UFC 265 best bets: Back Luque in pivotal bout vs. Chiesa

Saturday's UFC 265 card features an interim heavyweight title bout between Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane.

Gane is a heavy favorite for his first UFC title opportunity, sitting at -360 on theScore Bet. While I'm leaning toward Gane to beat Lewis, he's seriously overvalued at that price. Lewis should never be a +280 underdog with his power. Plus, he has so much more MMA experience than the 9-0 Gane. This fight is 'dog or pass, so if you're looking to place a wager, Lewis by knockout at +390 is your best bet.

Before the action gets underway at Toyota Center in Houston, here's a look at the two best bets for the pay-per-view event.

Vicente Luque (-120) vs. Michael Chiesa

The pivotal bout between Luque and Chiesa is close on paper, but there's a good chance it won't be too competitive when the welterweight contenders are inside the Octagon.

Luque has more ways to win, so it's hard to pass up the relatively low price of -120.

For starters, "The Silent Assassin" has a significant edge over Chiesa in technique and power on the feet. Six of his last eight wins ended by TKO or knockout.

Chiesa's best path to victory will be on the ground. Coming off a controlling win over Neil Magny earlier in 2021, "Maverick" is a skilled wrestler who can hold some opponents down for 25 minutes. Whether he can do that against Luque is a different story.

Luque's grappling game and overall submission threat are quite underrated. He locked up a D'arce choke in his last bout against former champion Tyron Woodley, marking his biggest victory to date. Even if Chiesa takes him down, Luque should be able to scramble out from bottom position, and the Brazilian could even try sinking in a submission himself. Chiesa has been tapped out before, so it'll be vital he doesn't make a mistake during any ground sequences against a dangerous opponent like Luque.

Luque should be able to keep this one standing for the most part, though, and he'll prevail victorious in a big way. I expect him to rock Chiesa midway through the fight and finish him off with ground-and-pound.

Alonzo Menifield-Ed Herman under 1.5 rounds (-115)

It'll be a quick night at the office for either Menifield or Herman.

This light heavyweight clash is bound to end within the first seven-and-a-half minutes. Ten of Menifield's 12 professional fights have finished within that amount of time, and he has the knockout power to keep that streak alive.

If Menifield doesn't get his hand raised, Herman is the right fighter on the other side of the cage to make sure this prop bet cashes. The scrappy veteran's three-round fights typically end inside the distance more often than not. Herman can score knockouts, but his submission game will be the biggest threat against Menifield.

While Menifield is a sizable favorite to win Saturday's bout, this one is unlikely to last long no matter which way it goes.

Here are the full odds for UFC 265 on Aug. 7:

Main card

• Ciryl Gane (-360) vs. Derrick Lewis (+280)
• Jose Aldo (-120) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-110)
• Vicente Luque (-120) vs. Michael Chiesa (-110)
• Tecia Torres (-140) vs. Angela Hill (+110)
• Casey Kenney (-125) vs. Song Yadong (-105)

Preliminary card

• Rafael Fiziev (-280) vs. Bobby Green (+230)
• Drako Rodriguez (-120) vs. Vince Morales (-110)
• Alonzo Menifield (-245) vs. Ed Herman (+195)
• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) vs. Jessica Penne (+100)

Early preliminary card

• Manel Kape (-200) vs. Ode' Osbourne (+165)
• Miles Johns (-210) vs. Anderson dos Santos (+170)
• Victoria Leonardo (-120) vs. Melissa Gatto (-110)
• Johnny Munoz (-275) vs. Jamey Simmons (+225)