What the odds say: Did Guerrero make right call by betting on himself?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. couldn't come to a contract extension by Guerrero's self-imposed deadline, meaning the slugger is very likely headed toward free agency after the 2025 season.
Specific details of the negotiations remain unclear. Guerrero asserted the two sides were never close, while general manager Ross Atkins indicated the Blue Jays were ready to make Guerrero "one of the highest-paid players in the game," according to MLB.com's Keegan Matheson.
By walking away from the negotiating table, Guerrero is essentially betting on himself, believing his walk-year production will be good enough to earn him a Juan Soto-type contract (Soto signed a 15-year, $765-million deal with the New York Mets this offseason).
Guerrero will get paid if he exceeds expectations. But what are those expectations?
The betting market is a good place to start when projecting stats and comparing them to other top-tier talent.
Guerrero's home run total for the 2025 season is set at 30.5 at theScoreBet/ESPN Bet, with the over having -125 odds (55.6% implied probability).
He has the 13th-shortest odds to lead the bigs in home runs at +4000, the same odds as Bryce Harper, Christian Walker, Gunnar Henderson, and Jose Ramirez.
For comparison, Soto's total is set at 34.5 with the over at +105 (48.8% implied probability), and he has the seventh-shortest odds to top MLB in homers at +2500.
Aaron Judge, currently playing on a nine-year, $360-million deal, is the +400 favorite to lead the league in homers.
Guerrero is +1500 to win the American League MVP, good for fifth on the oddsboard. Judge is the +350 favorite, with Bobby Witt Jr. (+450), Gunnar Henderson (+750), and Yordan Alvarez (+750) ahead of Guerrero.
Outside of the betting market, FanGraphs projects Guerrero to have the 18th-highest WAR among batters, tied with Corey Seager and William Contreras.
Judge projects to lead the league in WAR at 7.3. Witt (6.9), Henderson (6.7), Soto (6.5), and Julio Rodríguez (6.1) round out the top five.
Based on his season totals and FanGraphs' projections, Guerrero isn't expected to post career numbers in his walk year - he hit 48 home runs and posted 6.3 WAR in 2022.
With that said, Guerrero may not need a career year to get what he's asking for. Teams often overspend during free agency, especially when they're bidding on 26-year-old MVP candidates.
Still, Guerrero will likely need to hit the over on his season totals and at least meet FanGraphs' projections to warrant a contract that puts him among the likes of Soto and Shohei Ohtani, assuming he was looking for a deal that pays him in the ballpark of $50 million a year.
Whether or not either side made the right call by not coming to an agreement before the season remains to be seen, but both parties are taking a gamble.