UFC 260 predictions: Will Miocic make it 2-0 vs. Ngannou?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 260 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.

Heavyweight championship

Stipe Miocic (20-3)
vs.
Francis Ngannou (15-3)

Miocic, the greatest UFC heavyweight of all time, and Ngannou, the most feared knockout artist in the sport, will run it back to decide who's the baddest man on the planet.

This rematch is razor close on paper, but it's unlikely to play out that way when the two fighters step inside the Octagon. The two most probable outcomes are Miocic grinding out Ngannou in a repeat of history or Ngannou landing a signature bomb and finishing Miocic early in the fight. But determining which will happen is almost impossible.

Miocic is the more skilled fighter, but Ngannou can change the trajectory of any fight in the blink of an eye. It's tough to pick against someone whose power is such a factor, but it's also tough to pick against Miocic, seeing how easily he controlled Ngannou when they met the first time at UFC 220 in January 2018.

We also don't know how much Ngannou has improved since the first fight. He started training at Las Vegas' Xtreme Couture on a full-time basis in 2019, and his coaches are adamant his conditioning and takedown defense are much better than three years ago. But we haven't seen any evidence of that because Ngannou's last four fights lasted a combined 2:42. His opponents haven't given him a chance to show off the new wrinkles in his game.

In the end, I have to go with the more proven fighter in Miocic. He exploited Ngannou's weaknesses last time, and it's tough to watch that bout and think a rematch isn't Miocic's to lose. Ngannou might be able to keep the fight on the feet for longer durations this time, but I see Miocic taking him down and controlling him in the clinch just enough, especially down the stretch as the challenger starts to tire.

This isn't me claiming that Ngannou hasn't improved - how could he not have gotten better in the past three years, especially at a new gym and with new coaches by his side? However, I have to make my pick off of what I've seen, and I haven't seen Ngannou comfortably go five - or even three - rounds while defending takedowns. Miocic has one of the highest fight IQs in the sport and gets stronger as his fights progress. As long as he makes it out of the first two rounds unscathed, expect the champ to keep his title.

The pick: Miocic, unanimous decision

Welterweight bout

Tyron Woodley (19-6-1)
vs.
Vicente Luque (19-7-1)

Woodley, a former welterweight champion who's lost three fights in a row, is on a mission to secure his first win since September 2018. But that won't be easy to do against Luque.

Woodley hasn't looked the same since losing his title to Kamaru Usman in lopsided fashion in 2019. Since then, the 38-year-old has been dominated by Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington in back-to-back uninspiring performances, leading UFC president Dana White to say after the Covington fight in September that Woodley should start thinking about retirement.

At this point, there's no reason to believe the old Woodley will ever show up again. It's not impossible, but he's only getting older, so it's improbable. Woodley was hesitant to engage against Burns and Covington, and I expect to see a similar performance against Luque, a hungry up-and-comer in the 170-pound division.

Luque, 29, has won eight of his last nine fights, and his only losses since 2015 came against top contenders Stephen Thompson and Leon Edwards. He's one of the most devastating strikers in the division, and he's willing to take a punch to land two. He also has a few submissions under his belt, but this fight will likely be a stand-up affair.

Expect Luque to be the busier man on the feet and to put pressure on Woodley over the course of three rounds. Woodley's defense is still solid, so I don't think he'll get finished, but Luque should win this one pretty handily.

The pick: Luque, unanimous decision

Bantamweight bout

Sean O'Malley (12-1)
vs.
Thomas Almeida (22-4)

O'Malley will look to get back on track against Almeida after suffering his first career loss in August.

This feels like a bit of a layup fight for the rising bantamweight prospect. Stylistically, it's a great matchup for him since Almeida has a predictable style and is hittable. O'Malley should be able to use his length to tag him with counter shots.

Almeida was once considered a future contender, but he's 1-4 in his past five fights. In October, he competed for the first time since early 2018 and lost to Jonathan Martinez. He didn't show nearly as much promise as he did before, and this might even be a step up in competition from Martinez - that's not good news for Almeida.

As long as O'Malley's leg doesn't cause him any issues like against Marlon Vera and in an earlier UFC bout, he should cruise to a stoppage victory against Almeida.

The pick: O'Malley, second-round TKO