UFC 223 predictions: Nurmagomedov looks to keep Holloway from 2nd crown

Prior to Saturday's UFC 223 in Brooklyn, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis makes his picks for the evening's noteworthy bouts.

Main Card

Lightweight Championship

Max Holloway (15-3 UFC, 19-3)
vs.
Khabib Nurmagomedov (9-0 UFC, 25-0)

Commendable as his efforts to salvage the main event might be, Holloway's initiative won't produce a miracle after the cage door shuts.

Between the six days' notice and the ankle injury that kept him from facing Frankie Edgar two months ago, it's safe to assume the featherweight champ won't be fighting Nurmagomedov at the peak of his own powers. Yes, Holloway's takedown defense has held up over his gaudy 12-fight win streak, but if Nurmagomedov has proven anything over his unblemished UFC run, it's this: If he wants to bring you to the mat, sooner or later, he will.

The lightweight crown goes to Dagestan via takedowns and ground-and-pound.

THE PICK: Nurmagomedov

Strawweight Championship

Rose Namajunas (5-2 UFC, 7-3)
vs.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-1 UFC, 14-1)

Jedrzejczyk enters the rematch as the slight betting favorite, but does Namajunas have her number?

Chalk up the stunning upset Namajunas scored at her expense to a harrowing weight cut if you will, but Jedrzejczyk was punishing nothing but air until she ate the left hook that brutally ended her reign in November. Jedrzejczyk appears to have resolved her weight management issues and claims to have made adjustments ahead of the rematch, but there's little else to suggest the second tilt will play out differently than the first. Namajunas will just follow the knockdown with a submission this time.

THE PICK: Namajunas

Featherweight

Renato Moicano (3-1 UFC, 11-1-1)
vs.
Calvin Kattar (2-0 UFC, 18-2)

Kattar's sound fundamentals will lead him to victory yet again.

"The Boston Finisher" set up his late TKO of Shane Burgos at UFC 220 with a crisp, active jab, and he'll need to keep it in Moicano's face incessantly Saturday, as the Brazilian has both worked from the outside and slung leather from the pocket over his quartet of UFC bouts. Unless Moicano can get him to the mat and angle for a submission, though, look for Kattar to subject him to death by a thousand cuts for a win on points.

THE PICK: Kattar

Lightweight

Michael Chiesa (7-3 UFC, 14-3)
vs.
Anthony Pettis (7-6 UFC, 20-7)

Anthony Pettis' chance at a resurgence grows slimmer with every fight.

Washed, he is not, but the stand-up stylings and triangle chokes that once wowed casuals and diehards alike haven't been enough to reverse Pettis' fortunes since he lost the lightweight crown in 2015. The 31-year-old can finesse Chiesa if the fight stays upright, but he'll be scrambling incessantly should his lanky foe make it a jiu-jitsu match. Recent tape suggests the latter will transpire, meaning Chiesa gets Pettis to the mat and outgrapples him.

THE PICK: Chiesa

Lightweight

Al Iaquinta (8-2 UFC, 13-3-1)
vs.
Paul Felder (7-3 UFC, 15-3)

In a clash of bangers that could steal the show, the more diverse technician will get his hand raised.

Iaquinta has cracked the lightweight top 15 thanks to his lethal right hand, while Felder's arsenal runs the gamut from spinning techniques to step-in elbows. The 32-year-old Felder might have to eat a few zingers for his trouble, but expect him to treat Iaquinta to a variety of looks - including a few well-timed intercepting elbows - en route to either a late TKO or a hard-fought decision.

THE PICK: Felder

Preliminaries

Strawweight

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (4-2 UFC, 11-2)
vs.
Felice Herrig (5-1 UFC, 14-6)

If Herrig wants to make it five in a row, she'll have to get Kowalkiewicz to the canvas at the first opportunity.

The 33-year-old has resorted to her kickboxing roots in wins over Cortney Casey and Alexa Grasso, but Kowalkiewicz is capable of overwhelming her with a hard-nosed, high-volume attack on the feet. On the mat, Herrig boasts a sizable advantage. If she can bring the action there, it's not a matter of if, but when she'll take Kowalkiewicz's back and secure a tapout via rear-naked choke.

THE PICK: Herrig

Flyweight

Ray Borg (5-3 UFC, 11-3)
vs.
Brandon Moreno (3-1 UFC, 14-4)

How to pick a victor in a fight featuring two flyweights with nearly identical skill sets?

Both Borg and Moreno can scramble with the best of them and finish on the ground, but all fights start on the feet, where the latter's more dynamic attack should give him the edge. In what could prove a replay of Moreno's April tilt with Dustin Ortiz, expect the 24-year-old to exploit his edge in the striking department, put Borg on skates, then finish him with a submission.

THE PICK: Moreno

Lightweight

Joe Lauzon (14-11 UFC, 27-14)
vs.
Chris Gruetzemacher (1-2 UFC, 13-3)

Gruetzemacher can take an absurd amount of punishment, and he'll be in for a world of it on fight night.

Lauzon's odometer may bear a mile or six too many, but he should be salivating at his date with Gruetzemacher, who's dropped two of three in the Octagon by submission. Expect the streaky yet dangerous Lauzon to waste no time getting Gruetzemacher to the mat and softening him up with ground-and-pound to set up one of his patented tapouts for a much-needed W.

THE PICK: Lauzon