AL East Primer: Booming Blue Jays battle revamped rivals
Parity is the name of the game in 2016, and the American League East is no exception. Although the Blue Jays are set to bring back that fearsome lineup from their magical 2015 season, revamped rosters in Boston and New York could derail Toronto's quest for a second straight division title. With all due respect to the NL Central, even with the Orioles and Rays not expected to do much, this could be the year the AL East restores its reputation as the best division in baseball.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Toronto Blue Jays
2015 record: 93-69
2016 payroll: $131.9M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 14:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Josh Donaldson (6.1)
X-factor: Aaron Sanchez
Prospect to watch: Conner Greene (MLB.com: NR; Baseball America: NR; Baseball Prospectus: #100)
Winter report card: C
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 24.9 | 3.63 |
| Marco Estrada | 32.7 | 4.40 |
| J.A Happ | 33.4 | 3.88 |
| R.A. Dickey | 41.4 | 4.21 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 23.7 | 4.44 |
Blue Jays win the division if ...
Their rotation isn't atrociously bad. With that video-game offense - anchored by Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Troy Tulowitzki - the Blue Jays will lead the majors in runs scored for a second straight season unless a meteor wipes out Southern Ontario. Their bullpen is quietly awesome, too, and Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez bring upside to an otherwise perfectly adequate rotation, but this lineup is just bonkers. Russell Martin, the three-time All-Star who posted a 115 OPS+ last year, is set to hit eighth.
Prediction: 1st in AL East (92-70)
Boston Red Sox
2015 record: 78-84
2016 payroll: $195.6M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 85.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 12:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: David Price (4.9)
X-factor: Rick Porcello
Prospect to watch: Andrew Benintendi (MLB.com: #25; BA: #15; BP: #46)
Winter report card: A
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| David Price | 30.6 | 2.99 |
| Clay Buchholz | 31.6 | 3.67 |
| Rick Porcello | 27.2 | 3.85 |
| Joe Kelly | 27.8 | 4.06 |
| Steven Wright | 31.6 | 4.55 |
Red Sox win the division if ...
Their rotation exceeds expectations. Even if Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval don't bounce back, the Red Sox are still going to score plenty of runs on David Ortiz's farewell tour, and boast a revamped bullpen that now features two of the top six relievers of the last half-decade. Still, even with Price on the payroll, it's hard to have much faith in Boston's starting corps: Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, and Porcello own a combined 4.40 ERA and 1.33 WHIP since 2014, and Eduardo Rodriguez will open the season on the DL.
Prediction: 2nd in AL East (88-74)
New York Yankees
2015 record: 87-75
2016 payroll: $221.6M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 85 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 16:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Masahiro Tanaka (4.0)
X-factor: Luis Severino
Prospect to watch: Aaron Judge (MLB.com: #31; BA: #76; BP: #18)
Winter report card: B+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Masahiro Tanaka | 27.4 | 3.36 |
| Luis Severino | 22.1 | 3.82 |
| Michael Pineda | 27.2 | 3.36 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 26.1 | 3.92 |
| CC Sabathia | 35.7 | 4.10 |
Yankees win the division if ...
Their old guys defy the aging curve for one more summer, their young starters remain healthy and effective, and both the Red Sox and Blue Jays crumble. Nobody doubts the Yankees will field a historically excellent bullpen in 2016, even with Aroldis Chapman missing the first 30 games, but can Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran approximate the 130 wRC+ they averaged in 2015? Will Tanaka's elbow make it through another season? Can 22-year-old Luis Severino outperform his peripherals like he did for 11 starts last year? Frankly, that's a lot to hope for.
Prediction: 3rd in AL East (85-77)
Tampa Bay Rays
2015 record: 80-82
2016 payroll: $59.8M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 78 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 40:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Kevin Kiermaier/Chris Archer (4.1)
X-factor: Curt Casali
Prospect to watch: Blake Snell (MLB.com: #14 NR; BA: #12 NR; BP: #21)
Winter report card: C
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Archer | 27.5 | 3.21 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 26.0 | 3.62 |
| Drew Smyly | 26.8 | 3.28 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 25.9 | 3.96 |
| Matt Moore | 26.8 | 3.74 |
Rays win the division if ...
They somehow replace the position players on their 25-man roster with much better position players. Run prevention shouldn't be an issue in Tampa this year - Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb (eventually), and Kiermaier will make sure of that - but the Rays didn't do enough this winter to improve a lineup that finished second last in the AL in runs scored and fifth last in OPS last year.
Prediction: 4th in AL East (79-83)
Baltimore Orioles
2015 record: 81-81
2016 payroll: $145M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 80.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 60:1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Manny Machado (6.2)
X-factor: Chris Davis
Prospect to watch: Dylan Bundy (MLB.com: NR; BA: NR; BP: NR)
Winter report card: B-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | 27.9 | 4.34 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 30.1 | 4.48 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 32.2 | 4.24 |
| Kevin Gausman | 25.2 | 3.88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 31.8 | 4.52 |
Orioles win the division if ...
The other four teams fold? Despite spending a bunch of money this winter, the Orioles' roster hasn't changed much since last year, when they received MVP-caliber seasons from Machado and Davis and still didn't finish above .500. Not only is it reasonable to expect regression from both those players - they only missed two games combined - but Matt Wieters' elbow is already giving him issues, their "revamped" outfield is shaky, and their rotation has major question marks.
Prediction: 5th in AL East (76-86)