AL Central Primer: Indians, Tigers closing gap on Royals
The defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals headline an AL Central division that improved across the board this offseason. While Kansas City has an opportunity to return to the World Series for a third consecutive season, the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, and Chicago White Sox all made upgrades in areas of need, and figure to make this year's race decidedly more competitive than last season.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Detroit Tigers
2015 record: 74-87
2016 payroll: $191.3M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 85 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 20-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Miguel Cabrera (4.1)
X-factor: Justin Verlander
Prospect to watch: Michael Fulmer (MLB.com: #53; Baseball America: #47; Baseball Prospectus: #87)
Winter report card: A-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 33.1 | 3.79 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 32.1 | 3.86 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 29.8 | 3.82 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 32.2 | 4.66 |
| Shane Greene | 27.4 | 4.37 |
Tigers win the division if ...
The Tigers may have the best one-through-five lineup in baseball when healthy, but the role players and pitching staff are keys to Detroit's success. Verlander and Anibal Sanchez must prove they can pitch like they used to, while the revamped bullpen must close the door and improve upon an ERA of 4.38. If Nick Castellanos, James McCann, and Jose Iglesias provide the club with value, and their pitching doesn't let them down, the Tigers should be contenders.
Prediction: 1st in AL Central (90-72)
Kansas City Royals
2015 record: 95-67
2016 payroll: $129.4M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 14-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Alex Gordon (3.8)
X-factor: Yordano Ventura
Prospect to watch: Raul A. Mondesi (MLB.com: #37; BA: #29; BP: #16)
Winter report card: B
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Edinson Volquez | 32.7 | 4.27 |
| Yordano Ventura | 24.8 | 3.52 |
| Ian Kennedy | 31.3 | 3.87 |
| Chris Young | 36.8 | 4.42 |
| Kris Medlen | 30.5 | 3.98 |
Royals win the division if ...
As legendary wrestler Ric Flair once said, "To be the man, you've got to beat the man." In this case, the defending World Series champs are everyone's target. The Royals lost Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist to free agency, but the club remains balanced. Kansas City still possesses a top bullpen, but how will the rotation hold up with a front three of Ventura, Edinson Volquez, and Ian Kennedy? This trio could be the difference between a trip to the postseason or an early offseason.
Prediction: 2nd in AL Central (88-74)
Cleveland Indians
2015 record: 81-80
2016 payroll: $88.9M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 84 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 20-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Francisco Lindor (3.7)
X-factor: Michael Brantley
Prospect to watch: Bradley Zimmer (MLB.com: #26; BA: #31; BP: #23) Winter report card: B
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 30.0 | 3.06 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 29.0 | 3.06 |
| Danny Salazar | 26.2 | 3.42 |
| Trevor Bauer | 25.2 | 4.15 |
| Josh Tomlin | 31.4 | 3.79 |
Indians win the division if ...
Cleveland's rotation headlined by Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar can go toe to toe with any in the division, but the team's offense is a question mark. The club tried to address its need for power by acquiring Mike Napoli and Marlon Byrd, while adding speedy Rajai Davis, but is that enough? If Brantley stays healthy, Lindor continues to rise, and the Indians score, they'll have a shot at their first division title since 2007.
Prediction: 3rd in AL Central (84-78)
Chicago White Sox
2015 record: 76-86
2016 payroll: $109.8M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 80.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 40-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Todd Frazier (3.6)
X-factor: Avisail Garcia
Prospect to watch: Tim Anderson (MLB.com: #47; Baseball America: #45; Baseball Prospectus: #19)
Winter report card: B-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 27.0 | 2.79 |
| Jose Quintana | 27.2 | 3.67 |
| Carlos Rodon | 23.3 | 4.10 |
| John Danks | 30.9 | 4.66 |
| Mat Latos | 28.3 | 4.34 |
White Sox win the division if ...
Following a fourth-place finish and falling 10 games under .500, the White Sox added several pieces in a bit to contend now. Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and Jimmy Rollins gives them more punch, but the White Sox will only go as far as their pitching and team chemistry takes them. The Adam LaRoche fiasco wasn't a good start, but if the South Siders can find consistency this season, they have a shot.
Prediction: 4th in AL Central (81-81)
Minnesota Twins
2015 record: 83-79
2016 payroll: $98.7M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 77.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 40-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Miguel Sano (3.3)
X-factor: Byung-ho Park
Prospect to watch: Byron Buxton (MLB.com: #2; BA: #2; BP: #2)
Winter report card: B-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | 33.3 | 4.37 |
| Kyle Gibson | 28.4 | 4.17 |
| Phil Hughes | 29.8 | 4.25 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 33.3 | 4.38 |
| Tommy Milone | 29.1 | 4.14 |
The Twins were a big surprise in the AL Central last season, finishing a distant second behind the Royals and falling just short of a wild-card spot despite being a team without superstars. Not much has changed since last season in the North Star State, but the Twinkies hope the addition of Korean slugger Byung-ho Park and a full season of Miguel Sano are enough to push them past their division rivals. If the Twins can get major production from the towering pair, they may have enough to surprise once again.
Prediction: 5th in AL Central (78-84)