Randal Grichuk: More than the outfielder drafted ahead of Mike Trout
Randal Grichuk, 22, has the unfortunate distinction of being the man, the baseball player, and the outfielder drafted one spot ahead of Mike Trout in the 2009 amateur draft. Grichuk was selected 24th overall by the Angels, a compensation pick by Los Angeles after the Mets signed Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels chose Trout next, 25th overall, another compensation pick, this time from the Yankees, who sent it Los Angeles' way after signing free agent Mark Teixeira.
It's not Grichuk's fault Trout's a generational talent, but that -- being selected one pick ahead of Trout -- was Grichuk's destiny; that's his legacy in baseball so far, five years after turning pro.
Grichuk was traded by the Angels on Friday, along with fellow outfielder Peter Bourjos, to the St. Louis Cardinals for third baseman David Freese and right-handed reliever Fernando Salas. There are worse organizations to be traded to than the Cardinals', that's for sure.
So, who are the Cardinals getting in Randal Grichuk? He remains a prospect, "a free swinger with good bat speed, plus raw power," according to Baseball America's Ben Badler. Grichuk bats and throws right-handed, and is a player who could swing the Freese-for-Bourjos trade heavily in the Cardinals' favor, if he can put it all together.
Grichuk spent the 2013 season at Double-A, hitting .256/.304/.474 in 128 games, with 22 home runs, 85 runs, and 64 RBI. He swings for the fences, and his 5.2 percent walk rate in 2013 leaves a lot to be desired.
Grichuk went into 2013 as the Angels' sixth-best prospect, according to Baseball America. FanGraphs' Marc Hulet ranked Grichuk as the Angels' ninth-best prospect in January 2013. Those rankings were on the heels of a 2012 season in which Grichuk, then 20, hit .298/.335/.488 2012 in 135 games in the Class A Advanced California League. He hit 18 home runs, 30 doubles, showing "solid pop," writes Hulet, scored 79 runs, and drove in 71 runs.
Grichuk didn't walk much in 2012, either. Remember, he's a "free swinger." His 5.2 percent walk rate was actually an improvement over his 4 percent walk rate in 2012. Walks or not, at the end of the day, Grichuk's displayed an above-average bat in the minors, posting a 109 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 2012, and a 116 wRC+ in 2013.
While Grichuk doesn't like to work walks, he's not prone to the strikeout. Here's what Baseball America's Matt Eddy wrote about Grichuk in his analysis of Friday's trade:
"Though he’s difficult to walk, Grichuk also is fairly difficult to strike out for a hitter with his kind of power. He has at least major league-average juice, but with the caveat that he’s coming off successive seasons with on-base percentages at .335 in the California League and .306 at Double-A. Arkansas’ pitcher-friendly ballpark cut significantly into Grichuk’s power output in 2013 (as it had Mike Trout’s in 2011 and Mark Trumbo’s in 2009), and he hit a healthier .274/.318/.529 with 16 home runs in 66 road games. Even with the home-park handicap, Grichuk managed to bash 22 homers and lead the Texas League in extra-base hits (57) and runs scored (89). If he hits for enough average, his other tools profile in right field."
About his abilities in the field, Hulet wrote early this year:
"He’s a steady, but unspectacular, fielder and has a strong enough arm for right field."
Grichuk made impressive strides in the field this past season. He won a Rawlings Minor League Gold Glove in 2013, making only two errors for Double-A Arkansas in 118 games in the outfield (95 in right field, and 23 in center field). He threw out 11 runners, and was a part of five double plays, which tied for the Texas League lead. The Cardinals, at the very least, may have acquired two above-average defenders in Friday's trade.
Kary Booher, a writer for Springfield's The News-Leader, and who writes about the Texas League for Baseball America, wrote about Grichuk in October, and projects him to be serviceable major-league hitter:
"Grichuk’s power at the plate manifested this season, proving that his 2012 season in the hitter-friendly high Class A California League was no fluke. With strong arms, he drove balls in the gaps and got enough lift to hit almost as many home runs (22) as doubles (27). He’ll need to add walks to his profile to get the most out of his raw hitting ability, but he shows enough balance and bat control to hit .260 or better in the big leagues. Playing mostly right field and some center, Grichuk showed an average arm but covered enough territory to easily profile on a corner.
"Scouts remarked that Grichuck didn’t let his good athletic frame sit idle. He hustled and played the game hard, and seemed to be focused through nine innings."
Grichuk, now in the vaunted Cardinals' system, is expected to start the 2014 season in Triple-A Memphis. He likely won't rank in St. Louis' top-10 prospects, writes the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold, but should slot "in the top half when it comes to the top 30."
Grichuk, by all accounts, is coachable and wants to improve. He's always had the ability to hit, but he's become better on the bases and in the field since turning pro. Being taught in the Cardinals' system can only help him reach his ceiling.
Most importantly, Grichuk remains a kid. He'll turn only 23 in August. As SB Nation's Minor League Ball's John Sickel writes, the Cardinals will likely work on Grichuk's approach at the plate next year, which will hopefully help him use his talents to drive the ball:
"Given [Grichuk's] age, work ethic, and the fact that the Cardinals emphasize strike zone judgment, I'd have to assume that working on his approach at the plate will be a primary goal in 2014. Grichuk doesn't have to turn into a walk machine, but even slight improvements with his strike zone judgment will go a long way, getting him better pitches to hit and express his power."
Remember, not every prospect can do what Mike Trout did, and make the jump to the major leagues two years after being drafted, and become baseball's best player a year later. Trout is the exception. Grichuk, drafted one pick ahead of Trout, can't be compared to him. Prospects take time. Especially in baseball.
Bottom line: the Cardinals acquired more than simply Peter Bourjos on Friday, by trading David Freese, and can now play Matt Carpenter at third base, where he's most comfortable. This trade, if Grichuk harnesses his hitting talents, has the potential to work out both in the short and long term for St. Louis.