What can we expect from the 2025 Blue Jays?

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the 2025 campaign defined by uncertainty. The club has failed to maximize its window of opportunity over the past few seasons and faces the very realistic prospect of losing both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette by this time next year.

The Blue Jays' win total declined from 92 in 2022 to 74 in 2024 as they finished in the basement of the AL East for the first time since 2013. Their roster is among the oldest in the league, and they own a farm system that ranks in the bottom 10 on most lists. The AL East is still a daunting proposition, even with teams like the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles facing their own questions. A lot will need to go right if the Blue Jays want to engineer a quick turnaround and get back into contention this season.

Here, we look at some reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about what the 2025 campaign might hold for the Blue Jays.

Reasons for optimism

An experienced rotation

The rotation of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Bowden Francis is undoubtedly the Blue Jays' strongest positional group. Gausman, Berríos, and Bassitt have been dependable workhorses during their respective stints in Toronto - the three combined for 94 starts last season and are good bets to threaten 200 innings and eclipse 30 starts. There's a lot of value in that reliability when pitchers are being removed from games earlier and earlier. Scherzer's health is the biggest question mark, but he's shown he can still get outs at a high level if he's able to take the mound. Francis emerged as a legitimate starting pitcher in 2024 and looks like a very capable fourth or fifth starter despite his struggles this spring. If the Blue Jays are going to make any noise in the standings in 2025, the pitching staff will be one of the big reasons why.

A motivated Bichette and Guerrero

A contract year can often bring out the best in a player. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are recent examples of players who elevated their game ahead of free agency to set up a massive payday, and Bichette and Guerrero have that opportunity in 2025. Guerrero rejected a long-term contract from the Blue Jays reportedly worth at least $400 million. He's taking on a fairly substantial level of risk in betting that he can produce this season and make more, either from the Blue Jays or in free agency.

Bichette needs to put a disastrous 2024 campaign behind him and show he can return to being an upper-echelon shortstop. It's a delicate balance, as both players performing well is key to the club's success. Even though a strong showing could hurt Toronto's chances of retaining either star in the long run, the Blue Jays need to focus on team success this year and let the free agency chips fall where they may in the offseason.

Improved bullpen

The Blue Jays made fixing last year's calamitous bullpen, which cost the team several games, a priority. Jeff Hoffman, the returning Yimi García, and Nick Sandlin were brought in to boost a bullpen that finished 29th in ERA and strikeouts last season. Hoffman and García in particular have proven adept at handling high-leverage situations. Assuming good health, the Blue Jays should be able to cobble together at least an average bullpen in 2025 - a gigantic improvement from last year's mess.

Wide-open American League

Since MLB expanded the number of teams that qualify for the postseason, playoff runs by the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Arizona Diamondbacks have proven that anything can happen if a team can just get in. The American League in particular looks as weak as it has in some time. The Yankees lost Juan Soto. The Houston Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The Orioles haven't proven a thing in October. Almost every team in the AL has at least one major question mark heading into the season.

Reasons for pessimism

Starting pitching depth

For as strong as the five-man rotation looks on paper, things could get hairy if a pitcher is forced to miss time. The Blue Jays have lacked pitching depth for several seasons, and it appears to be a sore spot once again. Right-hander Yariel Rodríguez, who showed flashes during his rookie season, is the most likely candidate to move into the rotation in the event of an injury. But he still has his limitations. Beyond that, right-hander Jake Bloss looks nowhere close to being ready to go through the order multiple times in the major leagues. Trey Yesavage has put himself on the map as a prospect to keep a close eye on, but he looks to be another year of seasoning in the minors away from making an impact. Ryan Yarbrough is surprisingly no longer on the roster and Alek Manoah is unlikely to be healthy enough to return before August at the earliest. It's always hard to forecast a pitcher's ability to stay healthy for the entirety of a long MLB season. The Blue Jays could be in trouble if the injury bug beckons for any of their starting pitchers.

Question marks in the lineup

Anthony Santander is a welcome addition to a Blue Jays lineup that finished the 2024 regular season 26th in home runs, 23rd in runs scored, and 17th in OPS. Santander's coming off a 44-homer campaign and provides power from both sides of the plate while offering protection for Guerrero. Despite that, the lineup is still filled with potential sore spots. The Blue Jays made an interesting bet that second baseman Andrés Giménez can improve at the plate and perform closer to his 2022 form. If he's more of the .674 OPS hitter of the past two campaigns, he won't do much to move the needle. There are also many question marks with hitters like Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement. The Blue Jays should be a better offensive ball club than last year's edition. The question remains whether that improvement is enough to win more games.

Tough early schedule

The Blue Jays have no time to get acclimated to start the campaign with an incredibly difficult April schedule. Outside of a three-game series at Rogers Centre against the Washington Nationals, Toronto will exclusively play playoff-caliber teams through the first weekend of May. Coming through this stretch around .500 would be a success. Conversely, a poor record could set the tone for a long season and force the team to evaluate some tough questions much sooner than anticipated.

Potential distraction from Guerrero's contract situation

Guerrero's contract situation feels like a cloud hanging over the entire franchise. Even if he performs, it's easy to see the narrative developing that it's pushing him closer to free agency and closer to leaving the only team he's ever known. The All-Star first baseman whipped everything into a frenzy by disclosing some details of the negotiations and also mentioned his openness to play for any team in the league. A slow start to the season for Guerrero, the team, or both, could serve as a major distraction with everyone pointing at the contract situation as a potential culprit.