UFC 256 best bets: Back Souza to win middleweight return

UFC 256 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event features a flyweight title fight between champion Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno.

Figueiredo is a big favorite for his title defense, currently sitting at -335 on theScore Bet. Though I'm picking the 32-year-old to retain his championship for the second time in three weeks, there isn't enough value at that price. I'd stay away.

With that, here are the two best bets for the pay-per-view card.

Ronaldo Souza (-110) vs. Kevin Holland

I understand the hesitancy in favoring Souza - he's 41 years old, on a losing streak, and his opponent is hot. But frankly, the longtime 185-pound contender is being wildly underestimated in this spot.

"Jacare" has lost to Yoel Romero, Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum, Jack Hermansson, and Jan Blachowicz since 2015. That is steep competition and includes the current light heavyweight champion and former middleweight champ. Holland's skill level and accomplishments don't compare.

The last time Holland faced a grappler, Brendan Allen choked him out in October 2019. Holland is up-and-coming and will be looking to improve his 2020 record to 5-0, so all eyes are on him. But Souza is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC.

My only concern is Souza might get too comfortable on the feet with Holland, who's a lanky striker and could put the veteran out with the right shot. But as long as Souza recognizes where the biggest skill discrepancy is and takes the fight to the mat, I'm confident he'll get back into the win column in his return to the middleweight division.

Cub Swanson (+140) vs. Daniel Pineda

Swanson is returning from a 14-month layoff due to a severe knee injury, but I like the veteran featherweight to extend his winning streak to two against Pineda.

Pineda is favored seemingly because he's riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak and is coming off an impressive TKO win over Herbert Burns in his UFC debut earlier in 2020. But Swanson is more proven, even though he's likely past his prime.

The former top contender showed he still has some gas left in the tank when he dominated Kron Gracie in October 2019. And before that, he took rising featherweight Shane Burgos to a hard-fought split decision.

This will be a gritty fight, but I think Swanson will be able to get the best of his opponent on the feet. Pineda's best shot at winning will come on the ground, but Swanson's defense should hold up. The 37-year-old will be the busier fighter, and if he can pick his shots, he'll edge out a decision victory.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 256 on Dec. 12:

Main card

• Deiveson Figueiredo (-335) vs. Brandon Moreno (+285)
• Tony Ferguson (-175) vs. Charles Oliveira (+145)
• Mackenzie Dern (-210) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+170)
• Kevin Holland (-120) vs. Ronaldo Souza (-110)
• Ciryl Gane (-425) vs. Junior dos Santos (+325)

Preliminary card

• Daniel Pineda (-170) vs. Cub Swanson (+140)
• Rafael Fiziev (-160) vs. Renato Moicano (+130)
• Billy Quarantillo (-175) vs. Gavin Tucker (+145)
• Tecia Torres (TBD) vs. Sam Hughes (TBD)

Early preliminary card

• Chase Hooper (-400) vs. Peter Barrett (+300)