Breaking down the MLB award races ahead of the final week
There's more than just playoff spots at stake over the final week-plus of the 2025 regular season. This period marks the last chance for players to pad their stats in the races for this year's postseason awards.
Here, we take stock of where the four major award races - MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year - stand in each league heading into the home stretch.
AL MVP
In the pinstriped corner, you have Aaron Judge moving toward his second straight AL MVP and third in four seasons. He leads the majors in all four slash categories, OPS+, and fWAR, paces the AL in walks, runs, and total bases, and sits second in homers and fourth in RBIs. Judge is two homers away from becoming the fourth player with four career 50-HR seasons and the seventh to hit 50 in consecutive years.
In the teal corner, you have Cal Raleigh setting a new standard for power at his position. "Big Dumper" broke Mickey Mantle's single-season home run record for switch-hitters and is flying towards an unprecedented 60-homer season as a primary catcher. Raleigh leads the majors in homers. He tops the AL in RBIs. He is second to Judge in walks, extra-base hits, and bWAR and third in wRC+. Did we mention he's doing all of this as an everyday catcher?
Both stars have ironclad statistical cases plus the "valuable" component as lynchpins of their respective teams. Sure, dark horse candidates, such as Tarik Skubal, José Ramírez, and George Springer, deserve consideration and could theoretically shake up this race. But let's be real: It's Judge versus Raleigh. Two historic seasons that would win unanimously any other year. How this vote plays out is anyone's guess.
NL MVP
Once again, this is Shohei Ohtani's award to lose, and he's not going to lose it. Ohtani's made more history this year as the first player to launch 50 home runs as a hitter and strike out 50 batters as a pitcher in the same season. As a hitter, he paces the NL in slugging, OPS, OPS+, runs, extra-base hits, and total bases. On the mound, despite completing five innings in just two of his 13 starts, Ohtani's 2.12 FIP leads all starters with at least 40 innings pitched, and his 11.85 K/9 ranks seventh in the NL under the same minimum. He's allowed only three homers and issued just eight walks. Who can top that?
Perhaps the only other NL player with a chance is Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies slugger's 53 homers lead the NL. His 128 RBIs are tops in the majors. And he sits top three in most other offensive categories. The Phillies' lineup might be lost without Schwarber, giving him the "valuable" component, but he'll have to hit 60 bombs to catch Ohtani.
Juan Soto could also be considered a dark horse on account of his shocking 40-30 season and his monster September carrying the collapsing Mets to the finish line. Arizona's Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll could also garner support if the Diamondbacks somehow sneak into the playoffs.
AL Cy Young
We already mentioned Skubal as a potential AL MVP dark horse, which makes it clear that the AL Cy Young race is over. Skubal leads the AL in ERA, WHIP, and BB/9, and he's second in strikeouts, innings, and K/9. He has the most 10-K games (10) and zero-walk games (13) in the majors. All that's left to find out is whether he'll join Sandy Koufax (1965-66), Greg Maddux (1994-95), and Pedro Martínez (1999-2000) as the fourth pitcher to win consecutive Cy Young awards unanimously.
Hunter Brown, Garrett Crochet, Jacob deGrom, and Max Fried are among the other potential AL finalists. And don't sleep on Aroldis Chapman, who deserves praise for his otherworldly season anchoring the Red Sox bullpen.
NL Cy Young
On the surface, this award has Paul Skenes' name written all over it. The Pirates ace has risen above his woeful team and turned in a gem of a season. His 2.03 ERA is easily the majors' lowest, and he leads the NL in strikeouts, WHIP, and fWAR. This comes despite him having a 10-10 record that's entirely a product of his club's dismal performance this year.
Skenes' closest competition appears to be Phillies lefty Cristopher Sánchez, who's quietly morphed into an ace. Sánchez ranks fifth in the NL in strikeouts, 10th in K/9, fourth in ERA, and second in FIP. He's given up just 12 homers in an NL-best 189 1/3 innings despite calling the cozy Citizens Bank Park home. Sánchez also anchors the rotation for the NL East champions, so it will be interesting to see if pitching for a contender helps him steal some first-place votes.
