Looking ahead to 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

With the National Baseball Hall of Fame's star-studded 2025 class officially inducted, it's time to turn our attention to the next round of voting in January. The group of first-time candidates is notably thin, as even the biggest names stand little chance of earning first-ballot induction. However, that opens the door for several returning candidates who've been caught in past logjams to make some long-awaited gains and perhaps even receive a phone call in six months.

Here's an early forecast of the 2026 ballot.

Note: All WAR figures courtesy Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.

The newcomers

Most intriguing newcomer

Here's the only newcomer with even a long-term chance at induction. Hamels reached 2,500 strikeouts - a milestone that could become the modern equivalent of 3,000, given today's pitching trends - threw a no-hitter, boasts a stellar playoff resume that includes the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVPs, and owns a lower ERA than Hall of Fame lefty Tom Glavine, among others. Conversely, the southpaw never finished higher than fifth in Cy Young voting and never led his league in a major category. Assuming he can survive past Year 1, Hamels presents another fascinating modern pitching case for voters.

Other notable first-timers

These five newcomers stand out as the best of the rest.

Braun looked like he was on his way to Cooperstown at one point. The Brewers icon won an MVP, Rookie of the Year, five Silver Sluggers, and ranks top-25 in JAWS at left field. However, Braun retired at the age of 36 before reaching significant milestones such as 2,000 hits and 400 home runs. Ultimately, though, the real reason he has no chance at induction is due to his 65-game suspension in 2013 as part of the Biogenesis drug scandal and subsequent admission to using steroids during his MVP season.

Choo, an on-base machine during his 16-year big-league career, can make history as the first Korean-born player to appear on a Hall of Fame ballot (Chan Ho Park was eligible in 2016 but didn't make the final cut). Though he played his final MLB game in 2020, Choo only retired last year after spending his final four seasons in the KBO.

A feared slugger in the Blue Jays' powerful mid-2010s lineups, Encarnación's 424 home runs rank ninth in the majors since 2000.

Gordon was perhaps the premier defensive left fielder of his era, winning eight Gold Gloves in 14 seasons.

Markakis was a consistent and sweet-swinging outfielder who compiled nearly 2,400 hits between the Orioles and Braves.

One and done

These players logged the required 10 years of major-league service time and last played during the 2020 season, making them eligible to appear on next year's Hall of Fame ballot.

If they make it, they'll be unlikely to receive a single vote, let alone reach the 5% to remain eligible. That shouldn't be viewed as an insult to their excellent careers, which included multiple All-Star appearances, championships, awards, and no-hitters, among other accomplishments. Making the ballot is a prestigious honor that they should take pride in.

Position Players: Emilio Bonifácio, Francisco Cervelli, Chris Davis, Tyler Flowers, Howie Kendrick, Logan Forsythe, Matt Kemp, Jason Kipnis, Erik Kratz, Logan Morrison, Daniel Murphy, Eduardo Núñez, Hunter Pence, Sean Rodriguez, Justin Smoak, Neil Walker, Matt Wieters

Pitchers: Homer Bailey, Gio González, Kelvin Herrera, Jared Hughes, Jeremy Jeffress, Juan Nicasio, Iván Nova, Rick Porcello, Jeff Samardzija, Edinson Vólquez

Returning Candidates

On the doorstep

Last winter, Beltrán became the first player to miss election after polling above 80% in Ryan Thibodaux's tracker, thanks largely to a 21.1% public-private vote differential. His role in the 2017 Astros scandal and a somewhat non-traditional case continue to weigh him down among the more traditional private bloc, and it's the last thing standing in his way. Since modern voting began in 1966, only four candidates have failed to be voted in by the BBWAA after receiving more than 70% of the votes. Now that Beltrán's above that mark on a wide-open ballot with seven years of eligibility left, it'll be a shock if he's not headlining the class of 2026.

Jones, arguably the greatest defensive center fielder ever, also has a clearer path to the Hall of Fame but is running out of time. His unique case of elite defense without the round offensive numbers is still failing to win over the more traditional voters. While the thinner ballot should help draw more attention to his case, whether it's enough to push him past the 75% threshold is another question. Jones is the only other candidate who could realistically join Beltrán on stage next summer.

Getting closer

The one negative for Utley is that his minus-29.7% private-public vote differential was the largest in last year's tracker. He still has a long way to go with the more traditional voters, which isn't surprising considering his decidedly non-traditional credentials. Yet, Utley - a darling among the younger and analytical blocs - still almost reached 40% in Year 2, gaining a net 27 votes from returning members. With the logjam clearing, more voters have room to consider Utley's very worthy case.

Ready to rise (slowly)

If "King Félix" really is the test case for modern Hall of Fame pitchers, he passed the first exam with flying colors. Hernández's first-year total is higher than those of eventual inductees Mike Mussina (20.3% in 2014; elected 2019) and Larry Walker (20.3% in 2011; elected 2020), among others. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and he still has a long, slow climb to 75%. But Hernández couldn't have asked for a better start on the crowded 2025 ballot and should get a bit more support next year.

Stuck in the mud

Two of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time continue to spin their wheels because of their PED suspensions. Ramírez will likely get a small final-year bump next winter. Rodriguez is slightly ahead of Ramírez's pace after four years, but not by much.

Hoping to climb

These four returning candidates need plenty of help. Abreu, one of the more underrated outfielders of his era, enjoyed a small bump but still couldn't get above the 20% mark in Year 6. Time is the biggest enemy for both he and Buehrle, although the workhorse lefty is surprisingly back into double digits at the halfway point of his candidacy. Buehrle's survival has at least positioned his unique case well for a committee ballot down the road. It's unclear if Abreu can say the same.

Rodríguez has more than just time on his side now that Billy Wagner has been elected. Having hung onto his ballot spot yet again, "K-Rod" stands as the only eligible reliever with something close to a viable Hall of Fame case. While far from a lock, his resume is strong enough to warrant serious consideration despite the extremely high bar for a reliever.

Rollins isn't headed into the Hall anytime soon, but he continues to hang around and force voters to haggle with his case, which includes an MVP award, a World Series title, and his status as a franchise icon in Philadelphia. Don't sleep on him as a potential riser over the next few years.

So you're telling me there's a chance ...

Pettitte's sudden jump from no-man's-land to nearly 30% was perhaps last year's biggest shocker. He's got Yankees iconography and postseason heroics to boost his resume in front of the writers. What's not on his side, however, is time.

Trying again

These four return for another year after hanging onto their ballot spots by getting more than 5% of the vote in 2025. Pedroia and Wright, two single-team icons whose careers were hampered by injuries, get at least one more chance to sell potential voters on their merits. Vizquel and Hunter - the latter of whom shockingly held on for a sixth year - serve as downballot filler at this point.