UFC 268 best bets: Namajunas a steal as underdog

Saturday's UFC 268 features a pair of title rematches, with Kamaru Usman defending the welterweight belt against Colby Covington and strawweight champion Rose Namajunas going up against Zhang Weili for the second time in 2021.

Usman is a sizable favorite against Covington to retain his title for the fifth time, sitting at -310 on theScore Bet. That's a little too expensive for a straight bet, but the champ is prime fodder for a parlay. Usman by decision (+165) is intriguing as well, but considering that his last two fights were stoppages and that Usman appears to be somewhat of a knockout artist these days, there's probably not enough value in that prop.

Before the action gets underway at Madison Square Garden, here's a look at the two best bets for the event.

Rose Namajunas (-110) vs. Zhang Weili

Namajunas knocked out Zhang with a head kick 78 seconds into their UFC 261 bout in April.

As the challenger, Namajunas was roughly a 2-1 underdog for that fight, which made sense. Zhang was riding a 21-fight winning streak, including five triumphs in the UFC.

It's also no surprise that the odds are closer for the rematch. However, what doesn't make sense is the fact that Namajunas is once again the underdog despite winning the first fight in convincing fashion. We have to take advantage of that cheap price.

Namajunas' knockout win over Zhang didn't necessarily show who the better fighter is over five rounds. You could argue - or speculate - that Zhang got caught and would have won the fight otherwise. The former champion has also made some adjustments between the Namajunas fights, including moving her training camp to the United States from her native China. Her team has been calling her "Zhang 2.0" and the rematch could look a lot different.

Having said that, it's difficult to watch Namajunas finish Zhang with ease and think, "Yeah, I think I'm going to go with Zhang as the favorite again - that seems like the right call." It's not. You can't ignore what Namajunas did in the first fight, because she could do the same thing again. Or maybe she'll use her movement to outwork Zhang for a decision win.

Fans should at least be prepared for a more competitive fight than what we saw in April - Zhang was better than that - but expect Namajunas to come out on top once again.

Al Iaquinta (+155) vs. Bobby Green

Iaquinta is back after two years out of the Octagon. He's looking to make a statement against Green, and he'll do just that.

It's understandable that Green is the favorite. Iaquinta hasn't competed since October 2019, while Green has stepped into the Octagon six times over that span. It's impossible to know how Iaquinta will look after his time away.

But fighters have shined after long layoffs in the past, so it's not a reason to stay away from Iaquinta entirely at plus money. Green is the level of fighter that Iaquinta would have beaten two years ago, so expect a similar result if Iaquinta is even remotely the same fighter that he was before.

Green is a tricky fighter, with his movement and unorthodox striking sometimes giving his opponents problems. But he's also gone to 10 straight decisions, a sign that he doesn't always pack a punch. If Iaquinta can control the pace of the fight, he should be able to land the more impactful shots en route to a clear-cut victory.

Here are the full odds for UFC 268 on Nov. 6:

Main card

• Kamaru Usman (-310) vs. Colby Covington (+245)
• Zhang Weili (-120) vs. Rose Namajunas (-110)
• Marlon Vera (-155) vs. Frankie Edgar (+125)
• Shane Burgos (-200) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+165)
• Justin Gaethje (-210) vs. Michael Chandler (+170)

Preliminary card

• Alex Pereira (-255) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+205)
• Bobby Green (-185) vs. Al Iaquinta (+155)
• Phil Hawes (-300) vs. Chris Curtis (+240)
• Nassourdine Imavov (-125) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-105)
• Ian Garry (-400) vs. Jordan Williams (+300)

Early preliminary card

• Gian Villante (-125) vs. Chris Barnett (-105)
• Dustin Jacoby (-400) vs. John Allan (+300)
• Melsik Baghdasaryan (-325) vs. Bruno Souza (+255)
• Ode' Osbourne (-185) vs. CJ Vergara (+155)