UFC 258 best bets: Usman, Burns in for the long haul

UFC 258 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event features a welterweight title bout between champion Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns.

Here are the two best bets for the pay-per-view card.

Usman-Burns over 4.5 rounds (-150)

Rather than picking a side in what's expected to be a fairly competitive contest, I'm targeting the over. The price isn't too steep, and Usman-Burns has all the makings of a fight that at least reaches the fifth round but more likely goes the distance.

Both fighters have won their last six bouts, but only one of Usman's and two of Burns' have ended in finishes. Usman, in particular, has a lot of experience going five rounds.

Usman's wrestling and Burns' grappling will neutralize each other, making for a largely stand-up fight. The two welterweights are close in skill on the feet, so a knockout seems unlikely. Usman has never been knocked out (his only loss is a submission in his second professional bout), and Burns has only been stopped on the feet once.

Burns packs a punch, so if he can't establish a dominant position on the mat, a flash knockout might be his best path to victory. That said, Usman will have a 6.5-inch reach advantage, and he uses his jab well as defense. Even if "Durinho" manages to outpoint Usman in the striking department, it seems unlikely he'll land a fight-ending blow.

Kelvin Gastelum (-230) / Rodolfo Vieira (-425)

$100 parlay to net $77.24

The first leg of the parlay sees former interim middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum face Ian Heinisch in a pivotal main-card bout.

Gastelum is underappreciated in this spot because he's riding a three-fight skid. But the 29-year-old has lost to top competition, including current champion Israel Adesanya in the 2019 "Fight of the Year." Heinisch represents a significant step down in competition.

Gastelum, who holds notable wins over Ronaldo Souza and Michael Bisping, should have no problem outpointing Heinisch over the course of a three-round striking battle. Heinisch is 3-2 in the Octagon and has only fought someone of Gastelum's caliber once in a losing effort against Derek Brunson in 2019.

The other side of the parlay sees Rodolfo Vieira take on Anthony Hernandez as a huge betting favorite. It doesn't make sense to take Vieira straight at -425, but he can add some value to a parlay.

Vieira is one of the most accomplished grapplers in the UFC: He's a four-time IBJJF world champion and a former ADCC champion. Since crossing over to MMA, he's 7-0 as a professional and 2-0 in the UFC. He dominated both of his opponents in the Octagon, submitting one in the second round and the other in the first.

Hernandez appears to be a solid up-and-comer, but he won't be a match for the jiu-jitsu ace. The 27-year-old is 1-2 in the promotion and lost to Markus Perez by submission in his 2019 debut. Anything other than a Vieira submission in this contest will be a stunning result.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 258 on Feb. 13:

Main card

Kamaru Usman (-280) vs. Gilbert Burns (+230)
Alexa Grasso (-135) vs. Maycee Barber (+105)
Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs. Ian Heinisch (+185)
Julian Marquez (-185) vs. Maki Pitolo (+155)
Bobby Green (-275) vs. Jim Miller (+225)

Preliminary card

Rodolfo Vieira (-425) vs. Anthony Hernandez (+325)
Belal Muhammad (-425) vs. Dhiego Lima (+325)
Mallory Martin (-150) vs. Polyana Viana (+120)
Chris Gutierrez (TBD) vs. Andre Ewell (TBD)

Early preliminary card

Ricky Simon (-260) vs. Brian Kelleher (+210)
Gabriel Green (-135) vs. Philip Rowe (+105)
Miranda Maverick (-150) vs. Gillian Robertson (+120)