people know the talent that he has, but mentally, how intelligent he is, is off the charts," Bassitt told David Singh of Sportsnet in 2023. "I've never been around a guy who's more prepared and more in tune with what the other team's trying to do than him."

The most encouraging part of the signing might be ownership's continued commitment to increase payroll. The Blue Jays have spent $156 million in free agency so far, took on more than the $100 million remaining on Andrés Giménez's deal, and are operating with a franchise-record $273-million CBT payroll, per FanGraphs. Is that money well spent? We'll see, but this also comes on the heels of Rogers sinking considerable money into stadium renovations despite a struggling Canadian dollar. Toronto has underachieved during Atkins' 10-year tenure, but it's not because of ownership's financial commitment.

Cons - Blue Jays get Mad Max: The Wasteland

The shine from the Scherzer signing will come off quick at the first sign of injury. There's always durability concerns when you add any pitcher - that's the nature of the sport - but Scherzer will be one of only three MLB starting pitchers 40 or older this season.

He's not exactly coming off the healthiest season, either. Scherzer was limited to a career low in innings pitched and went on the injured list three times in 2024 due to a hamstring strain, shoulder fatigue, and recovery from back surgery. He made just one start over the final two months of the season.

Scherzer did make 50 starts and threw a combined 298 innings over the previous two seasons. Even if he can remain an effective starter, it's hard to know how much his body can withstand after so much wear and tear over 17 MLB seasons.

Scherzer's fastball averaged 94 mph in 2022. That number dropped slightly to 93.7 mph in 2023, and then down to 92.5 mph last season. He was able to find some success by using his slider more, which could be an option moving forward should his velocity continue to decline.

Hitters slugged .492 off his four-seamer in 2024 after slugging .370 two years prior. Scherzer was able to have continued success against right-handed hitters last season (.228/.237/.435), though lefties slashed .260/.345/.438. It'll be interesting to see how he continues to tweak his repertoire as his power diminishes.

Although the top free-agent starting pitchers are off the market, Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (rejected qualifying offer) remain unsigned. Both pitchers would likely require a longer commitment and much more money than Scherzer, but they also come with less risk and a higher ceiling. With less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report, the Blue Jays could've taken advantage of their depressed market.

The current starting staff is solid but has little margin for error. If Scherzer is sidelined for any amount of time, that lack of depth will be tested immediately.

Toronto's already blown by the first luxury-tax threshold, and despite what projects to be a franchise-record payroll, the offense still needs at least one more impact bat. Depending on how much more ownership is willing to spend, there's a case to be made that those resources would've been better served elsewhere than taking a $15.5-million gamble on Scherzer.

There's a path where Scherzer remains healthy and hits incredible career milestones in a Blue Jays uniform while helping the club fight for a playoff spot. There's another path where all the signs that Scherzer's body was breaking down were right in front of everyone's eyes. We'll find out if the gamble pays off soon enough.