Why Jason Heyward is good yet still not good enough
The relationship between Jason Heyward and fans of the Atlanta Braves is complicated because Jason Heyward is complicated. There are not many players who appear more talented, more full of tools and skills that can take over a baseball game and then lead a team to the playoffs.
Jason Heyward knows the playoffs well, as he’s tasted the postseason in three of his four big league seasons. In two of those years, Jason Heyward played like a superstar, posting exceptional numbers and anchoring strong lineups.
When he's right, he looks like the best player in baseball. When he isn’t right - if his shoulder is wonky or his approach abandons him or he’s glumly waiting to come off the disabled list - he still looks like one of the best players in baseball. It is only his play that suggests otherwise.
Still just 24-years old, it is important to set aside what Jason Heyward is and what he is not, as best we can tell, at this juncture of his career.
Jason Heyward is a superlative outfielder
Maybe the best outfielder in baseball? He certainly belongs in the conversation, as Heyward’s long strides eat up huge distances while his quick jumps get him on the path to the baseball early.
At worst, his throwing arm is strong and accurate. His speed and length allow him to make throws on balls other outfielders cannot.
Advanced defensive stats backup Heyward’s range in the outfield, crediting him with around 70 runs saved over the various systems. The Inside Edge scouting system has him making 27 plays in the outfield that were classed either “unlikely” or “remote” since the start of 2012, tops in both buckets.
Jason Heyward is not a power hitter
The whole “looks good in the uniform” thing backfires on the lean Braves outfielder, as his on-field results consistently fall short in the power department. Though he counted 27 bombs in 2012, he is yet to top 20 in another season. His isolated slugging (ISO, a quick measure of figuring extra base power calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage) is slightly above league average on a year by year basis, with his 2012 breakout year being the exception.
While Heyward put the ball in play much more consistently in 2013, lowering his strikeout rate to a career low 17%, making contact and hitting for a high average is not yet a skill he possesses. There is only so much a strong walk rate can paper over. High strikeouts with middling power production as well as a lacklustre average is not a favorable profile, especially for a corner outfielder.
Jason Heyward is a smart baserunner
Baserunning is a skill both underrated and overrated at the same time. Having someone who can take an extra base or go first to third with ease absolutely helps a team win games. The problem is good base runners are not hard to find, and they’re not especially valuable.
Tuesday night against the Giants in San Francisco, Heyward tagged up and advanced to second base on a fly ball off the bat of Justin Upton. The ball carried Giants center fielder Angel Pagan towards the vast “triples alley” in right center field at AT&T Park and Heyward made a great read to grab an extra 90 feet.
Despite his size, Heyward can be a threat on the bases, swiping 20 bags in 2012, though he only took two bases last year.
Jason Heyward misses games in bunches
Heyward is now in the fifth season of his career, and he has played 150 games in a season just once - you guessed it, 2012. He has four different trips to the disabled list on his resume, for a variety of ailments.
He missed a big chunk of time in 2013 after being struck in the face with a pitch. He missed a month earlier that year with an appendicitis, two injuries that are hard to hold against the Braves’ outfielder. His right shoulder shelved him in 2011 and a thumb sprain cost him games in 2010. On top of these disabled list stints, he missed games here and there with knee pain and leg muscle issues.
Labeling the victim of freak injuries and illnesses “injury prone” is hardly fair. But it’s hard to argue that, to this point, missing significant time year over year hurts Heyward’s perception just as it hurts his team as they attempt to replace him.
Jason Heyward is greater than the sum of his parts
The best way to evaluate Jason Heyward is to zoom out and take a wider look at Jason Heyward’s body of work. He’s an above-average hitter and excellent fielder who runs the bases well. He works counts and draws walks but might not be the power threat most fans envisioned after his incredible rookie season.
He’s prone to bad months or bad stretches where it looks like he’ll never get a hit again, though the stretches in which he looks like nobody could ever get him out are prominent too. There are only so many selective endpoints we can point to before the larger truth becomes too tough to ignore - Jason Heyward is a decent hitter. Good not great.
More than anything, Heyward is the sort of player built for a value statistic like Wins Above Replacement. He’s versatile enough that his defense and baserunning help his cause (as they help the team’s) but his lack of playing time counts as well. By WAR, Jason Heyward ranks in the top 20 in baseball since he broke into the league in 2010.
Top 20 in baseball is tough to do, yet it somehow feels like not enough. The challenge for Braves fans is separating what Heyward is from their expectations of him. He’s still young enough to inspire wild dreams and Hall of Fame numbers, but the reality is somewhere closer to Earth.
In two years, Heyward becomes a free agent. At that point, he becomes the problem of another fan base. A fresh set of eyes looking to the tall outfielder to take over their franchise and lead them to the promised land. Heyward can only do what he does - make his team better every time he steps onto the field.