NL West Primer: Wild offseason sets up compelling race
It's never a quiet winter in the NL West. This winter saw yet another team have a wild offseason that left question marks, a star's surprise defection to a division rival, and last year's offseason champion continue to frantically try and reverse course. With plenty of heated rivalries in this division, the 2016 NL West schedule will be a heated affair - and it should give baseball fans one of the better pennant races of the year.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
San Francisco Giants
2015 record: 84-78
2016 payroll: $165,694,443 (Cot's Contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 90 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 12:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Buster Posey (5.4)
X-factor: Jeff Samardzija
Prospect to watch: Christian Arroyo (MLB.com: #82; Baseball America: #62; Baseball Prospectus: NR)
Winter report card: A
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Bumgarner | 26.6 | 2.74 |
| Johnny Cueto | 30.1 | 3.09 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 31.2 | 3.38 |
| Jake Peavy | 34.8 | 3.61 |
| Chris Heston | 28.0 | 3.55 |
Giants win the division if ...
The ship runs smoothly. San Francisco had a nice winter that was headlined by the signings of Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, while late free-agent pickup Denard Span is a nice fit to man AT&T Park's spacious center field. There are few holes to be found here, and the Giants should spend this even year battling for a division title. Barring a major problem, this team will be playing in October - and they have what it takes to come out on top of the West, in what should be a dogfight to the finish.
Prediction: 1st in NL West (90-72)
Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 record: 92-70
2016 payroll: $243,071,668 (Cot's Contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 10:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Clayton Kershaw (7.2)
X-factor: Yasiel Puig
Prospect to watch: Corey Seager (MLB.com: #1; BA: #1; BP: #1)
Winter report card: B
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 28.0 | 2.09 |
| Scott Kazmir | 32.2 | 3.53 |
| Kenta Maeda | 28.0 | 3.52 |
| Alex Wood | 25.2 | 3.70 |
| Zach Lee | 24.5 | 3.99 |
Dodgers win the division if ...
Health and pitching hold up. Kershaw will do what he always does, but he now has to carry this rotation without Zack Greinke. Seager looks ready to break out at shortstop, but he's dealt with injuries this spring. Andre Ethier's also hurt, and that will weaken the club's outfield early on. There's also the question of whether Puig can bounce back. But this is still the Dodgers: They're rich, own a top-five system, and employ Kershaw. They can still win the division, but it'll take more of a fight this time.
Prediction: 2nd in NL West (89-73)
Arizona Diamondbacks
2015 record: 79-83
2016 payroll: $90,975,000 (Cot's Contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 84.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 25:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Paul Goldschmidt (5.3)
X-factor: Tyler Clippard
Prospect to watch: Braden Shipley (MLB.com: #67; BA: #77; BP: #38)
Winter report card: A
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 32.6 | 3.04 |
| Patrick Corbin | 28.3 | 3.46 |
| Shelby Miller | 24.6 | 4.03 |
| Rubby De La Rosa | 27.5 | 4.12 |
| Robbie Ray | 23.5 | 3.87 |
Diamondbacks win the division if ...
Everything goes right. This is a talented team with an underrated MVP candidate that improved over the offseason, especially in the rotation - but that's on paper. The additions of Greinke and Miller undoubtedly help, but there's still flaws on this roster, and a depleted farm system to boot. The D-Backs took a big risk going all-in this winter, and are now expecting to win big. They're capable of doing that - but if they become the latest offseason-champion-turned-dumpster-fire team, there'll be some trouble in the desert.
Prediction: 3rd in NL West (87-75)
Colorado Rockies
2015 record: 68-94
2016 payroll: $102,853,571 (Cot's Contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 68.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 300:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Nolan Arenado (4.4)
X-factor: Jon Gray
Prospect to watch: Jon Gray (MLB.com: #33; BA: #37; BP: #33)
Winter report card: C+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge De La Rosa | 35.0 | 4.43 |
| Chad Bettis | 26.9 | 4.42 |
| Jordan Lyles | 25.4 | 4.53 |
| Jon Gray | 24.4 | 4.26 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 26.3 | 4.06 |
Rockies win the division if ...
They have access to a DeLorean time machine. With Troy Tulowitzki gone, Colorado is turning over a new leaf, so to speak. The Rockies are now officially Arenado's team heading into another rebuilding year, though there's an excellent farm system starting to bear fruit. Pitching remains an issue - when it is not in Denver - but there's good young arms on the way. In 2016, the Rockies are still stuck near the bottom, but there's some potential for good things down the road.
Prediction: 4th in NL West (71-91)
San Diego Padres
2015 record: 74-88
2016 payroll: $91,650,000 (Cot's Contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 74 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 300:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Tyson Ross (3.7)
X-factor: Wil Myers
Prospect to watch: Manuel Margot (MLB.com: #45; BA: #56; BP: #14)
Winter report card: C-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Ross | 28.9 | 3.52 |
| James Shields | 34.3 | 3.77 |
| Andrew Cashner | 29.5 | 3.84 |
| Robbie Erlin | 25.5 | 4.00 |
| Colin Rea | 25.7 | 4.34 |
Padres win the division if ...
The other four NL West teams have to forfeit. This may literally be their only path, as the Padres have found themselves in a terrible mess after A.J. Preller's 2015 shopping spree went up in flames. They got a good return for Craig Kimbrel, but they're still stuck with several bad contracts, and most of their better young players aren't ready yet. In the uber-competitive NL West, the Padres are already sunk for this year - and possibly even longer.
Prediction: 5th in NL West (70-92)