UFC 271 best bets: Ride with the knockout king

Saturday's UFC 271 features a rematch between middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker.

Adesanya is a rather heavy favorite to beat Whittaker again, sitting at -290 on theScore Bet. While "The Last Stylebender" should be favored, those odds are too wide. If you have faith in Whittaker's adjustments and improvements since losing the title to Adesanya in 2019, sprinkle a little bit on him. But otherwise, stay away from the main event.

Before the action gets underway at the Toyota Center in Houston, here's a look at the two best bets for the event.

Derrick Lewis (-180) vs. Tai Tuivasa

Lewis routinely beats fighters of Tuivasa's caliber. That won't change Saturday.

It's understandable why Lewis is less than a 2-to-1 favorite. Heavyweight is the most volatile division in the UFC - anything can happen at any moment. But Lewis is far better than any fighter Tuivasa has beaten.

"The Black Beast" has won against current UFC champion Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes, and Alexander Volkov. Meanwhile, Tuivasa's best win came against Augusto Sakai. Their resumes aren't close to comparable.

Lewis is no doubt beatable, but Tuivasa isn't the kind of fighter who has historically had their way with Lewis. Tuivasa is a brawler like Lewis, and though he has made significant improvements over the past two years, his style is why Lewis wins. "Bam Bam" will look to knock Lewis out - until he gets knocked out himself.

Expect this to be a slugfest for as long as it lasts. Those are the kinds of fights in which Lewis - who has the most knockouts in UFC history - often comes out on top, especially against someone at Tuivasa's level. And even at -180, there's value on the former heavyweight title challenger.

Casey O'Neill (-400) / Green-Haqparast over 2.5 rounds (-250)

$100 parlay to net $75

O'Neill is one of the brightest prospects in the sport and will look to keep the train rolling against women's MMA pioneer Roxanne Modafferi, who is retiring after UFC 271. O'Neill should have no problem adding another win to her resume.

Modafferi's biggest strength - and most probable path to victory against the heavily favored O'Neill - is her grappling. But the problem is that O'Neill also does her best work on the ground. She is stronger than Modafferi, so it wouldn't be surprising if O'Neill can control her - something that doesn't happen very often - and bust her up with ground-and-pound. O'Neill is also better than her more experienced opponent on the feet, so that'll come in handy if this turns into a kickboxing match.

Modafferi is as tough as they come, and while she'll have a glimmer of hope if O'Neill's takedown defense isn't as good as we thought, she's going to be outmatched in this fight.

The other half of the parlay sees Bobby Green take on Nasrat Haqparast in a lightweight bout - and it's one that will go past two-and-a-half rounds, if not go the distance.

Historically, neither Green nor Naqparast are potent finishers - nor do they get finished all that often either. Thirteen of Green's 17 UFC bouts have gone the distance, while six of Haqparast's eight have made it to the final horn.

Green and Haqparast are both defense-minded fighters. Although it's not unimaginable for them to score finishes, it seems likely we're in for a longer fight given the matchup.

Here are the full odds for UFC 271 on Feb. 12:

Main card

• Israel Adesanya (-290) vs. Robert Whittaker (+235)
• Derrick Lewis (-180) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+150)
• Jared Cannonier (-165) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
• Renato Moicano (-165) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+135)
• Bobby Green (-155) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+125)

Preliminary card

• Andrei Arlovski (-155) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+125)
• Casey O'Neill (-400) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+300)
• Kyler Phillips (-425) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+325)
• Carlos Ulberg (-270) vs. Fabio Cherant (+220)

Early preliminary card

• Ronnie Lawrence (-320) vs. Mana Martinez (+250)
• AJ Dobson (-120) vs. Jacob Malkoun (-110)
• Sergey Morozov (-220) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+175)
• Jeremiah Wells (-240) vs. Blood Diamond (+190)
• Maxim Grishin (-180) vs. William Knight (+150)