There's also a pair of NL West pitchers who aren't out of this race yet. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's saved the Dodgers' rotation this year and is finally looking like the all-world pitcher who won three Pacific League MVPs in his native Japan. In San Francisco, Logan Webb has kept the Giants afloat with a career-best season that's included reaching the 200-K mark for the first time. Freddy Peralta and Ranger Suárez could also garner support.
AL Rookie of the Year
One way or another, this award appears to be heading to West Sacramento. First baseman Nick Kurtz, the fourth overall pick last summer, has exploded onto the scene since being called up in late April. Kurtz is the third rookie in Athletics history to record a 30-homer season. In August, he became the first rookie in MLB history to have four home runs in a game. And barring a major slump, he'll become just the 14th rookie this century to slug above .600.
If anyone's going to beat Kurtz, it will be his teammate Jacob Wilson. The 23-year-old was the AL's starting shortstop at the All-Star Game in July. He's one of only two qualified hitters batting above .315 and still has a shot to become the third rookie to win a batting title in the modern era (since 1901). A contact machine who doesn't strike out, Wilson sports the third-lowest K rate among qualified hitters and likely would've been among the league leaders in hits if not for a fractured forearm in July.
Other AL rookies who should receive votes include White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery, Royals left-hander Noah Cameron, and Red Sox catcher Carlos Narváez. Roman Anthony's chances took a big hit after he landed on the injured list earlier in September.
NL Rookie of the Year
This year's crop of NL freshmen is surprisingly crowded and could lead to this vote being closer than some may have expected. Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin leads all rookies in his league with 70 RBIs, while his 115 wRC+, .439 slugging percentage, and 16 homers each rank second among qualified NL rookies. Baldwin seems to be in the driver's seat, but he's not running away with the award by any stretch.
Baldwin's biggest competitors seem to be two key players on postseason-bound teams from the NL Central. Cade Horton has emerged as the Cubs' best starter, with his 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP being the lowest among qualified NL rookie pitchers. However, his 7.4 K/9 rate is slightly on the lower side. In Milwaukee, switch-hitting outfielder Isaac Collins ranks second among qualified NL freshmen in wRC+ and OPS while playing great defense in left field.
But as we said, the field is deep. Nationals outfielder Daylen Lile, Marlins backstop Agustín Ramírez, Dodgers reliever Jack Dreyer, and Brewers infielder Caleb Durbin and pitcher Jacob Misiorowski are just a few of the newcomers enjoying stellar debut seasons. Any of them could turn this race on its head. Don't be surprised if this award ends up being the year's closest vote.
AL Manager of the Year
John Schneider is soon to lead the Blue Jays from worst to first in the AL East, not to mention the Junior Circuit's best record. Toronto's shocking season under Schneider's leadership makes the fourth-year skipper a favorite for this honor - something a Blue Jays manager hasn't won in 40 years.
Schneider faces stiff competition from A.J. Hinch, who's done a masterful job guiding the Tigers to the brink of their first division title in over a decade, and Joe Espada, who's kept the Astros in contention despite a litany of injuries. Bruce Bochy and Dan Wilson will also undoubtedly get first-place votes if the Rangers and Mariners complete their remarkable second-half runs. This one should be a close race.
NL Manager of the Year
Few prognosticators had the Milwaukee Brewers winning the NL Central, let alone sporting best record in the majors. Yet that's exactly what Pat Murphy's pesky squad is poised to do as the only team with a winning percentage above .600 and an MLB-best run differential that's 55 ahead of the closest team. Murphy should cruise to victory here, which would make him the third manager to win this award in consecutive seasons.
If Torey Lovullo's D-Backs or Bob Melvin's Giants manage to crash the postseason party, they might slightly increase their chances here. Mike Shildt, Rob Thomson, and Craig Counsell also have legitimate cases. Still, it would be a monumental upset if it's anyone but Murphy.