Bobby Witt Jr. is the new AL MVP favorite following Aaron Judge's rib injury, which will sideline the Yankees slugger for at least four-to-six weeks.
Judge was considered the betting favorite before Thursday night's game, priced at +120 (45.5% implied probability) on theScore Bet to win his third straight - and fourth career - AL MVP honor.
But Judge has plummeted to +10000 after news broke that he'll miss a significant portion of the season, and Witt has taken over as the favorite at +140.
AL MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +140 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +160 |
| Ben Rice | +475 |
| Nick Kurtz | +1100 |
| Julio Rodríguez | +2500 |
| José Ramírez | +3300 |
| Junior Caminero | +3300 |
| Shea Langeliers | +4000 |
| Byron Buxton | +5000 |
| Mike Trout | +7500 |
| Aaron Judge | +10000 |
| Cody Bellinger | +10000 |
| Miguel Vargas | +10000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +10000 |
Witt is hitting .281 with 70 hits (fourth in the AL) and 21 stolen bases. He leads the AL with 3.8 WAR, per FanGraphs, and is widely viewed as the best defensive shortstop in the league, having won back-to-back Gold Gloves.
But Yordan Alvarez is putting up some big numbers at the plate and is on pace to potentially have a stronger case come season's end. The Astros slugger leads the AL with a .316 batting average and 21 homers. He's tied for second in RBIs behind his teammate, Christian Walker, with 44.
Judge's injury effectively removes him from the MVP conversation. There's no minimum games played requirement for the award, but omitting shortened seasons, a position player hasn't won it while playing fewer than 120 games since George Brett in 1980. Brett appeared in 117 contests.
Of course, Judge's injury also hurts the Yankees' chances of winning the AL East. New York was the -225 favorite to win its division but is now priced at -145. While the Yankees are still the favorites, their implied chances of winning the AL East crown decreased by 10% due to Judge's extended absence.
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