UFC 264 best bets: Take Poirier as slight favorite vs. McGregor

Saturday's UFC 264 card features a highly anticipated trilogy bout between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.

Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here's a look at the two best bets for the pay-per-view event.

Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor

After seeing Poirier finish McGregor less than six months ago, it's hard not to side with "The Diamond" to win the trilogy bout. And with Poirier nearly at even money, it's also hard not to bet on him.

McGregor has said he focused more on MMA training during this camp after getting sidetracked by a potential boxing match versus Manny Pacquiao ahead of the Poirier rematch. That could make a difference, and McGregor has successfully made adjustments to win a rematch (see the two Nate Diaz bouts from 2016).

While the former two-division champion might have a bit more success against Poirier this weekend than he did earlier in 2021, this is still Poirier's fight to lose. He's at the peak of his career, while McGregor has only been victorious once since 2016.

Poirier is such a high-level striker, and his varied arsenal on the feet should once again give McGregor problems. Additionally, Poirier appears to be more durable than his foe, which will allow him to eat the Irishman's biggest shots and keep coming.

As we all know by now, McGregor's best chance to upset Poirier is going to be in the first or second round. Poirier has better cardiovascular endurance and will be able to drag McGregor into deep waters if necessary. But last time, Poirier got McGregor out of there less than 10 minutes into the fight, and I expect a similar outcome in the rubber match.

Expect Poirier to mix in his crisp hands with low kicks - like in the rematch - before connecting clean on McGregor midway through the fight and taking him out a second time.

Greg Hardy (+115) vs. Tai Tuivasa

Yes, the odds are close, but I'm still a little surprised Hardy is the underdog against Tuivasa. That's probably because Hardy is coming off the first stoppage loss of his young MMA career, while Tuivasa has scored knockouts in back-to-back fights.

However, even though Tuivasa has the momentum, it seems pretty clear there's some value on Hardy at this price.

Before Hardy got taken down in the second round of his fight against Marcin Tybura last December, he was delivering one of his most composed performances to date. "The Prince of War's" improvements were evident as he looked sharp on the feet and less sloppy than in past outings.

His game is still very flawed, as he struggled to return to his feet after Tybura got him to the ground. But that's to be expected with a man who made his amateur debut less than four years ago. Tuivasa, on the other hand, is somewhat of a brawler, so this is a much different matchup stylistically than the Tybura fight. It's unlikely he'll go for takedowns against Hardy, which means Hardy will be able to shine on the feet and use his biggest strengths.

Tuivasa can catch Hardy with a big shot and put him away - crazy things happen in the heavyweight division - but I'd argue Hardy is the more technical striker of the two. As long as he can maintain distance against Tuivasa, he'll land the better shots en route to a decision victory. And Hardy might be able to land a power punch of his own and add to his list of stoppages.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 264 on July 10:

Main card

• Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor (-105)
• Stephen Thompson (-165) vs. Gilbert Burns (+135)
• Tai Tuivasa (-145) vs. Greg Hardy (+115)
• Irene Aldana (-125) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (-105)
• Sean O'Malley (-900) vs. Kris Moutinho (+575)

Preliminary card

• Max Griffin (-190) vs. Carlos Condit (+160)
• Michel Pereira (-165) vs. Niko Price (+135)
• Ilia Topuria (-245) vs. Ryan Hall (+195)
• Dricus Du Plessis (-120) vs. Trevin Giles (-110)

Early preliminary card

• Jennifer Maia (-200) vs. Jessica Eye (+165)
• Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+145)
• Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-345) vs. Jerome Rivera (+275)
• Alen Amedovski (-140) vs. Hu Yaozong (+110)