UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen odds, best bet

UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday at Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. It will feature a bantamweight bout between Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen.

Here's a top play for the event:

Marlon Moraes (+100) vs. Cory Sandhagen

This line is baffling to me, and I'm going to jump all over this tremendous opportunity.

Moraes opened as a -135 favorite but the line has flipped with the public apparently liking Sandhagen in this spot. There's no doubt this is a competitive fight - it's not impossible for Sandhagen to win - but Moraes should absolutely be the favorite. So, there's a ton of value on him at plus money.

The former UFC title challenger has beaten the who's who of the 135-pound division, from Aljamain Sterling and Raphael Assuncao to Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson. It's not just who Moraes beats, it's how he beats them. Of those four victories, only one went the distance. "Magic" knocked out Sterling and Rivera in brutal fashion and submitted Assuncao.

Moraes is typically a stand-up fighter. The Brazilian has massive power for the bantamweight class but he's also very technical, which makes for a deadly combination. Though we don't always see it, Moraes also has a slick jiu-jitsu game. His ability to thrive in every facet of mixed martial arts has allowed him to become the No. 1 bantamweight in the UFC.

Sandhagen is a unique challenge for many fighters; he's lanky and has an awkward style, similar to former champion Dominick Cruz. But he showed in his last fight against Sterling - which he lost via first-round submission - that he's beatable despite his early success in the Octagon.

Sandhagen's best shot to win will be in the later rounds. Moraes - who's coming off a razor-thin win over Jose Aldo - slowed down in his 2019 title bout against Henry Cejudo, and he could easily do the same against Sandhagen. But at the same time, that may only allow Sandhagen to win the last two rounds, which wouldn't be enough to win the fight.

Ultimately, I'm more confident in Moraes' paths to victory, opposed to banking on Sandhagen to pick his opponent apart for 25 minutes without getting caught. Expect Moraes to get into Sandhagen's range and do more damage on the feet, either leading to a decision win or a knockout.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC Fight Night on Oct. 10:

Main card

• Cory Sandhagen (-130) vs. Marlon Moraes (+100)
• Edson Barboza (-260) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+210)
• Ben Rothwell (-160) vs. Marcin Tybura (+130)
• Dricus Du Plessis (-155) vs. Markus Perez (+125)
• Tom Aspinall (-525) vs. Alan Baudot (+375)
• Youssef Zalal (-200) vs. Ilia Topuria (+165)

Preliminary card

• Tom Breese (-260) vs. KB Bhullar (+210)
• Rodrigo Nascimento (-270) vs. Chris Daukaus (+220)
• Impa Kasanganay (-250) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+200)
• Tony Kelley (-210) vs. Ali Al-Qaisi (+170)
• Omar Morales (-145) vs. Giga Chikadze (+115)
• Tracy Cortez (-200) vs. Stephanie Egger (+165)
• Tagir Ulanbekov (-400) vs. Bruno Silva (+300)