UFC 269 predictions: Is Poirier destined for undisputed gold?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 269 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Lightweight championship
Charles Oliveira (31-8, 1 NC)
vs.
Dustin Poirier (28-6, 1 NC)
This is one hell of a way to end the UFC's run of pay-per-view events in 2021.
Despite capturing the vacant lightweight title against Michael Chandler in May, Oliveira has yet to prove he's indeed the promotion's top 155-pound fighter in the wake of Khabib Nurmagomedov's October 2020 retirement.
Standing in the way of that confirmation over the past seven months has been Poirier, a former interim champ whom many pegged as the No. 1 guy after Nurmagomedov rode off into the sunset. Now, Oliveira gets his chance, and Poirier has another shot to become undisputed champion after falling to Nurmagomedov in a 2019 unification bout.
On paper, Oliveira-Poirier is an extremely tough fight to call. While the prevailing wisdom is that Oliveira has an advantage on the ground and Poirier is superior on the feet, both men are highly skilled in every department of MMA.
That should make for a compelling contest, one in which the length of the fight will have a great impact on who comes out victorious. Of course, Oliveira could get Poirier to the mat in Round 1 and choke him out, or Poirier's slick boxing could cause problems for Oliveira and he could connect with a hard punch to shut out the champion's lights. But I suspect we'll see big moments from both sides in a back-and-forth battle.
To me, if Poirier can drag Oliveira into deep waters, this is his fight to lose. He thrived in the late rounds against Dan Hooker; he also went the distance with Max Holloway and outlasted Justin Gaethje en route to a fourth-round TKO. The key here is those were all "Fight of the Year" candidates. We don't have nearly as much evidence that Oliveira can get into a tough fight and emerge victorious in those championship rounds.
Some fighters have accused Oliveira of quitting in the past, and although "Do Bronx" is a much different fighter than he was back then, there aren't many combatants with more heart and toughness than Poirier. So, barring an early start by Oliveira that overwhelms Poirier, "The Diamond" is going to walk out of the Octagon with the undisputed belt.
The pick: Poirier, fourth-round TKO
Women's bantamweight championship
Amanda Nunes (21-4)
vs.
Julianna Pena (10-4)
Pena's path to victory against Nunes is to take her down and submit her or batter her with ground-and-pound. But for the 5-1 underdog, it's far easier said than done.
The problem with that game plan is that Nunes is an elite grappler herself. The 2014 version of Nunes who got ground-and-pound TKO'd by Cat Zingano doesn't exist anymore. So to think Pena will go out in Round 1, score a takedown, and do the same thing in the other four rounds or otherwise find a finish just isn't realistic.
As it goes with most of Nunes' fights these days, I'm picking her to counter her opponent's strength - in Pena's case, wrestling. Nunes will keep this one standing, pressure Pena, land hard shots, and either knock her out or drop her before a submission.
Pena's only chance to win the bantamweight title is if Nunes gets too aggressive while trying to finish her, gasses out, and the challenger makes it to the championship rounds. That's where she could potentially apply her wrestling game plan and catch Nunes in a choke. But that's an absolutely ideal scenario for Pena, and ideal scenarios usually don't happen when you're fighting "The Lioness."
The pick: Nunes, second-round TKO
Welterweight bout
Geoff Neal (13-4)
vs.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4)
Neal and Ponzinibbio have a good chance of stealing "Fight of the Night" on Saturday.
There won't be much room for error in this battle of powerful punchers. They are very close in skill level, so expect the rounds to be competitive and for a small number of strikes to decide who wins.
Neal had a terrific start to his UFC career, scoring five wins in a row, four of which coming inside the distance. But his success waned in the past year as he took steps up in competition against Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. Now he's looking to snap his first losing streak.
The biggest issue with Neal's game is his lack of output - the fight with Magny was especially frustrating at times - and that's where Ponzinibbio appears to have the edge.
Ponzinibbio loves to walk forward and throw big punches at a high rate. As long as he doesn't get too aggressive and walk into a big Neal punch, I'm leaning toward the Argentinian to get the job done using 15 minutes of volume.
The pick: Ponzinibbio, unanimous decision
Flyweight bout
Kai Kara-France (22-9, 1 NC)
vs.
Cody Garbrandt (12-4)
Garbrandt looked great on the scale ahead of his flyweight debut, hitting 126 pounds. While that's a promising sign of what's to come, there's still no telling how the former bantamweight champion will perform at the lower weight.
Despite the uncertainties on Garbrandt's side and the fact Kara-France is a top talent with crisp striking and knockout power, I find myself leaning toward the ex-champ to move to 1-0 as a flyweight.
Garbrandt has more UFC experience and has faced a much higher level of competition. Meanwhile, Kara-France has never fought someone quite like Garbrandt - with the exception of his 2019 bout with Brandon Moreno, but that was more than a year before Moreno emerged as a top flyweight in the promotion.
Garbrandt coming in as an ex-bantamweight could work to his advantage as the bigger and stronger man. Ultimately, "No Love" should be able to control the striking exchanges and his offense should have more of an impact over 15 minutes.
However, if he comes in depleted, this could look a lot like fellow ex-bantamweight champ TJ Dillashaw's brief venture at 125 pounds in 2019.
The pick: Garbrandt, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Raulian Paiva (21-3)
vs.
Sean O'Malley (14-1)
Contrary to the wider public belief, this isn't a gimme fight for O'Malley by any means.
After beating Kyler Phillips, Paiva should be considered a legitimate prospect in the bantamweight division. He's aggressive on the feet, has solid takedowns, and is tough.
That said, Paiva - who used to compete at flyweight - will have to overcome some physical disadvantages to pull off the upset. O'Malley is three inches taller than him at 5-foot-11 and has a 2.5-reach advantage; "Sugar" uses his length especially well.
O'Malley - one of the most hyped rising stars at 135 pounds - deserves to be favored. As the bigger man and the more technical, powerful striker, he should be able to get past Paiva. But this fight will be more competitive than people think - until O'Malley lands the fight-ending shot.
The pick: O'Malley, third-round TKO
