UFC 268 predictions: Does Covington have a shot at beating Usman?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 268 in New York, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.

Welterweight championship

Kamaru Usman (19-1)
vs.
Colby Covington (16-2)

Back in 2019, when Usman finished Covington during the fifth round of their instant classic, Covington proved to be Usman's toughest challenge up until that point - and that remains the case today.

Usman has displayed several improvements in the striking department through his three wins since that fight, which include knockouts of Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal earlier in 2021. Covington's sole bout was a dominant fifth-round stoppage of Tyron Woodley, and advancements in his game weren't as evident.

Having said that, Covington still has what it takes to make this another competitive match.

Covington's wrestling abilities will counter any attempts from Usman and largely prevent the fight from going to the ground. On the feet, he should be able to use his pressure and volume to get in Usman's face.

This won't be a blowout for Usman like some pundits are predicting, but I do think it will be slightly less competitive than the first bout. It's clear that Usman is the better striker from a technical perspective - he's gained more confidence in his hands since facing Covington in 2019, and his knockout power has reached new heights in his recent title defenses.

Usman will likely get stronger as this fight goes on, so Covington will have his work cut out for him if they reach Rounds 4 and 5.

By the end of the rematch, there will be no doubt about who the best welterweight in the UFC is. Expect "The Nigerian Nightmare" to win a competitive-but-clear decision or get Covington out of there in the championship rounds.

The pick: Usman, fourth-round TKO

Strawweight championship

Rose Namajunas (10-4)
vs.
Zhang Weili (21-2)

This rematch will play out much differently than the first fixture - Namajunas knocked out Zhang in 78 seconds in April - but it will still end with the same result.

It's unlikely that Namajunas will catch Zhang as early as she did the first time. It could happen, of course, but that feels like a bold prediction. Zhang will be wise to Namajunas' early attacks, remembering what happened at UFC 261.

However, Namajunas' stand-up game will still give Zhang problems since the 29-year-old's arguably the smoothest striker in the division, using sleek movement to land punches from the outside and avoid getting hit.

Zhang's best path to victory is to make this a gritty fight. She needs to get in Namajunas' face, control the pace of the fight, and land big shots from up close. In a slugfest, this would be Zhang's fight to lose.

"Magnum" should be able to make this a much more competitive fight than last time and go the distance with Namajunas. Zhang moved her training camp from her native China to the United States, so she will surely have some new tricks up her sleeve.

But after seeing what Namajunas did to her in April, it's tough not to side with the champion.

The pick: Namajunas, unanimous decision

Bantamweight bout

Frankie Edgar (24-9-1)
vs.
Marlon Vera (19-7-1)

Former UFC champion Edgar is looking to return to the win column, while Vera is looking to earn the biggest victory of his career and continue moving up the 135-pound ladder.

This match is shaping up to be a breakthrough performance for Vera.

"Chito" has looked better than ever lately, beating Davey Grant and Sean O'Malley with a narrow loss to former longtime featherweight titleholder Jose Aldo in between.

Edgar, meanwhile, is 1-3 in his past four fights, and the 40-year-old's only victory in that stretch - a split decision over Pedro Munhoz in August 2020 - easily could've been a defeat.

The best shot "The Answer" has at pulling off the upset is to get Vera to the mat, but with momentum and youth on Vera's side, the Ecuador native can use his range to pick Edgar apart on the feet before putting him down with a head kick midway through the clash.

The pick: Vera, second-round knockout

Lightweight bout

Justin Gaethje (22-3)
vs.
Michael Chandler (22-6)

And finally, the people's main event.

This fight is going to be chaos for as long as it lasts - which won't be long. For one reason or another, I've been confident for weeks that it's not getting past the first round, and I'm sticking to that.

Both guys are technical strikers, have one-punch knockout power, and like to get into brawls, so there's zero chance this fight is boring. But it could also go either way.

Gaethje gets the edge here, though. He has looked unstoppable - other than against Khabib Nurmagomedov (no shame in that) - while Chandler fell short in a somewhat surprising knockout loss to Charles Oliveira in his last match. A stand-up battle favors Gaethje ever so slightly.

"The Highlight" has seen his overall game improve so much since his early UFC losses to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez. Gaethje was just a brawler through and through back then, but now he's a technical brawler who is still entertaining to watch while being much more composed than before. On the other hand, with Chandler swinging for the fence on every punch, he could leave himself exposed to Gaethje.

Gaethje gets the upper hand thanks to his striking improvements and seemingly having a better chin than Chandler, and it's only a matter of time before he lands something big.

The pick: Gaethje, first-round knockout