UFC 261 predictions: Will history repeat itself in main event?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 261 in Jacksonville, Florida, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Welterweight championship

Kamaru Usman (18-1)
vs.
Jorge Masvidal (35-14)

It'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements Usman and Masvidal can make after spending 25 minutes in the Octagon together last summer.

Masvidal accepted that fight on six days' notice, and now he'll have a chance to avenge his decision loss to Usman after what was almost a full training camp. He'll also have his head coach, Mike Brown, in his corner; Brown tested positive for COVID-19 ahead of the first fight and couldn't corner Masvidal.

That said, it's fair to assume Usman will also have some new tricks up his sleeve in the rematch since he was getting ready for a different opponent before Masvidal stepped in at the last minute. And while "Gamebred" could absolutely land a knockout shot and put Usman away, it's tough to go against the reigning champion.

Usman is one of the smartest fighters in the sport, and he knew exactly how to beat Masvidal last year, even on short notice. He controlled Masvidal on the ground and up against the fence, and the challenger's offense was quite limited. I think we'll see a fairly similar outcome in the rematch. Masvidal will be in better shape this time for obvious reasons, but Usman is a terrible stylistic matchup for him, and that'll never change.

Usman's bread and butter is his wrestling, and that's what he'll use to get past Masvidal for the second time.

The pick: Usman, unanimous decision

Strawweight championship

Zhang Weili (21-1)
vs.
Rose Namajunas (9-4)

Zhang-Namajunas is easily the best fight on the card.

Their MMA records might tell a different story, but this is a very competitive matchup, and it should be full of action. Zhang is one of the strongest fighters in the weight class, and she can absolutely take a punch - just watch her last title defense against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in what was arguably the greatest women's MMA fight of all time. Namajunas, meanwhile, is a technician on the feet and superbly talented on the mat.

This bout could very well come down to who controls the pace. On the feet, Zhang does her best work inside the pocket, while Namajunas is more of a rangy striker. Zhang will likely have the edge on Namajunas if she can routinely get in close. But if the challenger can control distance, she might be able to pot shot her way to a victory and the belt.

An X factor in this contest is Namajunas' grappling. She doesn't always rely on that skill set in her fights, but there's no doubt she's one of the best submission artists in the 115-pound division. If she can implement a grappling-oriented game plan against Zhang, that's where she'd have the biggest advantage.

In the end, though, Zhang was super impressive against Jedrzejczyk, and she only seems to be getting better, even as the UFC strawweight champion. There's no doubt that Namajunas is talented and worthy of this title shot, but I think she'll fall just short of becoming a two-time champ.

The pick: Zhang, unanimous decision

Women's flyweight championship

Valentina Shevchenko (20-3)
vs.
Jessica Andrade (21-8)

This is definitely the most compelling flyweight matchup for Shevchenko, but I'm still confident her title reign will continue Saturday night.

Andrade is one of the most powerful fighters in the division and like a bulldozer. She's destroyed previous opponents - Katlyn Chookagian and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, for instance - like no one else before her. The former strawweight champ's power is a different kind of threat, one Shevchenko hasn't faced during her title reign.

But if we're being honest, it's still difficult to determine a viable path to victory for Andrade besides a flash knockout. Shevchenko has a height and reach advantage over her Brazilian foe, and she's a smart fighter. You can count on "Bullet" to stay at range, pick Andrade apart, and make sure she doesn't get too close where the challenger can do real damage.

Andrade has lost to fighters like Shevchenko before, namely Jedrzejczyk and Namajunas. This fight could look awfully similar to those matchups, but it might even end before the final horn.

The pick: Shevchenko, third-round TKO

Middleweight bout

Uriah Hall (16-9)
vs.
Chris Weidman (15-5)

Hall will look to get revenge against Weidman, a former UFC middleweight champion, after losing to him on the regional scene in 2010. And he'll be successful.

Hall and Weidman have very different styles. Hall is a flashy striker with devastating power, and Weidman has begun relying on his wrestling a bit more in the latest chapter of his career.

Weidman has a shot at winning if he can get Hall down and keep him there. But it's difficult to pick the former champ against a top middleweight in 2021. He's 2-5 in his past seven fights and far removed from his days as a championship-caliber fighter. He's suffered several knockout losses in recent years, and it seems like another one could be in store against Hall.

"Prime Time" has looked great recently, riding a three-fight winning streak and coming off a TKO victory over UFC legend Anderson Silva. He had a ton of potential coming into the UFC several years ago, but it feels like he's only now finally coming into his own as a contender.

If anything, this pick is a bit of a fade on Weidman. The 36-year-old defeated Omari Akhmedov in his last bout to end a two-fight skid, but that doesn't mean he can beat the top contenders at 185 pounds. Ultimately, Hall should be able to keep this fight on the feet and catch Weidman with something big.

The pick: Hall, second-round knockout

Light heavyweight bout

Anthony Smith (34-16)
vs.
Jimmy Crute (12-1)

Crute is on a mission to become a legitimate contender in the light heavyweight division, but he has to get past a former title challenger in Smith first.

This is a tough fight to call on paper because Smith has so much more MMA experience and has fought the better competition in the UFC. He's been in there with the likes of Jon Jones, Alexander Gustafsson, Glover Teixeira, Rashad Evans, and Mauricio Rua. On the other hand, Crute's best win is probably a submission over Michal Oleksiejczuk.

But I believe in Crute. The 25-year-old has shown a lot of promise through five UFC bouts, and at his age, there's no doubt he'll be in the mix for years to come. Smith suffered a pair of bad losses in 2020 before rebounding against Devin Clark, so you have to wonder if "Lionheart" will start slowing down sometime soon even though he's still considered a contender.

Smith's veteran savvy can make this fight interesting, but in the end, I expect this to be Crute's coming-out party. The Australian has a lot of power on the feet and a solid submission game to back it up. Expect him to overwhelm his opponent and score a finish midway through the contest.

The pick: Crute, second-round TKO