Stockton slap: 3 reasons Diaz will beat McGregor, again

By now, just about every MMA fan knows about UFC 202's headlining rematch between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor.

While many are predicting an outcome similar to the first Diaz-McGregor fight at UFC 196, which Diaz won by second-round submission, the second go-around features an entirely different set of circumstances.

For one, Diaz, who took the first fight on short notice, will now reap the benefits of a full training camp, while McGregor is reportedly tailoring his camp to an opponent for the first time.

These new parameters may make for a more contested rematch, but McGregor will fall again to any one, or all three, of these insurmountable obstacles:

Bigger? Yes. Stronger? Meh.

As much as he'd like to avenge the loss, McGregor's adjustments can't stifle the effects of moving up two weight classes.

To be fair, McGregor isn't "moving up" so much as just not cutting weight, although that didn't stop him from waning as the first fight progressed. He may have been the aggressor, but his movement and use of angles did little of consequence against the bigger Diaz, who consistently worked the jab to take the zip out of his punches.

Putting Diaz away is a tall order for even a natural welterweight, but that didn't deter the undersized McGregor from swinging for a knockout. Add the loaded swings to a couple dozen stiff jabs to the face and you get a prematurely empty gas tank.

Given McGregor's tendency to keep the fight standing, there's no reason to expect the rematch won't mirror the first bout. Even if he paces himself to take the fight into the later rounds, Diaz's cardio and chin are both top-notch.

Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu

If McGregor has a kink in his game, it's his grappling.

Chad Mendes, a natural featherweight and thus much smaller than Diaz, revealed as much despite falling to the Irishman at UFC 189. Mendes took McGregor down at will, until a botched submission attempt brought the fight back to the feet, where the discrepancy in reach sealed his fate.

Should Diaz, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, take the fight to the ground, he'll be able to keep McGregor there, and he won't fail to lock in a submission should the opportunity arise. Long story short, McGregor, whose three career losses have all come by submission, will tap again. It just might take a little longer this time.

Diaz has more to lose

Once he loses, the McGregor media machine will afford him a silver lining in that his stock will have only been temporarily damaged. He'll still hold the featherweight belt, so his worst case scenario would be to move back down to 145 pounds - where he belongs - and defend the title. Pretty cushy.

Diaz doesn't have that luxury. Should he lose, it'll be some time before he can headline another pay-per-view since both the welterweight and lightweight divisions boast a logjam of contenders.

To make matters worse, whatever fights he books in the interim won't be nearly as lucrative as either bout with McGregor, which is doubtful to sit well with someone who's called out the UFC over fighters' pay in the past.

High stakes and main event money are great motivators, and Diaz won't botch his chance at making consistent, substantial coin.

Related: Return of The Mac: 3 reasons McGregor will win the Diaz rematch