UFC 269 best bets: Sneaky prop on the main card
Saturday's UFC 269 features a lightweight title fight between champion Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier, as well as Amanda Nunes' bantamweight title defense against Julianna Pena.
Poirier is a small favorite to beat Oliveira in the main event, sitting at -155 on theScore Bet. If you're eager to put a wager on this fight no matter what, then Poirier by decision at +400 seems enticing, but this is a close enough fight that it should be avoided.
Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here's a look at the two best bets for the event.
Geoff Neal-Santiago Ponzinibbio over 1.5 rounds (-160)
Not many people are talking about the welterweight bout between Neal and Ponzinibbio, but this may be the one that steals the show.
The two fighters are very even in skill (the odds have Ponzinibbio slightly favored at -125 and Neal at -105), so a decision seems like the most likely outcome.
Earlier in their careers, the two top-15 contenders used to score knockout wins with regularity, but those knockouts turned into late stoppages or decisions as they faced tougher competition.
Plus, Neal has only been finished twice in his professional career - both in the third round - and only one of Ponzinibbio's career losses came before the 1.5-round mark. Some thought durability might be an issue for Ponzinibbio after he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Li Jingliang in January, but he proved in his next outing that his chin is still solid, earning a win over Miguel Baeza in a "Fight of the Year" candidate.
Neal-Ponzinibbio has all the makings of a competitive, three-round slugfest, so betting on them to make it past the 7.5-minute mark is pretty safe.
Andre Muniz (-145) vs. Eryk Anders
Muniz is showing signs of a future middleweight contender through three UFC appearances.
After winning twice on "Dana White's Contender Series" in 2018 and 2019, Muniz signed with the UFC and picked up two straight victories - a decision and a submission. Then, earlier in 2021, the Brazilian grappler had his breakthrough performance when he became the first to submit jiu-jitsu ace Ronaldo Souza in MMA, breaking the longtime contender's arm with an armbar in Round 1. That has to be one of the more impressive feats of the year.
Muniz should have no problem taking care of business against Anders, who stepped in on short notice about a month ago after Dricus Du Plessis fell off the card.
Anders, who's been up-and-down since his 2017 UFC debut, prefers to strike with his opponents. But it's hard to imagine a scenario where Anders defends Muniz's takedown attempts and wins on the feet over 15 minutes or by knockout. Anders might stay standing in the first round but expect Muniz to close the distance and get him to the ground by the second, winning at least two rounds to secure a decision.
Muniz should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite against Anders, so taking him at -145 is wise.
Here are the full odds for UFC 269 on Dec. 11:
Main card
- Dustin Poirier (-155) vs. Charles Oliveira (+125)
- Amanda Nunes (-900) vs. Julianna Pena (+575)
- Santiago Ponzinibbio (-125) vs. Geoff Neal (-105)
- Cody Garbrandt (-140) vs. Kai Kara-France (+110)
- Sean O'Malley (-300) vs. Raulian Paiva (+240)
Preliminary card
- Josh Emmett (-160) vs. Dan Ige (+130)
- Pedro Munhoz (-115) vs. Dominick Cruz (-115)
- Augusto Sakai (-115) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-115)
- Bruno Silva (-360) vs. Jordan Wright (+280)
Early preliminary card
- Andre Muniz (-145) vs. Eryk Anders (+115)
- Miranda Maverick (-135) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+105)
- Ryan Hall (-210) vs. Darrick Minner (+170)
- Randy Costa (-185) vs. Tony Kelley (+155)
- Gillian Robertson (-400) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+300)